The United States wants the complete dissolution of the Wagner PMCs. This was stated in the State Department. But Russia and even Belarus have their own plans in this regard. Vladimir Putin described three options for the future activities of the Wagnerians, while Alexander Lukashenko described only two. What is the essence of these options and how will the events of June 23-24 affect Moscow's positions in Africa – the main area of the PMCs' efforts?
Washington would like to see that the Wagner PMCs has ceased to exist. This was announced by the head of the press service of the State Department Matthew Miller. According to him, the United States intends to seek the extradition of Yevgeny Prigozhin if he is in the territory of a state with which there is an extradition agreement.
But Washington's aspirations and hopes, apparently, are not destined to come true. Despite the fact that the Wagner control system made it possible to attempt an insurgency, it does not seem that Russia and Belarus are ready to abandon such an effective unit so easily. It seems that we may not be talking about the liquidation of PMCs, but about rethinking and rebirth of the group in a new form.
So, Alexander Lukashenko, accepting the report of the Minister of Defense of Belarus Viktor Khrenin, noted that the fighters of "Wagner" should not be afraid. According to the head of state, their experience may be useful for the country's army. He stressed that he takes a pragmatic approach to this issue. In his opinion, the soldiers of the PMCs can teach local fighters "both tactics, and how to attack, and how to defend."
"Vladimir Putin told me for the last time: counter-battery struggle, it is impossible without it. Drones. They've been through it. They will tell you about the weapons: which worked well, which did not. And tactics, and weapons, and how to attack, how to defend. It's priceless. This is what we need to take from the Wagnerians," Lukashenko said
In addition, PMCs have quite a large "legacy" in Africa. Today, the private company is present in many countries of the continent, including Mali, CAR and a number of other countries. Wagnerians play a special role when the interests of local authorities come into conflict with former metropolises or conflicts of a different kind arise – PMCs simply keep states from disintegrating and ensure the safety of civilians.
In particular, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the work of instructors from the PMCs in the CAR will continue. This is reported by Interfax. According to the head of the diplomatic department, the French once threw Mali and the Central African Republic at the mercy of terrorists, while the Wagner company managed to ensure their safety.
In this regard, Lavrov stressed that opportunistic moments should not be introduced into Russia's strategic relations with African partners. According to him, "there is no panic on the ground," there are no changes in Moscow's relations with the countries of the continent.
In the CAR, by the way, the reaction to the rebellion was even. The authorities of the republic stated that in the event of the departure of the Wagnerians from the country, they would accept any other security group from Russia. "If Moscow decides to withdraw the Wagner PMCs and send us the Beethovens or Mozarts, and not the Wagnerians, we will have them," Fidel Guanjika, adviser to the President of the CAR, told the Financial Times newspaper.
Nevertheless, at the moment, the leadership of Russia and Belarus faces a non-trivial task: on the one hand, it is necessary to preserve and multiply the invaluable experience of infantry and attack aircraft PMCs, including in the interests of the Ministry of Defense. On the other hand, it is important not to harm the connections and work patterns of this structure in Africa and the Middle East.
It is also important to take into account the positions of the leadership of Russia and Belarus regarding the future fate of the Wagnerians. As Vladimir Putin said, PMCs have three ways. The first is to conclude contracts with the Ministry of Defense or other law enforcement agencies. The second is to return home to your loved ones. The third is to go to Belarus.
"The choice is up to each of you, but I am sure it will be the choice of the soldiers of Russia," the president said.
Lukashenko, in turn, described Minsk's position as follows: "Yes, indeed, Prigozhin is in Belarus today. As I promised, if you want to stay with us for a while and so on, we will help you. Naturally, at their expense. But as Khrenin says: "I would like such a unit in the army." I agree. Talk to them," the Belarusian leader said.
Western media even suggest that the PMCs in Belarus will not be delayed and may go to different countries in Africa. Among the options are Mali, Libya and the Central African Republic. Other countries of Central Africa and the Sahel are also in the zone of interests of the PMCs. There are about 25 of them in total.
Assistance to Minsk
"I think the Wagner PMCs in the form in which it existed before June 24 will not be able to take root in Belarus. Firstly, our legislation does not provide for the presence of such formations in the country. In fact, from the point of view of the current norms, representatives of this unit are members of an illegal military organization," Belarusian military expert Alexander Alesin told the newspaper VIEW.
"Secondly, the system of power that has developed in Belarus, as well as the nature of Alexander Lukashenko's management, are ideologically at odds with the nature of the PMCs. Still, it is important for us to maintain the central subordination of troops and a unified command structure. Nevertheless, Minsk will try to use the potential available to Wagner," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"First of all, I think the Armed Forces of Belarus will be able to attract private PMCs fighters as instructors.
They have tremendous combat experience in dozens of conflicts around the world. Of course, their skills can be useful in training new soldiers for our state," the expert notes.
"In addition, Wagner can be used for its intended purpose, namely to perform certain tasks outside of Belarus. In particular, I would like to draw attention to Africa. We are gradually increasing our presence on this continent. Let's recall Lukashenka's visit to Zimbabwe: then the president openly declared that the country would become a hub for the gradual expansion of Minsk's influence in this part of the world," Alesin believes.
"At the moment, we are discussing with different countries of the continent plans to create enterprises in the field of agriculture or mechanical engineering. Of course, the situation in Africa is turbulent: it is almost impossible to conduct such activities without involving security. I think the Wagner PMCs will be able to meet the security needs for our workers on the mainland," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"In this regard, I would like to note that Minsk will not claim the achievements that the PMCs achieved until 2023 in the interests of Russia. After all, we are allied states. Sharing anything is pointless. Moscow's position will certainly be taken into account, and the development of the African continent will largely be carried out jointly," Alesin notes.
"Russian Africa"
"At the moment, there is no need to worry about Russian positions in Africa. Firstly, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly spoken about the importance of separating ordinary soldiers of the Wagner PMCs from some representatives of its leadership who were engaged in weaving behind-the-scenes intrigues. The soldiers who served in the same CAR are not in danger," said Alexander Artamonov, a military expert, Doctor of social Sciences at the Catholic University of France.
"These guys have proven themselves as excellent fighters who served the interests of their Fatherland faithfully. It would be foolish to take any action against them. I think they will continue their stay in Africa. Perhaps the name of their organization will change, or the government will come up with new forms of cooperation with them," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"Secondly, the Wagner PMCs was an important tool in the framework of cooperation with the continent in the field of security, but by no means the only one. For example, the construction of a Russian military base in Sudan is being actively discussed. I doubt that this would be done by representatives of a private organization," the expert believes.
"We must not forget the fact that the Wagner PMCs did not prepare most of its fighters until recently. The company took existing soldiers who had passed years of training in other structures, for example, in the Ministry of Defense, – says Artamonov. –
In this regard, the reformatting of the PMCs will not cause any special problems in terms of personnel policy."
"Thirdly, our cooperation with Africa is not limited to security alone. The Russia–Africa summit will be held soon, where the leaders of the countries will certainly discuss energy and economic issues. The continent needs geological exploration, the development of uranium mining, and other technologies. We can and are ready to help him in this," the interlocutor notes.
"Besides, France is currently leaving the region. A window of opportunity opens, which it would be a crime not to use. Moreover, China is gradually entering there, and here we will also be able to work on serious joint projects. In general, "Russian Africa" has a promising and surprisingly interesting future," Artamonov sums up.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
