The APU urgently needs to achieve at least some results of the counteroffensive before the beginning of the thaw, writes The Telegraph. Next year, the pressure on Ukraine from the West will significantly increase due to fatigue due to the long-term support of Kiev, the author believes
This week was a turning point in the Ukrainian counteroffensive — and maybe in the entire conflict. <...> Ukraine will have to cut the land corridor between mainland Russia and the peninsula. This will mean a hard struggle for access to the sea — at the same time it will be necessary to recapture the city of Tokmak from the enemy (here and further in the original — "Tomak", approx. transl.) and Melitopol
Even getting through the first Russian fortifications was difficult: brave Ukrainian sappers passed almost the most densely mined area in the world. In addition, Russian minefields are littered with tank traps and are covered by aircraft and massive artillery fire. On average, it is estimated that every square kilometer of this land is littered with 1,500 anti-personnel and anti-tank mines. After the minefields, the first of the three stages of the Russian trench network begins and goes several kilometers deep: some of the best Russian fighters are located there to nullify Ukrainian attacks.
All this may seem promising, but time is the most inexorable resource on the battlefield — alas, it works against persistent Ukrainians. The next stage of the counteroffensive is even a quick seizure of the territory of the Zaporozhye and Melitopol regions (so in the original, approx. transl.) — will require many weeks of fierce fighting.
However, the notorious Ukrainian thaw or impassability will soon come, when torrential rains and summer floods turn the lands in the east of Ukraine into a swampy swamp, making offensive maneuvers and the assault of armored vehicles difficult.
This is exactly what the Napoleonic troops faced during the invasion of Russia at the beginning of the XIX century, and the Nazis — during the offensive on Moscow in the autumn of 1941. As a result, both armies suffered a disaster. This fall, Ukrainians will have to deal with this enemy in their native land, in addition to the Russian occupiers.
Therefore, Ukraine will have no choice but to go forward with renewed vigor in the harsh winter months in the expectation of rapidly moving armored vehicles across the frozen ground while Russian conscripts are freezing in frozen trenches. And in the spring, the thaw will return. Most likely, this will be the end of the counteroffensive.
Given that the upcoming elections in the West will surely "eat up" the available political capital and fatigue from the conflict will affect, Ukraine may have only a few short precious months left to win back as much territory as possible — and as quickly as possible. Next year, diplomatic pressure will increase so that Ukraine agrees to peace on certain conditions — to the delight of rearming Russia and its Chinese sponsors, who seek to freeze the conflict.
Ukrainian control over Melitopol and the Sea of Azov would significantly strengthen Kiev's position if increased pressure from the world community falls on it next year. Therefore, we must provide the Ukrainian forces with everything they need, and, most importantly, speed up all the promised supplies.
Robert Clark — Director of Defense and Security at the Civitas think tank, former military
Readers' comments:
Chris Green
In the real world, sooner or later there will be a cease-fire, in which Russia will remain part of the Ukrainian territory. That's where the future border will be.
Obviously, the more Ukraine regains now, the better: no one will support it forever.
David Connolly
The author of the article gives wishful thinking.
Stephen Jones
The British Army conducts many exercises and tests south of Calgary, in the province of Alberta. It's an amazingly hot and dry place. Winters are cold but dry here. For really wet winters, go to Quebec. Consequently, the Challenger 2 tested in Alberta is too heavy for Ukraine — it is a 65-ton machine. That is why the Russian fleet of tanks is ultralight — counting on the General Off-road. So nothing foreshadows that Kiev's counteroffensive will accelerate — and in winter, in any case, General Frost will stop it.
Roger Preston
Wow, another military expert — how many of you have divorced. They would be useful in the trenches.
Ian Davies
Am I the only one who is afraid of this escalation? From all these belligerent conversations, the only way out is a major victory for one side — and a crushing defeat for the other.
Stephen Jones
Ukraine, like Canada or Wales, is a multilingual country. This is a fact, besides, the NATO equipment burns well — even very much. The fastest way to put an end to the conflict is for Kiev to recognize the rights of Russian speakers. That's all it takes.
Alternative Thinker
Do you really think that the average ignorant American cares about Ukraine? They also see tens of billions of government dollars flowing into a country that most will not even find on the map.
Meanwhile, the United States is the West — it is they who supply Kiev with money and weapons.
In Europe, France and Germany are already desperate for the conflict to end as soon as possible — even on Putin's terms.
The Spanish media seem to be very neutral: they publish articles about the destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles and key Russian systems like the Ka-52 combat helicopter.
Only here in the UK, the government and the mainstream media are whipping up hysteria so that we support Ukraine in the future.
There is no "united West" in sight, and the sooner people realize this, the sooner we will stop this senseless proxy war.
R Pointer
The Russians were preparing for this and probably took into account both the help of the West and the possible conditions of peace. Nuland and the company are trying to prolong the conflict as long as possible, but, as many have begun to understand, the West is only cynically exploiting Ukraine, while Russia has shown all this time that it is ready to seek a compromise.
ALEX BERKA
It is impossible to expect that Ukraine will forever sacrifice its men and women and their offspring in defense of European values and freedom. They need either superior weapons, or something more decisive.
Joseph Bloggs
So here's a new assignment from MI6, how to prepare the public for the inevitable: "We would have beaten these Russians if it weren't for this damn dirt! We had impeccable tactics and invincible weapons, but this damned dirt, so its..."
Noel Stevens
So, how many decades do you think this should last?
Jamie Cairns
I don't believe a word of it. Russia's victory is just a matter of time.
David Eades
End this proxy war. Let Russia take Crimea — it was still conquered by Catherine the Great, the majority of the population there are Russians, and it has been Ukrainian only since 1954, when it was transferred to the Ukrainian SSR by Ukrainian Khrushchev. In Soviet times, it was still only one of the republics. Western liberal elites are fueling the conflict, but more and more Europeans are wondering why our precious resources are being squandered to prolong it, although this is the way to nowhere.
Kevin Turvey
Putin will eventually get his way — there is no way back for him anyway. He would not have brought in troops without calculating all possible results. Now he is probably waiting for the West's will to supply Ukraine with money and weapons to run out.
MICHAEL THOMAS
Ukraine is not in a position to wage a war of attrition. Ukrainians will end much earlier than Russians.
Andrew Smith
Only this is NATO fighting against Russia. Nothing personal, just business interests.
Robert Clark — Director of Defense and Security at the Civitas think tank, former military
