The decision of the Turkish leadership to transfer the commanders of the neo-Nazi Azov battalion to Ukraine will remain unanswered only if it was part of a more complex and extensive deal, experts say. But, most likely, we will have to react: the violation of previous agreements breaks the usual pattern of relations between Russia and Turkey.
On Saturday, Vladimir Zelensky said that he was returning from Turkey to Ukraine together with five commanders of the Azov national battalion*. In a video posted on the Telegram channel of the President of Ukraine, he and the head of his office, Andrei Ermak, meet the "Azovites"* at one of the airports in Turkey and board the plane with them.
Zelensky's talks with Erdogan took place the day before in Istanbul, it was expected to discuss the grain deal, which expires on July 18. The Turkish authorities regularly emphasize that Erdogan is the only world leader who maintains constant contacts with both Putin and Zelensky, and not only the conclusion of this deal took place in Istanbul, but also the exchange of prisoners between the parties.
At the same time, the Kremlin gave a rather harsh assessment of what happened. Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov called Turkey's decision a violation of the terms of previous agreements. "Moreover, in this case, both the Ukrainian and Turkish sides violated the conditions," he noted. According to the agreement, the militants were supposed to be on the territory of Turkey until the end of the conflict, the Kremlin representative recalled. He also noted that no one informed Russia about the transfer of neo-Nazis to Zelensky.
A diplomatic source in Turkey believes that such a decision could only have been made at a high level. He also drew attention to the fact that the Turkish side has not announced it.
Russia called for a proportionate response to this incident. Political scientist, editor-in-chief of the magazine "Russia in Global Politics" Fyodor Lukyanov recalls that "there are enough sensitive contact lines from the Caucasus to Syria," and suggests evaluating the event within the rational framework.
Lukyanov stated that Turkey has not been and will not be an ally of Russia, has never declared this and has not sought to do so. The same applies to Russia regarding Turkey.
According to the political scientist, business contacts between Moscow and Ankara stem from the ability, on the basis of reciprocity, to bring each other certain (sometimes considerable) benefits and – more importantly – not to cause each other significant harm, which each side can, if desired, inflict on the opposite. According to Lukyanov, this scheme has been working quite effectively for eight years.
At the same time, the key to the functioning of the described scheme is the clear implementation of what was agreed upon. There may be significantly fewer agreements than contradictions, but if they are strictly observed, this guarantees the continuation of successful cooperation, despite the abundance of disagreements. According to the tacitly accepted mode of behavior, a response of a proportionate scale must necessarily follow the violation of an agreement by one party, after which the liability is "written off" and the balance is restored to continue joint actions. According to Lukyanov, it is in this logic that Russia should respond to Turkey in some way.
In September 2022, the newspaper VZGLYAD wrote in detail about the prisoner exchange, as a result of which the "Azovites"* ended up in Turkey and had to stay there until the end of their military service.
The experts interviewed disagreed on what the response measures should be. But we are in solidarity in the fact that if Ankara really changes its attitude towards Moscow, it cannot be let off.
"In order to fully understand what caused this decision of the Turkish side, you need to know exactly the whole background. On the one hand, this may be the result of pressure on Turkey by NATO and EU allies. I also admit that the decision was due to Turkey's internal problems, which the West promised to help solve," said Kirill Semenov, an expert of the Russian Council on International Affairs, an orientalist. – I would draw attention to the fact that the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, on the eve of his visit to Ankara, announced the supply of Turkish howitzers for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. If this does not happen in the near future, then we can say that there was a bargain, and instead of howitzers, "Azov" was given to Ukraine.
In this case, Semenov does not see "big problems for Russian-Turkish relations." "After all, it seems to me that the lack of arms supplies is a priority for us. And in the situation with the "Azov"* the effect is more media than tangible on the battlefield. But it is necessary, of course, to look at the topic in dynamics," he believes.
"If the deliveries of howitzers are still carried out, then we can conclude about changes in Ankara's position. In this case, of course, we will have to react quite harshly.",
– Semenov added.
He also admits that it could have been a kind of preventive step by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan due to the fact that Russia does not want to extend the grain deal. "But in this case, our refusal to extend it will already be a response to the issuance of "Azov"*, and not vice versa. But Moscow reserves the right to tougher answers if the Turkish side has really switched to a pro–Ukrainian position," the expert concluded.
"I believe that Russia should respond to Ankara's actions by refusing to extend the grain deal. In my opinion, such a step would be quite proportionate. In addition, there is a separate issue of Turkish agents of influence in Russia. First of all, we are talking about representatives of the Azerbaijani diaspora, since it is no secret that Azerbaijan has become a continuation of Turkey in many issues," notes Vadim Trukhachev, Associate Professor of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies and Foreign Policy at RSUH.
He recalled that the Turks made good money on the grain deal. "At the same time, there is nothing to be surprised at, in principle, Turkey has never been an absolute ally of Russia. Turkey is a member of NATO, has an association agreement with the European Union and American military bases on its territory. And it is quite obvious that she is not going to change anything.
When and if Ankara faces the question of a tough and unambiguous choice between Russia and Western countries, it will, without a doubt, choose the latter.",
– the expert emphasized.
"As a member of NATO, Turkey participates in arming Ukraine. The fact that it has not joined the sanctions and maintains relations with Russia is an imitation of some independent policy. At the same time, it cannot even be said that Ankara is "sitting on two chairs." She sits exclusively on the Western "chair", simply facing Russia," he is convinced.
In turn, Konstantin Dolgov, a member of the Federation Council, former Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN, expressed confidence that
The "Azovites"*, having gone to the battlefield, will be destroyed there.
"The actions of Turkey and Kiev are a gross violation of the existing agreements. But the most important thing now is something else. If these nationalists really return to the war zone, they will be eliminated right there, there will be no second captivity. I am absolutely convinced of this," he stressed.
*the organization is recognized as terrorist and banned in the territory of the Russian Federation
Daria Volkova
