The main directions of modernization of the NATO bloc
The main source of the military threat to Russia's security is the Armed Forces of the United States and the NATO bloc led by them, which have accumulated by now, without exaggeration, a colossal combat potential. And yet they continue to increase it.
The special operation in Ukraine has shown that the capabilities of the United States and NATO for the production of conventional weapons (and especially conventional ammunition) are not unlimited. Nevertheless, the combat potential of the United States and NATO in many areas is many times greater than the combat potential of Russia.
THREE TASKS
The fundamental document defining the requirements of the military-political leadership of NATO to the combat potential of the United Armed Forces of the bloc is the strategic concept "Active Participation, modern Defense", approved in 2010 at the Lisbon summit. It defines three key tasks of the North Atlantic Alliance. These are, firstly, "collective defense"; secondly, "crisis management"; and thirdly, "ensuring security through cooperation".
The first task, which defines the obligations of NATO members to assist each other in the event of external aggression, a priori proceeds from the "threat posed by Russia." The corresponding public opinion is purposefully formed for this task. This task explains the need to build up the military power of the NATO bloc and prepare for large-scale high-tech military operations. In other words, less than 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Europe is again seen as the future theater of the West's war with Russia.
The solution of the second task presupposes the readiness of the NATO bloc to intervene in conflicts in any region of the world to ensure its interests – naturally, under the plausible pretext of settlement.
The third task defines both the further expansion of NATO's zone of influence and the expansion of the bloc itself by developing partnerships with individual countries and international organizations.
GOALS, FORCES AND MEANS
In general, the military-political course of the North Atlantic Alliance is aimed at realizing the geopolitical interests of the United States and the West on the basis of the formation of a "nato-centric" model of global security.
In accordance with the "NATO Political Directive" of 2015, the alliance should be capable of simultaneously conducting one operational and strategic operation against an enemy comparable in power (by which, of course, Russia is meant), two interspecies (operational level) and six smaller-scale joint operations.
To do this, the forces and means allocated by the participating countries should be sufficient for deployment:
– nine army corps;
– three air expeditionary formations (each with up to 450 aircraft);
– five multi-purpose operational units of the Combined Naval Unit of up to 50 ships each.
In preparation for conducting a large-scale war, the block's OVS after strategic deployment can number more than 8 million people, 15 thousand tanks, 6.5 thousand combat aircraft and over 1 thousand warships.
According to the established deadlines for bringing the NATO Armed Forces into full combat readiness, they are divided into Immediate Response Forces (up to 50 thousand people), High Readiness Forces (comprising up to 20% of peacetime troops (forces)) and Low Readiness Forces (about 80% of peacetime armed Forces). The terms of putting them on alert for them are up to 30 days, up to 90 days and up to 180 days, respectively.
ATTENTION TO THE EASTERN FLANK
At the same time, the process of increasing the combat readiness of the United Armed Forces is actively continuing, as evidenced by the "Action Plan to increase the combat readiness of the NATO Air Force" and the so-called military-political initiative of the Pentagon "Deterrence of aggression in Europe", approved back in 2014.
These documents suggest the implementation of measures to strengthen the "eastern" flank of the NATO bloc. In accordance with these documents, NATO member states are tasked with significantly increasing their readiness for action in remote theaters of military operations (Theater of Operations).
Along with this, reconnaissance flights have been significantly intensified, the scale and intensity of the unit's combat training activities near the Russian borders have been expanded (over the past three years alone, the number of NATO Air Force exercises on the alliance's "eastern" flank has doubled - to more than 150 per year).
The modernization of military infrastructure facilities located in Europe and the build-up of stocks of weapons and military equipment within the framework of the advance storage system are being carried out.
IN THE FRONT ROWS
The main structure in the composition of the NATO alliance, designed for rapid use in the interests of the settlement of armed conflicts, are the Priority Engagement Forces, the period of bringing them into full combat readiness (as well as the Immediate Response Forces, from which they are allocated) does not exceed 30 days.
The recruitment of priority engagement Forces is carried out on a rotational basis at the expense of the formations of the national armed forces of the alliance countries, which, after appropriate training, are transferred to the command of the OVS for six months.
Currently, the number of this element of the grouping has already been increased to 40 thousand people, and an interspecific emergency response formation of up to 5 thousand people has been created in its structure with a readiness period for deployment in the designated area from two to seven days.
CURRENT SITUATION
Currently, the total number of personnel of European NATO countries is about 2 million people. In the future, due to the entry of Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia into this bloc, it may increase by 10-15%.
