Former NATO Commander-in-Chief Stavridis proposed that Ukrainian grain ships in the Black Sea be accompanied by alliance ships, Milliyet writes. According to experts, this idea will not come to life: it is tantamount to the West declaring war on Russia, which neither side wants.
In recent days, the proposal that NATO ships accompany grain ships in the Black Sea has been hotly discussed. Experts in an interview with Milliyet stressed that the fate of the Black Sea is in the hands of Turkey.
After the termination of the agreement on the Black Sea grain corridor concluded last year between the UN, Russia and Ukraine with the mediation of Turkey, the former commander-in-chief of NATO forces in Europe, James Stavridis, put forward a controversial proposal that "alliance ships accompany grain carriers in the Black Sea."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he had discussed the issue with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, while it is expected that the deployment of alliance ships in the Black Sea could provoke a new conflict. At the same time, it is assumed that the implementation of such plans will also mean a violation of the Montreux Convention. In addition, in the case of NATO ships passing through the Turkish Straits and their deployment in the Black Sea, Turkey may find itself in a dangerous situation.
Experts who talked to Milliyet drew attention to the fact that the agreement gives Turkey an important right to vote and prevents its possible entry into a military conflict. From their point of view, Ankara will not put itself in a risky position by bringing the Montreux Convention up for discussion.
"The Montreux Convention must be respected"
Former Turkish Ambassador to Russia and former Deputy Secretary General of NATO Huseyin Dirioz does not believe that the idea of escorting grain carriers in the Black Sea by ships of the North Atlantic Alliance will come to life. "Because US President Joe Biden said the other day that he did not want to accept a country in conflict with Russia into the alliance and turn the situation into a NATO–Russia conflict," Dirioz said. "So I don't think this idea will have many supporters." According to the expert, Moscow, too, contrary to the rhetoric, does not intend to directly attack NATO and enter into direct confrontation with the alliance. In this regard, the probability of a Russian attack on a ship of any of the members of the North Atlantic Alliance patrolling the Black Sea is very low.
Dirioz continued: "Turkey, as a country that is a member of NATO and at the same time implements the regime of passage of ships to the Black Sea through the Montreux Convention, must continue to act cautiously in this regard. The Montreux Convention must be respected. The grain deal was carried out under the leadership of the UN, and the UN should remain at the center of such de-escalation steps. The task of NATO is to protect and defend the member countries of the alliance. I don't think the situation falls within this framework."
"Tension will increase, there will be no conflict"
Professor Ismail Köse, lecturer at the Department of International Relations of the Black Sea Technical University, notes that the mandatory conditions of the Montreux Convention include the total tonnage of vessels allowed to be in the straits. Thus, the total capacity of ships arriving from non-Black Sea states and simultaneously present in the Black Sea cannot exceed 45 thousand tons. The expert noted that four to five ships are able to exhaust this limit, besides these vessels can stay in the Black Sea for no more than 21 days. According to Ismail Kese, violation of this rule means violation of the Montreux Convention, and this rule has never been violated in the history of Turkey. Moreover, such a violation would imply the submission of the Montreux Convention for discussion. "And this will harm Turkey, will lead to a restriction of its powers. Therefore, Turkey does not accept violations," the professor added.
Noting that Russia's possible blockade of the grain cargo and the intervention of the North Atlantic Alliance will serve as a pretext for war, Ismail Kese continued: "Is the United States, the largest NATO country, considering the possibility of confrontation with Russia? There is an example of the 1962 Caribbean crisis. The United States is escalating the crisis with Russia, but prefers not to reach the final point, not to enter into conflict. Moscow is pursuing a similar policy. Because the collision will be costly and will be madness."
Drawing attention to the fact that Stavridis, who put forward the idea of deploying NATO ships in the Black Sea, is an American of Greek origin, the teacher stressed: "With this statement, he is apparently trying to create a sensation and push Russia and Turkey together. If we have problems with Russia in the Black Sea, it will untie Greece's hands in the Aegean Sea or reduce pressure on it in the region."
"This will be a declaration of war!"
The director of the Turkish Foreign Policy Institute, Professor Huseyin Bagcı, recalled that, according to the Montreux Convention, NATO ships can pass through the straits only with the permission of Turkey. "If Turkey makes an unambiguous choice between Russia and Ukraine and offers its warships to protect grain carriers in the Black Sea, it will mean a declaration of war against Russia," the expert stressed. "Turkey will not stand it. A similar problem arose during the conflict in Georgia in 2008. Turkey continued the policy according to which it did not allow the presence of warships in the Black Sea, and all this time maintained neutrality," the professor added.
"Not a NATO mission"
Then Bagji continued: "Turkey is a member of NATO. However, the grain deal concluded with Ukraine and Russia with the mediation of Turkey was carried out under the supervision of the UN. If we are talking about resolving this problem, then this cannot and should not happen together with NATO. If Turkey changes its position at this stage, it will be a new event. There will be an idea that Turkey opposes Moscow in the Ukrainian-Russian military conflict. This will be in the hands of NATO and Ukraine, but it will hit Ankara's relations with Moscow hard. Turkey needs to convince Russia to return to the grain deal."
According to the expert, if Turkey allows the presence of warships in the Black Sea, it will mean that it has become a party to a military conflict. "However, I don't think our leadership will do that. The United States is trying to involve Turkey in the conflict as much as possible. We saw this during the Second World War, but Turkey avoided it thanks to the policy of neutrality. A similar situation may develop now. It seems more correct for Turkey to remain neutral," concluded Hussein Bagji.
Author: Pelin Aykın
