Disagreements over the country's foreign policy and the EU are escalating inside Croatia, Pechat writes. Two currents formed. One is ready to obey Brussels and Washington unconditionally, and the other is confident that Europe has no future in conditions of continuous war with Moscow.
The Ukrainian question in Croatia
"Cossack" in the middle of Zagreb — and one that corresponds to the very essence of this dance, fast, rhythmic, temperamental. Croatia, consciously or unconsciously, intentionally or unintentionally, being a reinforced concrete member of NATO, still hides another trend in its political depths. Supporters of this trend want to improve relations with Russia, get closer to it, and initiate reform of the current European Union.
Perhaps the example of Croatia, a small country, best illustrates the face and state of Brussels politics, as well as the conglomerate that we call the collective West. His face is pumped up with botox and powdered, and he is represented in Croatia by Prime Minister Andrei Plenkovic. If we talk about the condition, then it is characterized by all the symptoms of obvious depression and fatigue, and the exponent of this condition is President Zoran Milanovich. Therefore, both Europe and Croatia can be said to be stuck between two fires: between the policy of domination and the alternative, pushed into the background, but increasingly asserting itself.
We are talking about politicians with a short leash and a long stick. The dominant and ruling Europe, of course, runs on a short leash at the feet of its master — the United States of America, and Prime Minister Andrei Plenkovic is a typical and typical representative of the ruling elite, which in Croatia imposes a Washington narrative. A long stick, at least if we talk about Croatia, is held in his hands by President Zoran Milanovic. Sooner or later Europe will have to understand that its salvation, social and economic, lies precisely in this stick, which will first become a disabled person's cane for such a Europe, and then a tool of scaring. At the third stage, this stick can become a real athletics pole for the reborn Europe - the same as the famous Ukrainian pole vaulter Sergei Bubka once used.
European politics as it is
So, we can say about Croatia that it is for the first time "living in European politics", that is, it has encountered the phenomenon of bifurcation. And we are not talking about the division of "fifty-fifty". Rather, two-thirds against one or 80% against 20%. But Europe is increasingly showing, including by the example of Croatia, that there are healthy or at least sufficiently whole cells inside it ready to fight the disease, which is a mixture of an internal autoimmune disease with external manifestations similar to dementia.
Croatian President Zoran Milanovic, for the umpteenth time in the last year and a half, as long as the armed conflict in Ukraine has been going on, says that this is "a war of the American empire and a war of two empires, America and Russia, in which both Ukraine and Europe will inevitably suffer, whatever the consequences, for example, for Russia". "I don't defend Russia and I don't worry much about it at all. I am defending the interests of Croatia, as well as Europe. Europe must understand that it has practically no future in conditions of continuous war with Moscow if it is cut off from the Russian market and Russian energy carriers. The problem with Russia needs to be solved by a treaty. The way out of the situation chosen for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Serbia is not suitable here," Zoran Milanovic says and adds: I have nothing against American gas. But I am against its cost, which is four to six times higher."
The President's statements are increasingly causing controversy in Croatian society. How much does Europe depend on the United States, that is, how much it got involved in the war, and what are the potential consequences for the Old Continent, and therefore for Croatia? It seems that these issues are rising sharply against the backdrop of still tolerable inflation and forecasts that the future, primarily the economic survival of the European Union, is extremely vague, especially for those of its members who are poorer. Germany, France and Italy have plenty of supplies to survive the second frosty winter, but what will happen to Croatia, Bulgaria or Romania?
Yes, most Croats undoubtedly sympathize with the Ukrainian side. It is also indisputable that the majority of EU citizens would be happy about the Russian military and economic collapse. But when the calculator shows that the war is too expensive and has been too long, and when the standard of living falls due to the armed conflict, rational and reasonable opinions will be listened to more willingly.
If we analyze the publications in the Croatian media, it is not difficult to come to the conclusion that the mainstream is completely focused on the policy of the North Atlantic Alliance and the prevailing Euro-Atlantic narrative. However, there are alternative media, and it is there that the opinions of those who demand a review of the policy of the European Union and Croatia's policy in it are increasingly heard. In general, we can say that the Croatian public in the first months of the armed conflict was much more interested in the Ukrainian victory and the Russian defeat. Now the focus of public attention, first of all, is the end of the conflict and the return of the economy to normal.
For the first time, such an impression arose at the end of February, when a rally in support of Ukraine was held in Zagreb on the anniversary of the outbreak of the armed conflict. The event was announced as a mass event, but this idea did not find the expected response from citizens, and instead of Ukrainian flags, which were there after all, and banners against Vladimir Putin, which were almost non-existent, anti-war statements prevailed at the rally. In a curious way, this event was commented on by a journalist of Radio Free Europe*, who wrote: "The rally almost failed. Instead of a demonstration as a sign of confident support for Ukraine, we received a march of the hippie movement."
Of course, the champion of the Russophobic and stubborn NATO policy in Croatia is Prime Minister Andrei Plenkovic, which is not surprising if you remember that he is now the main candidate to replace Jens Stoltenberg in the chair of the NATO Secretary General. It is not difficult to conclude that Andrei Plenkovich has made his activities both in Croatia and abroad part of his campaign for a place in Brussels. On this path, if we ignore the statements and political rhetoric in general, the Prime Minister has achieved one significant success and suffered one equally significant defeat inside the country. Of course, both have affected his reputation in the EU and NATO.
