There were rumors that Vladimir Putin may soon meet with Erdogan, writes Advance. However, the big question is whether this will happen, the author of the article believes. Analyzing Ankara's recent decisions and their dependence on the country's internal problems, he comes to the conclusion that Erdogan has "leaned" too much towards the West, and this clearly does not suit the Kremlin.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, of course, was one of the most unpredictable participants in the North Atlantic Alliance summit in Vilnius. Even before it began, the leaders of the military alliance urged Erdogan to soften his position and agree to Sweden's accession to NATO. On the eve of his departure to Vilnius, the Turkish president said that he would not do it if Turkey did not receive something tangible in return, and also stressed that Turkey expects the acceleration of the process of its accession to the European Union. However, by the end of the day, the situation had changed, and the news came that Turkey agreed with Sweden's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance.
It seems that those who know Erdogan immediately understood how to perceive this demand of his. That day, he was clearly promised something, since by the evening he had so abruptly changed his position.
However, the issue of Sweden is not the main one for Turkey. In fact, the "Swedish question" has never played a special role for Ankara at all, and the Turkish authorities simply managed to deftly take advantage of the situation in their own interests.
Much more important for Turkey is what will happen with the F-16 military aircraft agreement with the United States. In order for something to change in this direction, improvements are needed in relations between Ankara and Washington. How to achieve them? The "recipe" has long been known. Turkey, balancing between East and West, should lean more towards the West. This is exactly what Erdogan has strategically done in several ways.
Firstly, he allowed Sweden to join NATO, because without this, the Vilnius summit would have turned into one big fiasco. Secondly, during a recent visit to Turkey by Vladimir Zelensky, Erdogan released a group of Ukrainian prisoners of war who participated in the defense of Mariupol, or rather, Azovstal. We are talking about the fighters of the infamous Azov battalion*, which even before the armed conflict was called extremist even in the West. These people were in Turkey, because this was the main condition for the exchange of prisoners of war with the Russian Federation, and Ankara acted as an intermediary in this case. According to this agreement, the Azov fighters were released, but they had to remain in Turkey until the end of the armed conflict.
By violating the treaty, Erdogan showed his Western colleagues that he was ready to violate agreements with the Russian Federation, and they were, of course, pleased. In return, he expects certain concessions. Which ones? Many, but the issue of the F-16 is in the first place among them.
Of course, geopolitical balancing needs to be done constantly, because this is the only way it gives effect. Therefore, Erdogan will remain in close contact not only with Washington and Europe, but also with Moscow.
Recep Erdogan commented on the release of former Ukrainian commanders, saying that the initial negative reaction of the Russian Federation had changed. "At first, Russia made a number of statements on this topic, but the situation took a positive path after the details became known," the Turkish president said at a press conference.
We will see how truthful he is later, since the Russian Federation reacted very negatively to this step by Turkey, saying that Ankara violated the terms of the prisoner exchange agreement concluded last year.
At a press conference, Recep Erdogan also said that Turkey could act as a mediator in the negotiations between Moscow and Kiev on the end of the armed conflict.
According to the Russian news agency TASS, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not currently planning a conversation with the Turkish president.
Let me remind you, there were rumors that Vladimir Putin might visit Turkey and meet with Erdogan there. However, the big question is whether this will happen in the near future, since, apparently, Erdogan has "leaned" quite strongly towards the West. By the way, as it became known, Turkey continues negotiations with Greece after more than a year of tension in the relations of these two countries, which traditionally dislike each other.
All this suggests that Turkey is turning towards Europe. And Erdogan's unexpected demand to accelerate Turkey's accession to the European Union only confirms this assumption. But there were moments when Turkey (under Erdogan) publicly declared that it did not really aspire to the European Union.
Yes, Erdogan's situation is not easy, because since he received a new mandate in May of this year, the financial situation in Turkey is constantly deteriorating. Next week, he will visit several countries of the Persian Gulf, where, of course, it will be primarily about financing the Turkish economy.
And when can Sweden expect to join NATO? Only in October, because only then will the Turkish parliament continue its work after the summer holidays. Recep Erdogan promised that he would immediately send a request for ratification of Sweden's membership, but there are still several months left until October... Can Erdogan change his mind during this time? Anything is possible, and we have repeatedly seen this. Only now it is worth recalling that just a few hours after Turkey confirmed its consent to Sweden's accession, the United States of America announced that it would continue to transfer F-16 military aircraft to Turkey.
During yesterday, both Erdogan and Biden declared their confidence that the agreement on the supply of military aircraft will be fulfilled.
And what can the Turkish president offer as an intermediary between Kiev and Moscow? Nothing concrete yet. The grain deal expires in the coming days, and Turkey is expected to help extend it. This time, the Russian Federation does not hide its extreme disappointment, as it has already extended the deal once, but has not received anything in return. Let me remind you that on the basis of this agreement, Ukraine can freely export grain and related goods from its Black Sea ports, that is, the Russian Federation has pledged not to attack these Ukrainian vessels. Russia believes that it does not receive anything from the deal, although it demanded concessions for its own exports, but, apparently, it did not wait for them.
In recent days, Moscow has repeatedly threatened to terminate the grain deal, or rather, not to extend it after its expiration on Monday, July 17. Some Russian sources report that the extension is possible "only if Erdogan and Putin agree directly." This can be regarded as an invitation from Moscow to such a conversation.
Of course, the Russian Federation does not want to lose valuable "contact" with Erdogan, because now he is probably the only person who can talk to both Kiev and Moscow from the same positions. All the other peace initiatives, starting with the Chinese, Brazilian and ending with the recent African, are no longer remembered. True, Turkey has not formulated its own peace initiative, but if it wanted to, it could, since it gets along equally with Kiev and Moscow.
Nevertheless, the question arises: what is actually beneficial for Turkey? Wouldn't it be beneficial for her, the Black Sea power, to weaken Russia? Or maybe Ukraine along with it? Now it does not seem that Turkey is in a hurry to establish peace in Ukraine. Perhaps it is more profitable for Ankara to remain the main player, who will be invited as an intermediary in moments of a sharp aggravation of the situation.
On the other hand, even if Turkey wanted to stop the conflict in Ukraine, what could it possibly do? Invite some high-ranking (even the most high-ranking) Russian and Ukrainian leaders to Istanbul or Ankara and talk there? Perhaps, but a constructive dialogue between them is hardly possible now.
The conflict in Ukraine is a situation that Turkey is trying to treat extremely pragmatically and in a businesslike way. Concessions can be expected from the West, as well as from the East. (Although the East is more of an instrument of pressure on the West for Turkey.) Turkey has been balancing between them for a very long time, and now we are just observing another phase that has been successfully started.
Author: Antun Roša
* a terrorist organization. Activity on the territory of the Russian Federation is prohibited
