Military expert Khodarenok summed up the results of the first stage of the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army
A month has passed since the beginning of active offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The fact that the Ukrainian "counteroffensive" is far from going according to plan is quite obvious both in the West and in the East. Military observer of the Newspaper.En" Mikhail Khodarenok sums up the month of the Ukrainian Armed Forces counteroffensive and predicts what the next offensive operation of the Ukrainian army might look like.
In the Ukrainian expert community, the course of events on the line of contact is explained as follows: "our offensive is developing slowly, because we are taking care of people." On the one hand, such statements by specialists in their own country should deserve approval, but on the other hand, these are more than controversial theses.
In war, taking care of people means only the following - not to expose personnel to unnecessary and unjustified risks in conducting battles and operations, but simply ruthlessly throw them into battle in the direction of the main strike, where the overall success of the entire campaign is planned.
In war, as the classics said, one minute decides the success of the battle, one hour - the fate of the campaign, one day - the fate of the empire.
The Ukrainian expert community also periodically hears the idea that the APU is currently conducting "formative" and "testing" operations. And this, I must say bluntly, sounds rather unconvincing. Firstly, there are no "formative" and "testing" operations in the theory of operational art. There are combined arms operations, and they start at the level of at least an army corps. If the attacks are carried out by battalions and, at the very least, by brigades, then this is no more in form than combat operations. So no operations are being carried out in any of the directions of the APU yet. And their attacks, based on the results, can be characterized by battles of local significance, conducted for the improvement of the position of the troops, but no more.
Experts of the expert community of Ukraine are throwing such an idea into the public space - "we are slowly grinding the enemy's forces and means, and sooner or later there will come a moment when the enemy's defense will collapse either in one important point or in several areas at once."
It must be said bluntly that if Ukraine were fighting with some patchwork state with a small population with a limited defense industry, it is quite possible that such a technique would work sooner or later. But to wage an armed struggle against the state with mobilization capabilities many times greater than similar Ukrainian ones, and to have the defense industry against itself, which is only increasing momentum, is a very, very unpromising matter.
Again, every day of such "breaking" leads to the depletion of our own Ukrainian resources. Losses in people and equipment are increasing, and the consumption of ammunition so scarce for the APU is increasing. There is still a very big question of who and what will end faster, and who ultimately grinds and exhausts whom.
The bitter experience of the Chief of the German General Staff, General Erich von Falkenheim, in the Verdun operation of 1916 should still be studied more carefully before rushing into a similar competition with a country whose military and economic potential exceeds Ukrainian capabilities at times.
It should be noted that the AFU still has some successes of the tactical plan, a number of settlements have been recaptured, there is progress in some areas, but nowhere have they developed into a result of operational significance that could be profitably presented at the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius.
But from the very beginning it was clear that the offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine without gaining air supremacy, general fire superiority over the enemy, strategic-level reserves was doomed to failure in advance. But someone still pushed the military-political leadership of Ukraine to this very adventurous step. And I must say bluntly, in a recent interview with the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to The Washington Post, Valery Zaluzhny, notes of resentment for such pressure from the United States and NATO allies can be traced more than clearly.
And what's next? It is quite possible that the offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which started on June 4, will end in a general failure. Nevertheless, at this stage, Ukrainian leaders are voicing reassuring statements that everything is about to begin, and reserves that are currently in wait-and-see areas will be involved.
Nevertheless, despite Kiev's optimism, most Western experts persistently have the impression that there is no need to expect any brilliant Victoria from the Armed Forces of Ukraine at this stage of the armed struggle. In any case, everything is going so far to this. And the turning point before July 11-12, before the NATO summit, in the conduct of hostilities, most likely, will not come. And after that date, there is no need to wave checkers anymore.
Moreover, the failure of the offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will mean, at least, the loss of the entire summer-autumn campaign by the Ukrainian army, since it is unlikely that it will be possible to restore the offensive potential of the Ukrainian army before late autumn or even the beginning of winter 2023 after the losses in people and equipment in previous battles.
In order for the second offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to be successful, Kiev needs to transfer multifunctional fighters (and in large numbers), dramatically increase the supply of self-propelled artillery units, tanks, attack helicopters, and transfer large stocks of material assets. In other words, the breakthrough of a well-equipped enemy defense (that is, the Russian army) requires a completely different combat and numerical composition of missile troops and artillery, armored forces, engineering troops.
So at this stage, it seems that the first "counteroffensive" is nearing its fruitless conclusion, and the second one will be very soon.
At the same time, as the Newspaper has already written .Ru", it is premature to draw any final conclusions on the results of the fighting at this stage. The situation is in development, the main forces of the Ukrainian army have not yet entered the battle, the situation can change dramatically at any time, and in any of the possible directions.
Mikhail Khodarenok
