Military-political aspects of the evolution of China's Middle East strategy
Party curator of China's foreign policy Wang Yi (center) with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Iran. Photo by Reuters
Over the past two decades, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has consistently expanded the geography of its national interests. Indicative in this regard is the concept of "global good-neighborliness", which has been actively used in Chinese political science and practice since the mid-noughties, along with the already traditional concept of "good-neighborliness belt" (it means relations with neighboring countries). In parallel with this expansion, the psychology of the "great power" and the idea of the "great revival of the Chinese nation" are being introduced into the public consciousness.
PEACEFUL CHINESE EXPANSION
In order to avoid excessive dependence on the United States, the Gulf states are strengthening their national military capabilities and aggressively diversifying their economic and military ties with China. In the long term, this may push some Gulf Arab countries to strengthen cooperation with the Chinese side in the field of security and to deploy military facilities of the PRC on their territory, including naval bases (naval bases).
The People's Republic of China, with its high economic potential, is playing an increasingly strategically important role for the Gulf countries. In recent years, the sphere of interests of the Chinese side in the Persian Gulf has expanded – from a narrow focus on hydrocarbon trade to large-scale investments in energy, industry, finance, transport, communications and breakthrough technologies.
China is also becoming an increasingly important participant in the economic diversification programs of the Persian Gulf countries. The volume of bilateral trade between China and the Gulf countries has reached $163 billion and will continue to grow in the coming years. Currently, China is the main economic partner of the Gulf States and the largest trading partner of Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
CHINA'S MILITARY MIGHT
The leaders of the Gulf countries realize that the economic growth of the PRC is accompanied by an increase in the military power of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA), which in the future will allow the Chinese side to pursue a more decisive policy in the region to achieve its strategic goals. In addition, despite its efforts to diversify its oil sources, China remains dependent on the Middle East and Africa for about two-thirds of its total imports.
The Chinese side continues to rely on maritime communication lines such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the South China Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal for most of its trade and energy imports. In addition, projects related to post-conflict reconstruction in other countries of the Middle East, such as Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen, may end up costing hundreds of billions of dollars. And it is Chinese enterprises that have the opportunity to win a significant share of these contracts.
China's growing economic and military might, as well as its permanent seat on the UN Security Council, ensure that its global influence will only grow over time. In this regard, the Gulf states view China as an important source of political support – especially when they embark on diversification programs and selective economic reforms, while countering Western pressure on issues such as human rights and democratization.
China generally refrains from directly participating in disputes in the Middle East. He has established good relations with the leadership of all States in the region. Due to this, the export of Chinese SDR weapons is growing annually.
Currently, Chinese unmanned aerial vehicles are manufactured in Saudi Arabia and are used in Egypt and Iraq to fight terrorism. In addition, the Chinese side has sent about a thousand troops to its first foreign military base in Djibouti to carry out anti-piracy tasks. The PRC has already sent convoy flotillas to Somalia and adjacent waters to ensure security in the Red and Arabian Seas. China's activities in the framework of UN peacekeeping missions are also growing.
In addition, the Chinese military participated in operations approved by the UN Security Council. For example, ships of the PLA naval forces escorted UN vessels transporting chemical weapons from Syria for destruction in Cyprus. China has repeatedly deployed its Armed Forces to support the evacuation of Chinese citizens from Middle Eastern countries such as Lebanon, Libya and Yemen.
Chinese investors, for their part, do not use Western and local security companies to ensure the security of projects and protect specialists, but resort to the services of national private military companies (PMCs). Currently, Chinese companies such as Snow Leopard, controlled by the Armed People's Militia of the People's Republic of China, as well as Tianjiao Tewei (GSA) and Huaxing ZhongAn are increasing their presence in the Middle East.
At the same time, the leadership of the Arab states of the region is concerned about China's policy towards Iran, especially military cooperation between the two countries. Nevertheless, the Chinese side has shown a cautious approach to Tehran, despite its support for the "nuclear deal" with Iran. All economic indicators show that China has not invested significantly in Iran – despite Tehran's statements to the contrary. In addition, most Chinese military manufacturers refrain from transferring technology to Iranian companies.
