Military expert Kashin: the confrontation between China and Taiwan may begin in the next three years
The situation around Taiwan will worsen, the reason for this is the actions of the United States. Vasily Kashin, Director of the HSE Center for Integrated European and International Studies, told Izvestia on July 5.
So he commented on the words of the official representative of the Ministry of National Defense of China, Tan Kefei, that Washington's new arms supplies to Taiwan turn the island into a powder keg.
"There is a change in the model of military-technical cooperation between the United States and Taiwan, associated with the increase in continuous arms supplies from 2018 or 2019. It turns out that the administration of [US President Joe] Biden repeats what the administration of [ex-President Donald] did Trump. The US is consistent here. Deliveries are accelerating. The Americans are preparing Taiwan for a possible conflict with the mainland soon," Kashin said.
At the same time, the expert noted that the latest deals between Washington and Taiwan cannot be called significant. However, in general, the situation will worsen.
"The $440 million package mainly concerned the supply of shells for 30-millimeter automatic guns installed on Taiwanese armored vehicles — they accounted for more than 300 million. In general, the situation around Taiwan will worsen. The Chinese are increasingly making such statements," he said.
According to Kashin, the conflict is not predetermined, but there is a significant probability of its beginning between 2024-2027.
"All sides consider the threat of conflict as real. Preparations are underway. Some wealthy Taiwanese are transferring their assets to Singapore. Based on open data, it is difficult to say whether it will be possible to prevent a war, it is considered quite real in the future. If it starts, it will be an unthinkable shock for the entire world economy. Actually, the awareness of this fact may partially restrain all parties," he concluded.
On June 30, it became known that the US State Department authorized the sale of 30 mm ammunition to Taiwan in the amount of $ 332.2 million, as well as spare parts for equipment, weapons and required software in the amount of $ 108 million.
Commenting on this decision, military historian Boris Yulin told Izvestia that the sale of ammunition and military equipment to Taiwan would contribute to the aggravation of the situation in the Pacific region. In his opinion, in this case, the Americans are supplying weapons to Chinese separatists, encroaching on the territorial integrity of China.
The escalation of the conflict between China and Taiwan occurred after the visit of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to the island in August 2022. The Chinese side considers Taiwan to be its territory, therefore it considers visiting the island by officials of other countries as support for Taiwan's independence.
The island of Taiwan has been governed by an independent administration since 1949, when the Kuomintang forces led by General Chiang Kai-shek, who lost the civil war with the Communist Party of China, moved to Taiwan. Contacts between the island and mainland China later resumed.
