The US is struggling to make the Arab world accept Israel, Anadolu reports. They intend to achieve the normalization of relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv that is beneficial to them. Western media are already writing about Washington's "success". However, everything is not as simple as it seems to Americans, the author of the article believes.
Mehmet Rakipoglu wrote an article for AA Analiz about the possible normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which has recently been on the agenda, and what could happen in this process.
What is the role of the United States in the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel?
The first attempt to settle relations between Israel and Arab countries took place in 1978 with the mediation of the President of the United States Jimmy Carter (Jimmy Carter). The process that began with the recognition of Israel by Egypt and Jordan continued in 2020 with the establishment by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain of diplomatic contacts with Tel Aviv, again thanks to the efforts of US President Donald Trump. In the future, the decision of Morocco and Sudan to normalize relations with Israel created a new situation in regional diplomacy. Khartoum's involvement in normalization, although Sudan has not fully completed the process, was important from a symbolic point of view. The fact is that Sudan has provided various opportunities to Islamic movements for many years and was considered the heart of the Arab boycott against Israel.
In this regard, especially in the American media and think tanks, many articles have been published that Saudi Arabia also intends to normalize relations with Israel. The publications of Foreign Policy on June 5, the Wall Street Journal on June 6, and the New York Times on June 17 again raised the issue of establishing an Israeli-Saudi dialogue on the agenda. All these articles are united by an attempt to create the idea that diplomatic relations will be established between Tel Aviv and Riyadh.
In addition to the press and analysts, the White House is also taking political steps to improve relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. In this regard, it is claimed that this topic was among the priorities of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his visit to Riyadh on June 6-8 of this year. The policy of the United States in the direction of promoting the normalization of the Saudi-Israeli dialogue is caused by several reasons.
The first and most important of them is related to the position of the United States in the global struggle for power. As you know, on March 10 of this year, the restoration of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia was announced. The most notable aspect of this process was the meeting of representatives of the two countries in Beijing and the announcement of the diplomatic restoration. In this sense, China has played a mediating role in restoring relations between the two key players in the Middle East and announced to the public about the gradual strengthening of its influence in Middle East politics.
The United States does not want to cede global hegemony to China and wants to restore its role in shaping order in the Middle East. At the moment, it is critically important that Washington assumes a mediating role in normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Another reason is the presidential election of 2024 in the United States. The Joe Biden administration is making great efforts to ensure the recognition of Tel Aviv on the "Arab street" and to enlist the support of Israel and the Jewish lobby.
What mutual benefits can there be?
The key figure on the Israeli side is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. For the Prime Minister who held the post and during the Abrahamic Agreements in 2020, the settlement of relations with the Saudis is extremely important.
First, Saudi Arabia's strategic influence in international and regional politics may strengthen Israel's position under Netanyahu. For Tel Aviv, the restoration of relations with Riyadh is considered important from the point of view of overcoming isolation from the Arab world. Secondly, a possible normalization may facilitate Netanyahu's struggle with domestic political challenges. Thus, the Netanyahu government, facing protests for many reasons, primarily because of corruption, wants to prevent a turbulent situation in domestic politics.
The Saudis use dialogue with Israel as a trump card. In this regard, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, namely the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, in exchange for restoring relations with Tel Aviv, demanded Washington's assistance in developing the nuclear program of his Arab monarchy. It is expected that many institutions and organizations, primarily the US Senate, will oppose this requirement.
Another condition of the Crown Prince is the lifting of sanctions imposed due to the murder of Khashoggi (Kaşıkçı). The third request is the signing of a new defense agreement with the United States. Lifting sanctions restrictions and signing a defense pact is not such a distant prospect. Moreover, even granting Saudi Arabia the status of a strategic ally outside NATO, which was assigned to Qatar, Jordan, and Israel, is considered as a possible option. With this step, Saudi Arabia will be able to gain easier access to arms supplies and the US security umbrella and take concrete steps towards normalizing relations with Israel.
What prevents normalization?
Currently, Saudi Arabia does not have any ideological or religious reservations in the process of normalizing relations with Israel. Thus, Riyadh has not expressed any condemnation regarding the Abrahamic Agreements signed in 2020. Contrary to the demands of the Palestinians, the Saudi media positively covered the normalization processes. The press followed a broadcasting policy in which the thesis was broadcast that the establishment of diplomatic relations would contribute to regional peace.
At the same time, we can talk about some dynamics that hinder the process of normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The first is the violation of human rights by Israel and the refusal to recognize Palestine as a State with Jerusalem as its capital. While Riyadh insists on the settlement of the problem on the principle of "two states", Tel Aviv continues its encroachments, and this hinders normalization.
Another reason is the structures of regional alliances and changing balances. The reduction of tensions in the Middle East, primarily against the background of normalization of relations between Riyadh and Tehran, reduces Saudi Arabia's need for Israel. In addition, it can be predicted that the Kingdom, which has normalized relations with Iran, with which diplomatic relations have been at a low level since 2016, will not want to jeopardize this process.
Finally, another factor can be called the reaction of the Arabs to normalization. Despite the fact that Saudi Arabia is modernizing under the leadership of the Crown Prince, the development of relations with Tel Aviv may damage the image of the Kingdom, bearing the title of "Servant of the Two Shrines", in the eyes of the people of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic world. Thus, a survey conducted by the analytical center "Washington Institute for Near East Policy" (Washington Institute for Near East Policy) showed that about 80% of the Arab world opposes normalization of relations with Israel.
Thus, it can be assumed that, despite the agenda formed with the assistance and pressure of the United States to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, this diplomatic process will not be easy to implement in the short term. At the same time, we can say that Riyadh and Tel Aviv are no longer enemies, as before, but at the same time they are not yet close to each other players.
Author: Mehmet Rakipoglu — Coordinator of Academic Research, Department of International Relations, Batman University