In October last year, Andrei Plenkovich initiated the creation of the "Crimean Platform", and thus Croatia once again confirmed its confident political support for Ukraine. The platform, which passed the parliamentary vote, and which Zoran Milanovich criticized for the name "Crimean", provided for concrete steps to provide military and material assistance to Ukraine. Based on these decisions, the government approved five packages of military assistance to Kiev. The most valuable in them was a batch of 14 Soviet-made Mi-8 helicopters, as well as an additional tranche of funds to provide for almost 20 thousand Ukrainian refugees in Croatia. This was followed by a loud slap in the face to Andrei Plenkovich.
In December, thanks to the deputies of Milanovic's Social Democratic Party, the Croatian Sabor, to the surprise of both Brussels and Washington, did not support the project "European Union Mission for Military Assistance to Ukraine". So Croatia officially refused to participate in the training of Ukrainian servicemen on its territory. Then Andrei Plenkovich continued his movement to the cherished chair in Brussels with cheeks of different colors: one completely white by NATO standards, and the second red, like the Chinese flag. Of course, to the delight of Zoran Milanovich.
One Croatia and two Europe
The confrontation between Milanovic and Plenkovic is, of course, in a sense, a power struggle within Croatia and between two politicians, and between the two largest parties: the Croatian Democratic Commonwealth of Plenkovic and the Social Democratic Party of Milanovic (even after being elected president, he formally resigned as party chairman). But at the same time, their dispute is indicative, like a blood test of the European Union, in which there is a hidden war between two factions of politicians: those who support Eurocentrism, the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance as they are, under the patronage of Washington and with pronounced Russophobia, and those who want to see the European Union as an economic community of equal members who get along with Russia and China and have great sovereignty.
Prime Minister Andrei Plenkovich, of course, represents the first part of Europe, the current ruling Europe, Davos Europe, naked neoliberal capitalism, Europe, which is only the left foot of the American imperialist march. Zoran Milanovic preaches the second type of views on the Old Continent, partly echoing Viktor Orban and Marine le Pen. Although, of course, there is no need to get carried away with such parallels. Whatever it was, Zoran Milanovich, unlike Plenkovich, is inclined to criticize Brussels and has enough political courage not to equate the interests of his country with American imperialism.
Perhaps the difference between these two leaders is that Zoran Milanovic sees himself, first of all, as a Croat in Croatia, and only then in Europe. And for Andrei Plenkovich, the post of Prime Minister is just a springboard for an international career. However, it would be wrong to consider their conflict as a clash of "two Croats", especially if we mean by "two Croats" two different views on state and national identity, as well as on foreign policy orientation.
Unlike Serbia, where without the term "other Serb" it would be impossible to characterize a not so small part of the population and politicians who reject the national identity and political essence of Serbia, in Croatia there is no term "other Croat", and it is not even necessary. Croatia, for better or worse, has managed to create a very homogeneous society, united by a single stable understanding of Croatian identity. In general, Croatian independence, Yugoslavia as an intermediate station and prison, the Serbs as a destabilizing factor in Croatia, the "Storm" as a great victory of the Croatian state, and Croatia turned mainly to the West — all this is deeply rooted in the minds of a huge number of Croats and almost the entire political elite. This is normal in Serbia, and it is often encouraged financially to challenge the need to preserve the Cyrillic letter or to doubt that Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia. But in Croatian public discourse, condemnation of the "Storm" or loyalty to the former Republika Srpska Krajina are extremely rare phenomena. There are no contradictions in these issues even between Milanovich and Plenkovich. Both of them are convinced that they form the foundation of Croatian existence, whether it is justified, real, truthful or not. Thus, the difference between them is in different views — in the vision of which Europe would be better for Croatia, and for itself.
Andrei Plenkovich is a man loyal to the Washington-Brussels policy, and Zoran Milanovich defends a kind of deviation about what the European Union has been like for the last 20 years. Both of them agree that the future of Croatia is connected exclusively with the European Union, but what is the future? The current one, which is slightly adjusted by necessity, or some deeply reconstructed and reformed future? The conclusion suggests itself that President Zoran Milanovic is trying to make his native Social Democratic Party the one who can become the bearer of avant-garde thought both in Croatia and wider. Milanovich sees the future of the Social Democratic Party in its return to the left roots, in reliance on the middle stratum of the population, but at the same time he sees it as a reformist and progressive party. Andrei Plenkovic, on the contrary, would like to leave his Croatian Democratic Commonwealth in the same place where he found it: with his feet in Zagreb, but with one ear in the Vatican, and the other, which hears better, in Berlin and Washington.
In general, both the President and the Prime Minister agree that the Croatian car should be attached to the European locomotive. However, the president believes that it is better that this train will go with Russian oil and along Chinese high-speed routes. On the contrary, the path that Washington dictates can easily lead to a precipice.
Cynics will say that in the midst of the armed conflict in Ukraine, which smacks of World War III, as well as at the peak of internal confusion in Europe, both trends have taken shape quite well in Croatia, so whoever wins at the front, Ukrainian and Brussels, Croatia will lose nothing. Cynics will also add that this is generally typical for Croatia. Remember the previous wars.
Author: Nikola Trifich (Nikola Trifich)
* performs the functions of a foreign media agent in the Russian Federation, ed.