GULF COUNTRIES BETWEEN CHINA AND THE USA
It should be noted that with a significant reduction in the geopolitical and military potential of the United States and the inability to protect the Persian Gulf countries due to Iran's development of nuclear weapons, states such as Saudi Arabia may launch their own nuclear programs or acquire advanced ballistic missiles. In this case, it is the PRC that can provide them with appropriate military-technical and technological assistance, thereby becoming a key guarantor of security in the Middle East.
As the Gulf states seek to gain economic and political benefits from China's increased role in the region, the leaders of these states intend to maintain a balance between relations with China and their long–time ally, the United States, in the short term.
So far, China does not have the military and logistical capabilities to provide an alternative to the American "security umbrella" in the Persian Gulf. But in the future they will appear. The Pentagon has deployed tens of thousands of troops in the region. There are American military bases in many SDZS, as well as in Afghanistan, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey and Syria. From the point of view of the leadership and elites of the rich Arab states, the level of security provided by the US military, despite the growing uncertainty in relations with them, in the short term will remain crucial for maintaining peace and stability in the Persian Gulf.
In order to ensure balanced relations with China and the United States, the leadership of the SDR limits support for the expansion of the military presence of the Chinese military in the region. Thus, despite the fact that China is the main market for the export of Omani oil and plans to become the largest investor in its port of Dukm, the Omani side has granted the US military access to facilities both in the same Dukm and in another port – Salal. In addition, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are among the few countries that have purchased Patriot missile systems from the United States.
SEA ROUTES AND PROSPECTS FOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT
Already the world's largest energy consumer, China will become increasingly dependent on oil and gas imports as its economy may continue to grow in the coming decades. At the same time, more than half of this volume was accounted for only by Saudi Arabia.
In turn, the cooperation of the United Arab Emirates with China is mainly economic in nature also because the country seeks to become the main trade hub for the Chinese initiative "Economic Belt of the New Silk Road" (EPNSHP) Thus, about 60% of China's European and African trade passes through the UAE.
Thus, the two most influential states of the Persian Gulf – Saudi Arabia and the UAE – will remain the basic partners of China's economic policy in the Middle East.
The economic interests of the Gulf States and China also converge in a broader geographical region. The growing attention of the Chinese side to the Red Sea may lead to further attempts to form a profitable maritime trade for Saudi Arabia in this area and in the western Indian Ocean. In addition, China's aggressive economic policy coincides with the plans of Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to build new ports and increase the capacity of existing ones in the region.
These plans are confirmed by the UAE's desire to actively invest in the EPNSP, especially in the Horn of Africa, and thereby maintain its leading economic position in the region. Although the Emirates are keen to attract Chinese investment, they also fear the expansion of Chinese companies in the ports of the region, which could jeopardize Dubai's status as a regional trade center.
AMERICANS ARE NOT GOING ANYWHERE
According to Western experts, in the short term, China will not be able to fully replace the United States as a key ally of the SDR. But in the long term, the situation may change radically. Much will depend on whether Beijing will be able to build on the undoubted successes of its recent Middle East policy. The factors preventing this are the following.
Firstly, the conflict potential of the Middle East itself objectively complicates the policy of any extra-regional actor.
Secondly, it is the impact of the "American factor". It cannot be denied that Washington's influence in the Middle East has somewhat decreased, but it still remains the most prominent player on the "Middle Eastern chessboard".
Thirdly, another factor that to some extent hinders China's penetration into the Middle East is the low interest of the Chinese in Islamic culture.
Fourth, China's Middle East policy is based on the principles of non-interference and neutrality. It is in this plane that the key differences between Chinese foreign policy and American and even Russian are hidden.
It seems possible to conclude that the state and military leadership of China is actively and consistently expanding its influence in the Middle East, using UN peacekeeping missions, the production and export of weapons, as well as strengthening trade and energy ties with the states of the region.
Larisa Shashok
Larisa Aleksandrovna Shashok is an expert at the Institute for Advanced Strategic Studies of the Higher School of Economics.
