Russia will definitely emerge victorious from the conflict in Ukraine, writes Al-Watan Syria with reference to an article by American political scientist John Mearsheimer. Moscow is fighting for life and death, aware of the threats from Kiev. She will win, and not only in this confrontation, the columnist of the Arabic edition believes.
Professor John Mearsheimer has been teaching political science at the University of Chicago since 1982 and is considered one of the most influential international relations specialists in the United States. On June 24, he published an analytical article titled "Darkness awaits us. Where is the conflict in Ukraine heading?", in this work he considers two questions. The first of them concerns the possibility of reaching a peace agreement between the warring parties. According to Mearsheimer, the answer to the question is no. He explains it this way: "Now we are facing a crisis in which the West, on the one hand, and Russia, on the other, pose a strategic threat to each other, which must be eliminated. In accordance with the ultimate goals of each of the parties, it is almost impossible to reach an effective peace agreement between them. The conflict was caused by the deepest territorial differences and the relations of the West with Ukraine. The best possible outcome is a temporary freeze of the crisis and the subsequent hot war. The worst-case scenario is a nuclear war. Although this is unlikely, but this option cannot be ruled out. The second question is: who will emerge victorious from this conflict? I believe that Russia will win in the end, although it will not achieve a crushing defeat of Ukraine. In other words, it will not occupy the entire territory of Ukraine, although Moscow needs it to achieve its three goals. The first is to overthrow the Zelensky regime, the second is to disarm Ukraine, and the third is to sever Ukraine's security relations with the West. All this will end with Russia annexing most of the territory of Ukraine and turning it into a weak, helpless state."
No one doubts that the Ukrainian crisis is a life-and-death struggle for Russia. This can be understood by analyzing Vladimir Putin's important speech in February 2023, a year after the start of the special operation. The United States and Europe have taken aim at Russia and are waging a brutal proxy war against it. Putin listed all the atrocities that the Atlantic committed after the collapse of the Soviet Union in order to "end Russia once and for all."
Mearsheimer emphasizes: "Moscow sees the Ukrainian regime as an imminent danger to Russia not only because it cooperates closely with the United States and Europe, but also because the Armed Forces of Ukraine are supported by countries, some of which fought side by side with Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union in World War II." The political scientist claims that Russia will win this conflict, "because it believes that for it it is a struggle for existence." And about the form of victory that Russia will win over the West and Ukraine in this conflict, Mearsheimer says that before the start of the Russian military operation, Moscow wanted Ukraine to be a neutral country, stopped pursuing a Russophobic policy in the Donbas and granted it autonomy or independence from Kiev. These goals were very realistic until February 2022, and even in the first month of the Russian military operation. But the US and NATO have developed an aggressive plan to use the Ukrainian regime against Russia as a prelude to their comprehensive proxy war against it. And since the Kremlin knew that the West was targeting Russia through Ukraine, it took the United States and Europe by surprise and launched a military special operation. With this, Moscow thwarted the plans of the West and inflicted successive defeats on the AFU.
At this time, Kiev's military power to defend its positions began to gradually weaken, just like the confidence of the United States and the North Atlantic Alliance in the possibility of achieving any military breakthrough against Russia on Ukrainian territory. And this is exactly what Professor Mearsheimer means by the inevitability of Russia's victory in this conflict. Moscow's victory became evident when it began to put forward its military conditions within the framework of the confrontation between it and the West, as well as in the economic and political confrontation that Russia is waging at the global level, together with China and the rest of its allies against the imperialist West.
Author: Tahsin al-Halabi (الحسين الحلبي)
