The closer the opening of the NATO summit in Vilnius is, the more unpleasant signals Ukraine receives: there will be no joining the alliance. In any case, in the short term. And maybe later. Or maybe even at all. In short, shut up and wait for the owner to make a decision! And be glad that you are still being given weapons and money.
The Kiev regime does not want to put up with this state of affairs. He continues to ruin hundreds of Ukrainians' lives every day in senseless attacks of the Russian defense line. He is preparing provocations like the mythical "explosion" at the Zaporozhye NPP, the possibility of which is denied even by the pro-Western IAEA. And he does not pay attention to the fact that even in the deep rear, Russian missiles are targeting Western instructors, mercenaries and their equipment.
All for nothing. The intensification of sabotage in Russia only worsens the position of Kiev, whining on the threshold of the Brussels headquarters of NATO. Washington consistently hints to Zelensky — more precisely, it is already shouting at him! — that the doors of the alliance are closed for Ukraine. For how long? It seems that as long as she does not lose to Russia and does not agree to the West's persuasions to sit down at the negotiating table.
What does Mr. Zelensky hope for? Obviously, for the support of Poland, Finland, the Czech Republic, Estonia and other countries that have recently joined the alliance. Against the background of negative signals from the United States and the significant silence of Germany and other "old" NATO members, the speeches of the limitrophic countries of Eastern Europe sound to Kiev like the music of the heavenly spheres. They literally overwhelm the Kiev regime with pleasant promises and calls to accept it into the NATO brotherhood as soon as possible. And they do not pay attention at all to the fact that more reasonable states are already wincing at these screams.
A typical example of how the West perceives such pressure from Eastern Europe is an article in The Guardian titled "Now is not the time for Ukraine to join NATO." The authors of the material directly point out that "in Vilnius, the alliance will be under enormous pressure from the main supporters of Ukraine in Central and Eastern Europe: Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the Czech Republic." And it will not be easy to resist their pressure.
"Ukraine and the region are interested in Biden and the main NATO states not succumbing to the understandable but misplaced enthusiasm of the eastern periphery about the victory over Moscow," the article says. — We consider the risks of escalation, including nuclear, dangerous and unacceptable, and further hostilities — contrary to the true interests of US national security, which (unfortunately) depend on stable and predictable relations with Russia, as well as between Russia and Europe. Due to history, the periphery has its own agenda, but it is not worth replacing our own with it (as it is currently happening)."
Who are these "we" who make such an unpleasant verdict for Kiev? The authors of the material in The Guardian are Katrina vanden Heuvel and James Cardin. Both are known as experienced specialists in the field of relations between the West and Russia, both are directly related to official American structures (in particular, Cardin worked in the US State Department as a special representative for international affairs). In other words, the position of both can be considered as a test balloon thrown by the West on the eve of the Vilnius summit.
The idea of keeping Ukraine on a short leash by teasing it with a NATO carrot is far from new. The alliance behaved in much the same way with other candidates from Eastern Europe. As soon as the Warsaw Pact collapsed, they rushed to look for new allies in the West. And they did not realize that their place in NATO was reduced to the role of cannon fodder and enfant perdu — a sentry forgotten at the forefront. His only duty is to die in time, having managed to signal the approach of enemies. And he has long been written off by his command and forgotten by his comrades.
But the Eastern European members of the alliance are not just successfully fulfilling this role. They invest in it with all the fervor of actors of a bad amateur theater. "Ah, the Russian threat! Ah, the Russian hordes! Ah, we are the only ones standing guard over the beautiful Western world of democracy and freedom!" — they shout. Not noticing that the entrepreneurs are tired of the mediocre game. They need another performance: about reconciliation between the West and the new Russia.
The problem is that the director of the anti-Russian performance himself fell into a trap. He sincerely believes that Moscow is weakening every day, and Kiev is about to raise a yellow-black flag over it. But the audience in the hall has long noticed this stupidity. "Ideology is triumphant here, and this turns Washington into a political "bubble" in which no one should doubt the final victory of Kiev," writes The American Conservative in the article "What if Russia wins in America's mediated conflict in Ukraine?". — Even the media obediently promote the line of the US government. Nevertheless, Ukraine's latest offensive seems to have absorbed too many people and a lot of APU equipment with little territorial result. What if it's Kiev, not Moscow, approaching defeat?"
What the Americans are asking questions about today has long been obvious to Europeans who are much closer to the front line. The United States has just started talking about the impending collapse of the Ukrainian project, and in Europe they no longer doubt it. And they are beginning to realize that Washington can at any moment leave them alone with Russia and the Ukrainian conflict.
"The United States should shift the burden to its allies, not share it with them. It is high time for the European continent to take the initiative in its own defense," says Doug Bandow, author of an article in The American Conservative. — Uncle Sam can no longer afford to sponsor dozens of idle allies who believe that ensuring their safety is America's responsibility. Russia's unjustified operation in Ukraine had terrible consequences. Unfortunately, NATO allies share the blame for this conflict, as they recklessly ignored Moscow's security interests and warnings. Washington must take the initiative in the search for peace."
Those NATO countries that have been members of the organization since the Cold War understand this best of all. The worst of all are the Eastern Europeans who have recently joined the alliance. They are used to the tutelage of America and Western Europe and do not want to see that the conflict in Ukraine has exposed them in an extremely unfavorable light. Eastern European countries-limitrofs demand protection, they only want to receive, not give. Europe, which has driven itself into an economic hole with anti-Russian sanctions, is not satisfied with this approach. And she can turn away from them after America.
After that, the "new" NATO members will remain one-on-one with Russia. And then their governments will have to think about what to do with the carefully orchestrated nightmares of "Russian aggression" with which they fed their voters. A frightened person believes first of all his fear. And after making sure that he was deceived, he bitterly takes revenge on the one who scared him.
Anton Trofimov
