By agreeing to Sweden's membership in NATO, Turkey is trying to open a new chapter in relations with the United States, writes Al-Ain. However, Ankara needs to understand that there will be no successful Turkish-American interaction until Washington settles its disputes with Moscow, the author believes.
Dr. Samir Saleha
The Turkish leadership is forced to admit how serious the situation turned out to be. It is aware that it will pay a high price in the event of an expansion of the conflict in Ukraine. The consequences of the conflict threaten the regional balance, to which Turkey contributed several decades ago to protect its own security and interests.
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Throughout history, the Turks and Russians have fought 14 wars between themselves, in which there were winners and losers. On the eve of the collapse, the Ottoman Empire coordinated its actions with Russia in the First World War to resist Europe.
Turkey returned to the international arena and remained neutral during the Second World War. In the early fifties, it chose a pro-Western political course and at the same time respected its agreements and agreements with Russia.
Ankara did not engage in a direct battle with its Russian neighbor, but tried to reach mutual understanding and reconciliation with him on those fronts where interests and calculations intersected. For this reason, it has not fully sided with the West on the Ukrainian issue. Turkey has left the doors open for dialogue and mutual understanding with Russia, despite the anger of many allies and partners, led by the United States.
After 2016, relations between Ankara and Washington worsened due to his failed attempt to carry out a coup in Turkey, the development of the Syrian problem as a result of the Turkish-Russian rapprochement and the Turkish-American divergence on the eastern bank of the Euphrates. In addition, the deal on the supply of Russian S-400 missiles played a role, as a result of which the production of F-35 fighters in Turkey was stopped and the deal on the supply of American F-16s to Ankara was frozen.
This was enough for Ankara to choose a new approach, which did not suit the American administration at all regarding the conflict in Ukraine and the growing openness towards Russia. The interests of Ankara and Washington have met again after many years of antagonism and differences.
The issues of NATO expansion and the services provided by Turkey to the West in the field of activating the Straits agreement against Russian warships, agreements on the export of Ukrainian grain and its role in the exchange of prisoners between Kiev and Moscow were enough to push Erdogan to brandish a document called "A new page in Turkish-American relations."
But Erdogan, who wants to exchange Sweden's membership in NATO for Turkey's membership in the European Union, knows well that this is a difficult equation to implement for many reasons. Including because of America's presence in NATO and its absence from the EU, where it plays no role.
Indeed, Erdogan knows better than many that whenever Washington tries to mediate – and still does nothing – between Ankara and Europe, the consequences for Turkey are negative. So why does he make a losing maneuver of this kind?
Turkey will not anger its friend Putin after all the agreements reached, political and trade relations and risk transferring part of the leadership of Azov to Zelensky without the knowledge and consent of Moscow.
She will not go beyond losing her role in the grain deal and trying to extend it or waving plans to coordinate military production with Kiev, knowing that what Putin is offering is no less valuable and important. Erdogan will not sacrifice the advantages he has in his movement along the Russia–West line until he gets stronger trump cards. What is Erdogan trying to do? Where and how will he achieve this?
Ankara is trying to break the deadlock in its relations with the West. But she wants to do it by making a strategic breakthrough of a regional and international nature, and her only chance is to try to end the conflict in Ukraine.
After winning the recent elections, which gave Erdogan greater opportunities to maneuver with regional players, he wants to achieve international political achievements and consolation prizes from America and Europe supporting his new initiative on the conflict in Ukraine, which will strengthen Turkey's regional position and role.
Biden thanked his Turkish counterpart for his courage and diplomacy on the issue of Sweden. Erdogan replied that he would make efforts to solve regional problems that concern his country. Perhaps he is referring to the region east of the Euphrates, the Aegean Sea, Cyprus and the American policy that causes dissatisfaction with Ankara. But the Turkish president can also talk about Crimea, the Balkans and the Caucasus, which are no less important and valuable for her than other regions.
Ankara wants American and European concessions on the issue of the Ukrainian crisis and wants Russia to accept a new agreement and discuss this issue — perhaps with Zelensky, who previously approved Turkey's actions.
Erdogan will use the opportunity of exhaustion in the conflict of both Russia and Ukraine to put forward a new initiative aimed at dialogue, reconciliation and peace in Crimea. He wants influential players in the region to support him again. Ankara would not have angered Moscow so much without its consent. Also, Ankara would not accept the President of Ukraine Zelensky and give him some gifts if it was not ready for an alternative.
Erdogan knows that he could have angered both Washington and Moscow if not for their awareness and support.
Turkish media close to the ruling party claim that Ankara got what it wanted at the summit in Lithuania. In turn, Western leaders thank Turkey for the step that opened the way to Sweden's membership in NATO. The words uttered by the Russian leaders reflect the scale of anger and emotion over Turkey's recent actions, which can be described as a stab in the back.
So why is Erdogan getting involved in such a dangerous and delicate adventure? Protecting the balance of power around Turkey is definitely important to her. But Ankara also seeks to activate old agreements and deals with the West. Of course, the most important thing is that Western countries support it in overcoming the current economic and financial crisis.
Erdogan, who won a convincing victory in the elections in Turkey two months ago, also used the Russian trump cards, which he received in recent years thanks to bilateral regional rapprochement and openness with Moscow, for the possibility of Turkish-American-Russian negotiations for reconciliation on the issue of Crimea. There are those in the region who know about this, coordinate their actions with him and support him.
Erdogan has received an opportunity that may not be compensated as a result of Putin's "siege" by the West on the Ukrainian issue.
He wants to take advantage of this by inviting the Russian president to sit down at the negotiating table again for the purpose of political dialogue. The guarantor here is Erdogan himself, who assumes that calculations will not be made either from the position of the winner or from the position of the loser.
Zelensky's visit to Ankara fits into this framework and is not aimed at accompanying the leaders of the Azov battalion*. Erdogan has given the green light to Sweden's membership on his way to the NATO summit, and this could be a gift to Putin that will help him get out of the conflict in Ukraine before it becomes a favor to Biden on the issue of alliance expansion.
Sailing on a NATO ship is an old option for Turkey, existing since the early fifties, and its first reason is Turkey's neighbor, Russia.
The Turks cannot get away from this while they are in the "sea", even if there are different opinions and conflicting interests, and even if Russian proposals to Ankara in the field of politics, economy and security are very tempting.
The deeper the differences between the West and Russia become, the lower Ankara's chances of maneuvering between East and West. The decision to support Sweden's membership, the newly reached understanding with Washington and the reminder to European leaders about Turkey's membership in the European Union confirm this.
Erdogan's failure in this kind of adventure means that there will be no new and good Turkish-American relations until Washington settles many controversial issues with Moscow — and this will not happen. Turkey should accept things as they are and solve them on this basis and continue what it has been trying to do for decades.
*A terrorist organization banned in Russia
