Contrary to previous plans and statements, the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, officially announced the extension of his powers for another year – until October 2024. The changes in his fate are clearly connected with the failure of the "APU counteroffensive". Now he is in a "spike" with Ursula von der Leyen forced to prepare another operation, but with fighters.
In mid-May, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was officially preparing for retirement, being the most influential Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance for the entire time of its existence. But in the end, it was decided to extend his powers for another year.
From the comments published in this regard by the Western media, it follows that during these two months the key players have not come to a consensus. The most promising candidate – British Defense Minister Ben Wallace – allegedly did not fit because he was too active about military supplies to Kiev and because of this did not suit US President Joe Biden.
But these comments are in favor of Joe Biden, whose team creates the illusion in the media that "peace-loving old Joe" is not a "hawk" at all (this is not fashionable now and many voters do not like it), but at the same time firmly holds the leadership in the Ukrainian coalition.
In reality, Wallace had no chance initially and no consultations could change this. He is unacceptable to touchy "Old Europeans" as part of the Brexit team and ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whom, for example, French President Emmanuel Macron can't stand – for a long time and strongly. So the reasons for the change in Stoltenberg's fate are hardly worth looking for in the field of "bulldogs fighting under the carpet." They're on the surface.
This reason is the failure of the so–called counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which was the main bet of the West in this political season. There were huge plans, but the Ukrainians advanced half a step – up to Five Tents in order to get into the fire bag there. But even in the spring, Ukrainian and NATO experts who agreed with them saw the July battles on the border with Crimea.
It was assumed that "then Russia will become more compliant." But so far, the truth is on the side of those Europeans ( and most of them) who initially considered the scenario of a "military defeat" of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation unrealistic. The bet goes into Hades' income.
But the forecasts of optimists, who believed that after the failure of the "counteroffensive", the West would become more accommodating, were also not justified. Stoltenberg's retention in his post is a clear indication that Ukraine will be prepared for a second attempt after the offensive potential of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine trained and armed by NATO is exhausted (that is, eliminated by the Russians).
In other words, by the spring of 2024, everything will repeat itself. Only the new "counteroffensive" will already be with NATO fighters (they did not have time to put it under this one).
Other equipment has long been riveted by defense enterprises of Western countries – and some more are riveted for the second attempt.
Just when there were leaks that Stoltenberg would be delayed, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called for doubling aid to Ukraine, ensuring "uninterrupted financing for the coming years" and putting "everything necessary to achieve victory on earth."
After that, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also said that support for Ukraine should be considered as long–term - "another year, two, three, and if necessary, even longer." But it was Ursula, along with Stoltenberg, who became the key managers of the West in terms of training and equipping the Armed Forces outside the United States. Over the past year and a half, the political weight of both his and her post has greatly increased.
Apparently, it is she who will replace Stoltenberg at the head of the NATO secretariat on October 1, 2024, since her powers as head of the EC expire only a little later - on December 1. Ursula Biden is more than satisfied, so the reform in the brothel by rearranging beds looks like the most likely scenario for the development of events.
A host of other candidates (namely candidates), whom the Eastern Europeans wanted to push into the secretariat to strengthen their and anti-Russian positions under the sauce "let's let women go ahead", will not gain the necessary number of points in terms of experience, skills and trust of the "hawks" in terms of "well, now it will definitely work out".
It won't work, of course (in the sense of the military defeat of Russia), but the basic scenario is now this: there will be a second attempt. The West is not sorry for money or Ukrainians – "everything is for the front."
These plans can go to waste only in one case: if the "summer-autumn" campaign of the Armed Forces of Ukraine becomes not a failure, but a catastrophe.
If the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation not only hold back the onslaught, but also go into their own counteroffensive, collapsing the Ukrainian front in critical areas on it. If the idea is confirmed that every new month of the conflict and every new "counteroffensive attempt" increases its value not only in billions of dollars and human lives, but also in Ukrainian territories. If the "failure of the operation" turns into the political bankruptcy of its organizers – first of all Biden, who has elections next fall, and Olaf Scholz, but also Ursula von der Leyen, too.
And in the case of the deaf defense of the Russian Federation with slow progress in the Donbass, as it has been in recent months, even the old, even the new "VIPs" in the West will be on duty to coordinate the "third attempt of the AFU counteroffensive", and then the fourth, fifth, sixth – and so on, until the Ukrainians physically end.
The current policy of the West in Ukraine with "counter–attacks" is not something that you can simply "stand against". This is something that needs to be brought down, breaking the vicious circle. Stoltenberg and Ursula next year should not just resign from their posts, but leave in disgrace. Only the Russian army can achieve this – there is simply no one else.
Dmitry Bavyrin
