India is wary of the idea of expanding BRICS, writes SCMP. The country is concerned about how this step meets its interests. At the same time, experts suggest that New Delhi is afraid of losing influence within the group in the event of its expansion.
- Neither India nor Brazil want to lose influence within the bloc, and New Delhi fears that its expansion will only strengthen Beijing's strategic influence.
- According to analysts, all current BRICS members share the desire to reform the international system, but the new world order mainly meets the interests of Russia and China.
According to analysts, not all members of the BRICS – a bloc of large emerging economies – support the idea of its expansion, and India is particularly "wary" of this plan. Meanwhile, there are still doubts that this association will be able to serve as a counterweight to existing regional alliances.
When the BRICS members – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – gather for a summit to be held in Johannesburg in August, the main candidates for joining the association will be Argentina, Egypt, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Bangladesh and Iran.
On Tuesday, a three-day meeting began with the participation of high-ranking officials of the bloc countries. It is expected that an expansion proposal will be included in the agenda.
Not so long ago, BRICS was considered a free association of several developing economies aimed at promoting peace, security, development and cooperation. Today, it accounts for 43% of the world's population, 26% of the land area and about 30% of the global economy.
Last year, China announced its desire to make the bloc start working on the admission of new members. But Indian Foreign Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar said in June that there was still much work to be done in this process, citing the need to agree on the standards, criteria and procedures of the expanded group.
Oliver Stuenkel, an associate professor of international relations at Brazil's Fundacao Getulio Vargas University, said India is somewhat concerned about "how much this expansion is in the interests of New Delhi."
"I think we will have to wait and see if there will be any significant movements in this direction," said Shtunkel. China is by far the strongest supporter of BRICS expansion, he added. Meanwhile, both India and Brazil "are a little afraid that they may lose influence within the expanded group."
"The new members will join in order to be closer primarily to China, and not to Brazil and India," explained Shtunkel. According to him, the bloc has already become a counterweight to the West and an alternative model of the powerful "Big Seven", which includes the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States.
"Regardless of whether there will be an expansion, the five BRICS countries already have significant influence in their regions," Shtunkel said.
According to Anu Anwar, a researcher at the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, India's recent tilt towards the West indicates that it is a kind of "black sheep" within BRICS, which means that the desire of other members to expand the bloc is well-founded.
Recently, New Delhi has strengthened economic, defense and technological cooperation with the United States, Japan, Australia and the European Union and has assumed an active role in the Quad group, including producing vaccines for the Indo-Pacific region during the pandemic.
Over the past few years, the Quadrilateral security dialogue, which also includes Australia, Japan and the United States, has been revived in response to China's growing influence in the world.
According to Anwar, BRICS is unlikely to be able to become an alternative to the "Big Seven", since almost all G7 countries are members of NATO or are connected with the United States by other forms of military alliances.
"There is not a single military alliance between the BRICS members, and they are unlikely to appear in the near future," Anwar explained. In his opinion, such a military alliance is the key to building a new world order.
"Although the expansion of the list of BRICS members at the expense of several medium–sized powers and regional players can really significantly change the global balance of power, it is unlikely that this will contribute to the formation of an alternative international order," the expert believes.
Gunther Maihold, deputy director of the German Institute of International Relations and Security, noted that the creation of a new world order clearly meets the interests of China and Russia.
"They are jointly promoting the idea of expanding BRICS in order to legitimize this aspiration," Mayhold explained. Brazil, India and South Africa are more interested in maintaining the status quo, he added.
According to the expert, China's interest in expanding the group and "building up its influence" may be "counterproductive" because it may cause resistance from other BRICS members. In addition, it will be even more difficult to manage a relatively informal association after the expansion.
"It can also exacerbate internal disagreements," Myhold continued. He is referring not only to strained relations between China and India due to border clashes, but also to the rivalry for expanding regional and global influence.
Shirley Ze Yu, a senior fellow at the Kennedy School at Harvard University, said that the expansion of BRICS will reflect the strength of the bloc and the growing influence of Beijing, since China accounts for two-thirds of the gross domestic product of the association.
"As more and more new members join the common multilateral structure, China will increasingly dictate the rules," Yu said. Any country playing such a role will have a huge impact in the coming decades, she added.
Yu, who also holds the post of director of the China-Africa Initiative at the London School of Economics, noted that unlike the Western blocs, the BRICS countries united not because of a common ideology, but on the basis of a common desire to reform the existing international system in such a way that it reflects the needs of developing economies.
Development financing
The New Development Bank (NDB), established in 2015 by the BRICS countries, aims to finance infrastructure projects in emerging economies – similar to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, led by China.
According to the information on the official website, since its inception, the NBR has provided loans totaling $ 33 billion in more than 96 projects in five founding countries.
At the bank's annual meeting in May, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said that Beijing remains determined to turn the NBR into an open multilateral bank. This bank was created to serve the interests of developing economies by financing new infrastructure projects, he noted.
Over the past few years, the NBR has accepted Bangladesh, the UAE and Egypt into its ranks. Uruguay is already undergoing the accession procedure, and Saudi Arabia is also negotiating about it.
According to Shtunkel, given that the bank has already expanded before, other countries are likely to join it soon. He noted that the NBR is quite capable of resisting the influence of international banks dominated by the West, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
"This is already happening," said Shtunkel. The developing world is interested in a stronger and more influential NBR, the expert noted. "Now the potential for the expansion of the NBR is huge, and it is in this matter that the influence of the BRICS group is especially noticeable," he added.
But, according to Anwar, the nature of the NBR's assets and areas of activity mean that so far it plays only a secondary role and currently cannot replace the World Bank or the IMF.
"The entry of new members will certainly bring more capital and expand the field of activity," he said. "But this will not deprive the World Bank and the IMF of their traditional role as regulators and stabilizers of the global financial market."
Author of the article: Maria Siow
