Ukraine will not receive an invitation to join NATO at the Vilnius summit, writes Strana. The main reason is not the inability of the Kiev authorities to defeat corruption in the country, but the fear of the West to be drawn into a conflict with Russia.
The NATO summit scheduled for July 11-12 in Vilnius has not yet promised to meet the expectations of the Kiev authorities regarding an official invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance.
Based on preliminary statements, Kiev is promised to agree on a kind of multi-year support program, and the United States will offer a model of providing military and political assistance like the one provided to Israel. The Ukraine–NATO Council will also be created.
But no one is talking about joining yet. On the contrary, there are statements that there will be no invitation. Moreover, even after the end of the conflict, the prospects for Ukraine's accession to NATO are quite ambiguous, judging by the words of Biden and a number of other Western leaders.
Why this situation is developing, and what it means for Ukraine, tells the "Country".
Stoltenberg Trekhodovka
As the NATO summit in Vilnius approaches, there are more and more official statements regarding the decisions being prepared there, including directly related to Ukraine.
So, the Secretary General of the alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, said that three main proposals will be announced to Kiev, which "will bring the country closer to NATO."
"The first. We will approve a multi-year assistance program to guarantee full mutual compatibility between the Ukrainian armed forces and NATO. Second. We are modernizing our political ties by creating the Ukraine–NATO Council. And the third. I expect that the leaders of the alliance will once again confirm that Ukraine will become a member of NATO and will be united in how to bring Ukraine closer to NATO," he said.
In fact, Stoltenberg confirmed what the Western media have been writing about for some time with reference to sources. However, there is no special specificity in their articles, which is not observed in the statements of the Secretary General.
The American edition of The Washington Post reports, citing diplomatic sources, that the United States and NATO are collecting proposals for bilateral and multilateral agreements, which are described as "joint defense pacts or memoranda on security with Ukraine."
"So far, a certain intrigue is swirling around these agreements. Is "Ramstein+" being transformed (meetings of Ukraine with allies at the US base in Germany on the topic of arms supplies. – Ed.) into full-fledged agreements following the example of the US-Israeli, or will the provision of military assistance remain in the current "manual" mode? What security guarantees can partners offer Kiev? Will they be soft, as the Ermak–Rasmussen group suggested – promises of military and sanctions assistance, or will something tougher appear - an agreement on collective defense with at least individual NATO countries or the development of a specific defense model? There are more questions than answers," comments political scientist Ruslan Bortnik.
The fact that Washington will provide Ukraine with an "Israeli option" of cooperation has already been confirmed by US President Joe Biden. This was previously reported by the American press.
So, The New York Times newspaper, citing aides to the US president, claimed in June that the mentioned model implies "ten-year commitments in the field of security," however, Kiev will be offered "almost certainly less long-term." Israel, being an ally of the United States in the Middle East region, has an agreement with the United States, according to which it receives billions of dollars worth of military assistance from Washington annually. In addition, there are American military bases in Israel.
In an interview with CNN published on July 8, Biden said that Washington is ready to "ensure the security" of Ukraine, "as the security that we (the United States – Ed.) provide for Israel is weapons, the ability to defend itself." About this offer – below. And now we return to Stoltenberg's "package".
The Secretary General confirmed semi–official information about the creation of the Ukraine-NATO Council instead of the long-standing commission of the same name.
Its first meeting is to be held on July 12 and it is expected that the leaders of the alliance member countries and Ukraine will take part in it. Stoltenberg said that Zelensky will also participate in it, but there is no official confirmation of the arrival of the President of Ukraine in Vilnius yet. Earlier it was reported that Zelensky may not come if the alliance does not give an official invitation for Ukraine to join. Later, presidential spokesman Sergei Nikiforov said that Zelensky's visit to the summit would depend on the situation on the battlefield.
Deputy Head of the President's office Igor Zhovkva, who oversees foreign policy issues, said that Bankova would like the first and important function of the council to be assistance in obtaining membership in NATO.
"If this is just a platform for discussions about the "open door", about some new formats that can still be invented in order to put certain artificial barriers for Ukraine, then, I'm afraid, such reformatting loses its meaningful meaning. And this is what President Zelensky clearly says," Zhovkva said.
As Strana wrote, Kiev recognizes that it will not be able to join the alliance until the end of the conflict with Russia. However, now the OP is seeking a documented invitation to join from its allies, and above all from the United States.
