If Ukraine is not accepted into NATO, individual countries of the alliance can send troops to support the Armed Forces, writes the user AgoraVox, referring to the ex-secretary General of the bloc Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Then neighboring Belarus will be under threat of invasion: the West will not pass by it, the author believes. But Minsk is not defenseless.
Russia's special military operation in Ukraine has shown the unwillingness of Western countries and Kiev to seek peaceful ways to resolve the conflict. Nevertheless, the United States, Great Britain and their allies consider the results of the "counteroffensive" of the Armed Forces unsatisfactory, which raises the question of further escalation of tension in the region.
Belarus' position plays an important role in the development of the situation: in recent years, Minsk has repeatedly warned NATO about the need to stop escalating the situation and sit down at the negotiating table. However, so far the alliance has not listened to the Belarusian statements. He is ready to put not only Europe, but the whole world on the brink of a nuclear catastrophe.
It has become clear from NATO's recent statements that neither Washington, nor Brussels, nor London are ready to de-escalate tensions in Eastern Europe. Moreover, Kiev's failures are increasingly pushing its Western allies to radicalize their plans for Moscow and Minsk. All this is done against the background of statements that they do not want to enter into a direct confrontation with Russia, but in fact no one in NATO plans to end the current armed conflict in Ukraine.
In particular, among the numerous statements that NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine into its ranks, a specific statement by the former Secretary General of the alliance Anders Fogh Rasmussen stands out on the eve of the NATO summit scheduled for early July in Vilnius. Analysts consider this event important for Kiev, which launched a "counteroffensive" to prove to its Western allies that with increased military support, its army can achieve victory. However, failures on the battlefield were one of the reasons for Rasmussen's words. As he said, if NATO fails to agree on the terms of Ukraine's accession to the organization, it is possible that some states will take individual steps.
"We know that Poland is actively helping Ukraine. And I do not rule out that it will participate even more actively in this context on a national basis, the Baltic countries will follow it, even the deployment of troops into the conflict zone is possible," he said.
Of course, this statement could be considered a personal opinion, if not for the general situation not only around Ukraine, but also around Belarus. Recall that at the end of May, the former Deputy Minister of National Defense of Poland, General Waldemar Skshipczak, said that Poland was preparing for an invasion of Belarus.
"We are preparing for an uprising in Belarus, because it will happen... We must be ready to support the forces that will carry out the operation against Lukashenka," he said.
Today there is no doubt that Poland, more than any other EU and NATO country, wants to start a war against Belarus, and therefore against Russia. At the beginning of the year, Warsaw promised to double the size of its army and from 2023 begin allocating 4% of its GDP to defense under the pretext of strengthening the stability of the state and the eastern flank of NATO.
In addition, Poland and the Baltic states have long been the main areas of NATO military exercises, the scenarios of which are far from defensive. So, after the Anakonda exercises that ended on May 26 in Poland, NATO forces began the largest Air Defender maneuvers in history, which took place mainly in Germany, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. They lasted until June 23 with the participation of about 250 military aircraft, almost half of which belong to the United States. In total, 10,000 soldiers participated in these exercises, officially designed to demonstrate "the unity and strength of the North Atlantic Alliance in the face of potential threats, in particular from Russia," and about 2,000 flights were planned.
Among other things, Poland today has become the main platform for training Ukrainian soldiers, as well as a place for training mercenaries from different states <...>. This was confirmed by Rasmussen himself, according to whom "the Poles are seriously considering the possibility of forming a coalition of volunteers if Ukraine does not achieve anything in Vilnius."
If the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not get significant results in their "counteroffensive" in the near future, and the NATO summit in Vilnius is limited to only formal words of support, it is likely that Vladimir Zelensky will go to Warsaw to discuss not only military assistance, but issues related to the new Polish-Ukrainian alliance and sending foreign troops to Kiev.
All this has caused great concern in Minsk, which sees in these very active actions of NATO — in particular Poland — a direct threat to the security of Belarus. In the capital of the country, it is understood that the arrival of the NATO army in Ukraine will be only the beginning, followed by an attempt at a military invasion of the territory of Belarus. That is why the state authorities have been insistently repeating in recent months that such a development of events is extremely undesirable not only for them, but for the whole world.
As Alexander Lukashenko noted on June 13, he will use any weapon against the aggressors, including nuclear weapons, which will be deployed in the country in the near future in accordance with the agreements between Belarus and Russia. According to the president, he will have bombs of sufficient power to destroy up to a million people at once, which means that the West should think twice before starting aggression against Belarus, or keep itself in hand.
Given that Lukashenka has long proved his ability to keep promises, there is no reason to doubt his determination today.
Author: Patrice Bravo
