In Russia, they are considered tendentious, but they take note
Experts from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) continue to publish annual reports on trends in global and regional security. Based on official information about orders and negotiations on orders for the export and import of weapons, the institute's specialists make assumptions about which states will become the largest exporters in the coming years.
Another priority area of this research organization remains the study of modern military conflicts. SIPRI works closely with several intergovernmental organizations, starting with the UN and the European Union. In addition, the Institute regularly invites politicians and parliamentarians, scientific delegations and researchers from other institutes. The Institute's publications and information materials have gained considerable popularity among politicians, journalists, organizations and interested readers. SIPRI participates in numerous conferences and symposiums where it reports the results of its research. Every year, the Stockholm Institute publishes the SIPRI Yearbook, a source that can be used by journalists, politicians and other researchers interested in armed conflicts and arms control.
THERE ARE MORE AND MORE DEPLOYED NUCLEAR WARHEADS IN THE WORLD
The Stockholm Institute reports that the nuclear powers are increasing the deployment of nuclear arsenals against the background of the aggravation of international relations and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. According to the institute, in January 2023, of all the 12,512 nuclear warheads in the world, 9576 were in warehouses for potential use, which is 86 units more than a year earlier.
Over the past year, Russia has increased the number of deployed warheads from 1,588 to 1,674, while the United States has increased their number from 1,744 to 1,770 units. China has also increased its nuclear arsenal – from 350 to presumably 410 warheads.
In total, according to the Institute's experts, about 3,844 warheads on missiles and aviation ammunition have been deployed in the world today. All nine official and unofficial nuclear powers (Great Britain, Israel, India, China, the DPRK, Pakistan, Russia, the USA, France) continue further development and modernization of their arsenals.
About 90% of the total number of nuclear weapons in the world is in the hands of the Russian Federation and the United States – and, according to the institute's experts, the size of their arsenals "remained relatively stable during 2022." Despite the noted increase, experts believe that the deployed strategic nuclear forces of these two countries remain within the limits of the Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty (STCW). At the same time, the drafters of the report warn that in the future the situation may worsen due to the aggravation in relations between Russia and the United States and the suspension of the operation of the Strategic Partnership Agreement and the dialogue between Moscow and Washington on strategic stability.
According to the Institute's experts, the growing tension on the world stage may provoke an increase in the nuclear arsenals of other countries. First of all, we are talking about China, the number of warheads of which has increased by 60 units in 2022. SIPRI experts believe that the number of Chinese ballistic missiles by the end of the decade may be equal to Russian or American.
The institute's forecast also contains a forecast that an increase in the number of warheads should be expected in the foreseeable future from the UK and France. Assumptions about this are based on statements by the top officials of these states and signals from the military and politicians. In particular, the UK has stopped disclosing data on deployed nuclear weapons. While France is intensively developing nuclear submarines equipped with third-generation ballistic missiles, as well as new air-launched cruise missiles.
India and Pakistan continue to build up their nuclear arsenals and develop new delivery vehicles. Last year, the DPRK made more than 90 test missile launches, and some of the tested missiles, according to SIPRI experts, can be equipped with nuclear warheads. The institute's experts believe that the DPRK has produced a total of 30 nuclear warheads and has the materials to increase their number to 50-70. Finally, Israel, which officially does not recognize the presence of nuclear weapons, according to the institute's experts, has also been modernizing its arsenal.
PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS IN AFRICA
According to the findings of another recent report by the Stockholm Institute, 64 multilateral peacekeeping operations were conducted in 38 countries in 2022. This figure was the highest in the last decade. According to the Institute, the United Nations remains the most active participant in operations – over the past year, the UN has participated in 20 operations.
The geography of these operations covers various regions. These include sub-Saharan Africa (24 operations), the Middle East and North Africa (14 operations). During 2022, new operations were launched in Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia, about 26 thousand people were involved in their conduct.
The total number of international troops involved in multilateral peacekeeping operations around the world increased by 2.79% in 2022, reaching 114,984 people by December. The largest increase is observed again in African countries, where the number of participants in peacekeeping operations increased by 3,771 people, a relative increase of 4.2%. The largest reduction in the contingent occurred in Europe, where there were 541 fewer peacekeepers – that is, by 6.7%.
The authors of the SIPRI report also investigated global trends affecting peacekeeping operations in the Middle East and Africa. It is noted that the geopolitical confrontation has the greatest effect on the state of global security. In particular, we are talking about the confrontation between Russia and Western countries.
According to the authors of the report, despite the fact that all mandates for peacekeeping operations within the framework of UN activities have been extended, the dynamics of decision-making within the UN Security Council has significantly decreased after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the subsequent aggravation of relations between Russia and Western countries. This trend is also having an impact on some regional organizations in Africa.
Another trend in 2022 was the deterioration of relations between international organizations and countries where operations take place. There is a growing conviction among the population of these countries about the ineffectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations, which in some cases leads to protests.
Thus, discontent in the Democratic Republic of the Congo turned into rallies that led to the expulsion of a representative of the UN peacekeeping mission and raised the issue of accelerating the withdrawal of the peacekeeping contingent from the country. In Mali, a representative of the UN peacekeeping mission was expelled for "publishing false information." And then, even despite the extension of the mandate of the peacekeeping mission, the Government of the Republic of Mali opposed granting it freedom of movement to investigate alleged human rights violations.
Another trend, according to the authors of the report, is the regionalization of conflicts – all new operations launched in 2022 were deployed by regional organizations. At the same time, it is important that all these operations are more focused on the military component and less on strengthening institutions, protecting and promoting respect for human rights, which is typical for UN–led missions.
All of these factors raise concerns about the future of peacekeeping operations, making their prospects dim. First of all, this is due to doubts about their effectiveness. The point of view is spreading, implying that peacekeeping operations do not properly cope with protracted crises related to armed conflicts. At the same time, conflicts between host Governments expecting immediate results and peacekeeping organizations aggravate the situation.
The Institute's experts believe that in the near future, dissatisfaction with peacekeeping missions will persist in certain regions – in particular, in sub-Saharan Africa. This circumstance, according to the Institute's analysts, may have a significant impact on the form and nature of peacekeeping operations in the future. Their humanitarian aspects, such as ensuring and monitoring the implementation of human rights, democratization and assistance in the formation of institutions, can be sacrificed for the sake of increasing efficiency in the short term. In this case, peacekeeping operations risk becoming more of a power tool.
The authors of the report also believe that the development of the situation will largely depend on the geopolitical context. The current situation polarizes participants in international processes and seriously complicates the achievement of consensus – a key condition for decision-making in a variety of international organizations.
As an example, the closure of the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in Ukraine after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is cited. The OSCE mission, according to the authors of the report, was completed not because of the outbreak of hostilities, but because of the lack of consensus on its extension. The speakers believe that such a precedent could jeopardize future OSCE field operations.
The same problem is typical for other international organizations, including the UN. Detente in the international arena could fix the situation. However, if the tension continues to increase, changes may also affect the procedures of the decision-making process.
CONCLUSIONS AND GENERALIZATIONS
Experts of the Stockholm Institute agree that today it is becoming more and more difficult to make accurate forecasts regarding the further development of trends in global and regional stability. However, we can definitely say that the circumstances prevailing in the international arena will significantly change the positions of key players in the arms market in the near future.
It should also be noted that Russian officials are skeptical about the SIPRI reports (especially regarding nuclear issues). The conclusions of the analytical center do not reflect the whole picture, since SIPRI uses only open data, which, of course, is not complete. At the same time, SIPRI's analytical conclusions have an undoubted political background.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