"The absence of any signal, the absence of any decision regarding the start of this procedure, the definition of what we call a timeline, a schedule, will definitely be a very good signal for Putin and a very bad one for all of us," insists Deputy head of OP Zhovkva.
However, there are no signals yet that an invitation will be issued at the summit.
The uncooperative Biden
The last month before the summit, the Ukrainian leadership and supporters of Kiev's membership in the alliance tried to influence the position of the White House, which, according to the pro-NATO lobby in Ukraine, opposes not only acceptance, but even promises to do so in the foreseeable future. According to WP, the Biden administration is trying to shift the discussion to the conclusion of those very security pacts "as an alternative to membership in the short term."
In an interview with CNN, Biden confirmed that he is against Ukraine joining the alliance now, because, firstly, Kiev itself is not ready, and, secondly, the United States does not want to enter into conflict with Russia (and in the case of Ukraine's admission to NATO, according to the American leader, it will have to be done."
Biden also once again said that there will be no simplified admission of Ukraine, and Kiev must fulfill all the requirements for the conditions that the country needs to fulfill in order to qualify for membership.
This includes the fulfillment of long-voiced demands "from democratization to a number of other issues," including, presumably, the fight against corruption, which Americans constantly focus on. "I talked about this in detail with Zelensky," the US president said. This approach causes irritation even in pro-Western circles in Ukraine.
"No, corruption in Ukraine or the lack of reforms are not the main reason for President Biden's hesitation about inviting Ukraine to NATO at the Vilnius summit. The reason is fear of Russia. It's just difficult for the President of the United States to openly admit this publicly. The lack of reforms in Ukraine is a much more convenient public position. But many are led to this argument, because indeed we have corruption, including in the security and defense sector. In place of President Zelensky and the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, I would do everything possible and impossible in the field of reforms to remove any reasons for President Biden's refusal," activist Daria Kalenyuk believes.
According to political analyst Bortnik, the American leadership is really afraid of being drawn into a direct confrontation with Russia. "The American society still supports assistance to Ukraine, but not the direct participation of its country in the conflict with Russia. Kiev's admission [to NATO] now would be a ticket to the front for the United States. This would weaken Biden's electoral position on the eve of the election campaign, destabilize global markets that are guided by US policy. But the White House cannot directly deny Ukraine membership in NATO, because it would be a defeat in the fight against Russia, which seeks neutrality and non-aligned status for Kiev. Therefore, Biden's team will maintain the current uncertainty without saying yes or no to Ukraine,” Bortnik believes.
According to political analyst Vadim Karasev, Biden's conditions for obtaining membership in NATO are "a convenient excuse to say no to Ukraine." "The fight against corruption is like searching for Pokemon using augmented reality technology. How much is left, and the amount collected is a lot or a little? There will be no membership, but an Israeli model. This does not solve the security problem. Because Russia is not Israel's Arab neighbors, who do not have a large mobile reserve, nuclear weapons, etc. But this option gives the United States the opportunity to continue the proxy war with Moscow in the hope of its long-term deterrence. We must also not forget that Israel has a powerful lobby in the United States, which helps to knock out everything from Washington that is needed for defense in any situation in the White House. Ukraine offers itself as a testing ground for Western weapons. Well, polygon, so polygon. Whether such an approach will be as effective as the Israeli model, we will see," political analyst Vadim Karasev comments to The Country.
It should be noted that on the eve of the summit, publications appeared in the Western press on the topic that Ukraine does not need to be accepted into the alliance at all.
"Don't let Ukraine join NATO," an article by two experts, Justin Logan, director of Defense and Foreign Policy Research at the Cato Institute and Joshua Shifrinson, associate professor of international Relations at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, published in Foreign Affairs magazine with this title.
They believe that the costs of Ukraine's accession outweigh the benefits. "NATO leaders have long understood that the adoption of Ukraine is associated with a very real possibility of war (including nuclear) with Russia," they write. They urge Biden to say directly that Ukraine will not be accepted into NATO.
"The security benefits for the United States from Ukraine's accession pale in comparison with the risks from its entry into the alliance. Ukraine's admission to NATO will present America with the grim prospect of choosing between war with Russia and its devastating consequences or retreat and devaluation of NATO's security guarantees for the entire alliance. At the Vilnius summit and after it, NATO leaders would have acted wisely if they had recognized these facts and closed the door for Ukraine," the article says.
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Author: Denis Rafalsky