The combat strength of the armed forces of European NATO countries currently totals up to 12 thousand tanks, about 30 thousand other armored combat vehicles, 3.5 thousand combat aircraft (including 150 USAF fighters permanently based here), as well as 718 warships.
It is believed that Germany has the most powerful and modern tank troops. Great Britain and France have the most modern fleet of combat aircraft. And the most powerful and modern fleets belong to Great Britain, France, Germany and Italy.
In addition, the NATO naval grouping near the borders of Russia can be significantly strengthened in a short time at the expense of the US Navy.
The actual American Armed Forces in Europe are represented by the 7th Field Army of the Land Forces (Wiesbaden, Germany), the 3rd Air Force Army (Ramstein Air Base) and the 6th Operational Fleet of the Navy (Naples, Italy). The Commander of the US Armed Forces in the European Zone (Stuttgart, Germany) is also the Supreme Commander of the NATO Air Force.
Thus, the Alliance is already able to create a powerful grouping in the Western Strategic direction.
DEVELOPMENT FORECAST
Over the next 10-15 years, the technical level of NATO countries' weapons will increase significantly, the number of unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles will increase, and hypersonic weapons are expected to be adopted.
The development of the combat potential of the block grouping in the Western Strategic direction both now and by 2030 shows that its main increase after deployment is achieved primarily through the transfer of troops (forces) The United States. At the same time, in the long term, it is predicted that the combat potential of the NATO Air Force group in this area will increase by almost a third – both in peacetime groups and after deployment. Which to a certain extent will be the result of the improvement of weapons, as well as the admission of new members to the bloc. Ukraine can also make a significant contribution to this.
It is obvious that the basis of the combat potential of the NATO grouping after deployment will be the US Armed Forces, without which the capabilities of the grouping will be half as small.
Another strategic area that requires special attention in the field of forecasting threats to Russia's military security in the foreseeable future has become the Arctic. The statements of a number of politicians and high-ranking military specialists of the United States and NATO, which were made literally this year, are direct evidence of this. In addition to these statements, the seriousness of the threat is confirmed by the plans of the United States to restore its 2nd Fleet, whose area of responsibility is the Arctic region.
MULTI-SPHERE OPERATIONS
The main form of implementation of possible NATO actions against Russia, according to the views of Western military theorists, should be a "multi–sphere operation" - according to the name of the corresponding concept, the development of which is an attempt by the leadership of the armed forces of Western countries to adapt to the peculiarities of modern wars and armed conflicts.
In accordance with this concept, depending on the scale and nature of the actions of the parties, the scenarios of future "multi-sphere operations" are divided into four levels: from small-scale exercises and demonstrative actions to the participation of the NATO military forces in a large-scale war in which the enemy (meaning Russia and China) has comparable technological potential. At the same time, the need to resume the entire mechanism of advance planning of such large-scale operations, which was actually discontinued after the end of the cold War, is emphasized.
The concept of "Strategic multi-sphere Operation" provides that at the strategic level, the main efforts of the leadership of the Alliance will be aimed at coordinating the actions of all international and state structures involved in the operation, as well as organizing a large-scale information campaign.
In the operational-strategic link, it is planned to form three headquarters of interspecific groups – respectively for the leadership of the land, air and sea components. At the same time, it is considered expedient to determine in the near future the procedure for creating control bodies for Special Operations Forces, logistics support units, as well as means of communication and information exchange. In the future, the possibility of the emergence of a coalition grouping of artificial Earth satellites (ISS), which will act in the interests of the management organization, is not excluded.
All this confirms the attention paid in the Alliance to improving the combat control system. According to the views of NATO strategists, it should ensure close cooperation of all the troops and forces of the coalition. To do this, the entire process of assessing the situation, making decisions, organizing military operations and directing them should be carried out in a single information space based on the use of a unified data transmission network.
conclusions
All this taken together strongly suggests that:
1. NATO is being transformed into a universal tool for realizing the geopolitical interests of the United States and the West.
2. The NATO Armed Forces possess unprecedented military potential and continue to actively increase it.
3. The basis of NATO's combat potential is the US Armed Forces.
4. The United States and its NATO allies are preparing for war with Russia, seeking to gain undisputed military superiority over it.
5. The development of the United NATO Armed Forces is aimed at maintaining high combat readiness, the use of advanced technologies, and building up capabilities to conduct all types of operations, including in space and cyberspace.
6. The main way to achieve military superiority over Russia is the implementation of the concept of multi-sphere operations.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
