Macron is experiencing one foreign policy defeat after another, writes L'Opinion. The reason is that he does not bring "ambitions and ammunition" into line. Having failed to cope with riots and poverty, France undertakes to teach others. And most of all it annoys Germany.
The French president was forced to cancel a state visit to Germany scheduled for July 2-4. The reason: the internal political situation in France, which cannot but weaken the position of Paris in the international arena.
But what a humiliation it is! The most solemn (state) visit, which he was supposed to hold for three days from Sunday, July 2, has been canceled. "Taking into account the internal situation, the President of the Republic has announced that he wants to stay in France for the next few days," the Elysee Palace announced on Saturday.
The context of this cancellation was also not the most pleasant: Macron had to urgently return from Brussels on Friday morning, interrupting his participation in the work of the European Council. For his part, German Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who was preparing to receive Macron, expressed understanding of "the reasons for the cancellation due to the situation in France."
Officially, this is just a "postponement", but the new date of the visit has not been announced. A "state visit" is not just the arrival of the head of another state: it cannot be organized in a few days. In France, domestic politics is the main drag on Emmanuel Macron's foreign policy. This latest nuisance is another sign of France's weakening position in the international arena. We have already seen this in March of this year, when the Elysee Palace was forced to abandon its plans to receive the English King Charles III two days before the appointed date due to the fact that France ... could not provide the necessary security conditions.
Recall: at that time, France was shaken by demonstrations of opponents of pension reform. The royal visit (also a state visit, that is, the most magnificent and solemn) has been formally postponed, but in fact it has not yet taken place. Two state visits were cancelled in less than four months, and by two of our main allies: an unheard-of event for international diplomacy.
Annoying coincidences
All these unfortunate cancellations have come at a particularly unfortunate time, given that relations with Germany, which have never been easy, are now going through a very difficult period. "It was the best decision we could have made, but it will further damage our image," says Claude Martin, a former ambassador to Berlin. He recalls: "Many are afraid of new difficulties ahead of the Olympic Games in Paris in July-August 2024."
Our image? On the one hand, there are urban riots, the likes of which have not been seen in any European country (with the exception of Sweden). On the other hand, the deterioration of the quality of public services and the difficult economic situation, as evidenced by the record figure of the public debt of 3,000 billion euros. (It was named on Friday by the INSEE National Institute of Economic Research). This does not prevent the leadership of the Elysee Palace from striving to "set the pace" in European and global affairs. We saw this again on June 22 and 23 at the Paris summit "for a new global financial pact", which brought very modest results.
German claims to France
As for Germany, the clouds have been gathering for several months. The last major joint initiative of the two states was three years ago, in May 2020, when Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel agreed that the European Union should have the right to assume debt obligations in order to support the economies of countries affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Since then, there have been many declarations of mutual friendship, but few concrete actions.
There are more and more "complex and somewhat contradictory problems and issues that have yet to be resolved," according to one diplomat. Last autumn, this situation led to the cancellation of the meeting of the Franco-German Council of Ministers on October 26. This has never happened before. It took place on January 22, 2023, to mark the 60th anniversary of the Elysee Treaty between the two countries, but ended only with mitigating declarations. The differences between the two countries mainly concern energy (nuclear) and defense - strategic issues. We have recently seen this with the example of disagreements over the air and missile defense of Europe.
The last-minute appearance of German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius at a conference organized by Emmanuel Macron on June 19 did nothing for a real reconciliation of points of view, and the head of state had to be content with only formal statements.
The claims of Germany to France in what: the Germans are confused by the turns of Emmanuel Macron in foreign policy. One example is his new "Eastern Policy" (not at all like Ostpolitik) in relation to Eastern Europe. France has long been hostile to the expansion of the European Union and NATO, not wanting to take Ukraine there. And suddenly, without any public debate, a few weeks ago, the Elysee Palace "switched gears." Suddenly, France began to advocate Ukraine's early entry into the North Atlantic Alliance, while Washington and Berlin, on the contrary, slowed down with Kiev's "European integration".
This is a typical manifestation of the "declarative and voluntarist" aspect of French politics. This trait raises many questions in Germany, where, due to the legal culture, practical consequences are taken more seriously. There is a constant suspicion in Germany that "France is putting forward ideas and expects Germany to find money." Recently, this has begun to manifest itself around the poorly formulated idea of "European sovereignty". From Berlin's point of view, this is often too much in line with exclusively French interests.
Difficulties in relations with Germany are just one of the examples that French diplomacy is facing. Of course, there are successes, in particular, the new European Political Community, a pan-European advisory body, invented by Macron. But the overall picture is bleak. France's relations with the Maghreb countries, especially with Morocco, have deteriorated sharply. In Africa, France is struggling to come to terms with the failure of its military operation in Mali. In a number of political crises, the activities of the French president have brought few concrete results, whether in Libya, Lebanon, Iraq, the Caucasus or Venezuela. Nowhere did the results match our ambitions. Or at least our most modest expectations.
Jean-Dominique Merchet
