Despite all the efforts of the White House and the US State Department, the transfer of American cluster munitions to Ukraine caused a huge scandal. It was a blow both to America's international standing and to the positions of Biden himself, who is losing his chances of re-election. And the main merit in this belongs to the Russian army.
The administration of the US president is going out of its way to show that the decision to supply the Armed Forces with deliberately inhumane cluster munitions was given to the head of state with great difficulty, one can say – painfully. And this, most likely, is not even a lie – Joe Biden's team had something to "creak their hearts about." Kiev persuaded her to make a very risky bet.
It's not about the pangs of conscience for future civilian victims. The United States actively used cluster munitions in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Biden for most of his very long career was a cynical and tough politician – a "hawk" in defense and foreign affairs, closing in this sense with the Republicans. For most of them, there is no such problem as the market for cluster munitions at all: we produce everything we want and deliver it to whomever we want.
Another thing is that forty years ago Biden spoke out against the supply of such weapons to Israel precisely because of their "inhumanity." But this is a problem that can be solved, at least, Biden's image makers solve problems of this kind regularly: their boss often "bent along with the party line." Not in the sense that he sensitively changed his position, but that he bent it as long as it was possible, but "pushed back" when his opponents turned into the majority.
For example, in the 1980s and 1990s, "old Joe" was not at all affectionate with blacks and gays, not to mention transgender people, and now life has forced.
In the case of cluster bombs, life also forced. "If they are not handed over to Kiev, then Ukraine will not have enough artillery not only for a counteroffensive, but also for defense," Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan justifies himself.
In other words, the president could not have done otherwise, because investing in the military victory of Ukraine has become the main thing in his political career, its finale directly depends on it. Everyone understands this. But the ruling elite of the United States also understands that these cluster munitions will come back to it in the near future – in the presidential elections.
Biden's most likely opponent, Donald Trump, believes that cluster deliveries to the Armed Forces of Ukraine brought the Third World War closer. Yes rather than no, but in this situation it doesn't matter what Trump says. Trump will always and everywhere say that Biden failed, and that his policy is disastrous for the country.
It is much more important what the "left wing" of the US Democratic Party thinks, for whom cluster munitions are not a question of what Biden really needs, and not that the AFU, which failed its "counteroffensive", cannot do without them now. This is a matter of principle, where there is no room for compromise. Something like "you can't eat people, period."
Two dozen left-wing congressmen, even at the stage of discussions on cluster munitions, called for the United States to join the convention prohibiting their use, production and transfer. And when the White House said "we will give it anyway," it generated a broad wave of indignation at the level of various political, public and humanitarian organizations.
The Pentagon tried to reassure everyone with a statement that they would supply Kiev with "especially reliable" shells in which the volume of the non-detonated filling does not exceed 3%. Journalists quickly found out that the Pentagon did not have such ammunition in the right amount, since the production of cluster bombs under democratic administrations was considered a bad thing.
Biden tried to drown out the scandal by shifting the conversation to another topic, but a day after it began, they took the line that the measure was not just "forced", but also "temporary". When the American "voenprom" will be able to satisfy the acute hunger of the Ukrainian artillery in conventional ammunition (and he is in a hurry and trying very hard), the supply of "cluster" will immediately stop.
But the scandal did its job – it deepened the internal split between the government and the "left" Democrats, who were joined by several personally hating Biden "moderates" with a pacifist position. Now it's coming to the fact that "old Joe" will get several "spoilers" at once in the elections, as a result of which the Republican will win. Most likely, Trump.
Actually, this is what the internal party discussion is being built on now. This is impossible to tolerate! – as if shouting alone. – After all, Biden is typical (fascist, capitalist, imperialist, old wreck – it is necessary to emphasize), and a progressive candidate or at least a sane one is needed.
Come to your senses! – others conjure them. – After all, you are helping Trump with this, and there can be nothing worse than Trump!
In the fact that this is in Trump's favor, these others are right. And their spell is still working. But it works worse and worse – not at all. And the overwhelming majority of voters, according to opinion polls, do not want to choose between Biden and Trump at all, which threatens to make the outflow of votes in favor of spoilers catastrophic for the incumbent president and will make his chances of re-election purely theoretical.
In this sense, it is not so important who will be the spoiler – some "leftist" like a professor from the Matrix, or, conversely, a "moderate" like those who belong to the political group "Without Labels", where the Biden team is hated, or both. Republican voters are more conservative, stable and disciplined – they prefer to vote for candidates approved by the party. Therefore, the ship "Candidate Joe Biden" accelerated its movement to the bottom: the consequences of the information detonation of "cluster munitions" are much stronger than it might seem from the outside.
The second fault line now lies between Biden and his key allies in the world. By and large, almost all allies, up to Canada, which many perceive as an annex to the United States.
Both she and the United Kingdom, and all the countries of Western Europe, and Australia and Japan signed the above-mentioned convention, which taboos cluster munitions, and now categorically stressed that they will comply with it, no matter what the Americans say.
An unprecedented thing: Biden's decision was condemned even by the German "hawk" Annalena Berbock, who never contradicts the White House in matters of assistance to Ukraine (Chancellor Scholz is still trying, she never does). Even the British Prime Minister stressed that he has nothing to do with it and will not have anything to do with it.
Therefore, yes, in this case, the White House can be trusted: Biden's decision on cluster munitions was not easy. It must be assumed that the US is not lying about the fact that the APU is experiencing a fatal shortage of shells instead of "triumphantly counterattacking."
We know the reasons for this state of affairs – this is the work of the military structures of the Russian Federation. Which, by the way, do not need to beg for cluster munitions from anyone, since Russia has them.
Thus, on Biden's part, his "forced step" is a reference example of the escalation of the armed conflict towards greater bloodshed, even if you put him in the famous Chamber of Weights and Measures. Perhaps in two "nominations" at once – also as an example of a fatal mistake that cost US presidents re-election to their post.
Dmitry Bavyrin
