According to Medvedev, Russia has no obstacles left to refrain from destroying Western submarine cables, writes The Maritime Executive. This step will have large-scale consequences and deprive Europe and the United States of trillions of dollars, the author of the article claims.
A week ago, when the Ukrainian offensive was gaining momentum, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that Moscow, in response to the alleged involvement of the West in the undermining of the Nord Stream gas pipelines, could damage the underwater cables through which Europe and the United States are connected to the Internet.
It is unclear who is responsible for the incident on the pipelines, but according to recent media reports, the United States knew in advance about this operation, allegedly carried out by Ukrainians, and passed this information to Germany and other countries. Medvedev, who now holds the post of deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council and is a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, said in a Telegram and on Twitter that nothing else – even morally – prevents Moscow from destroying these cables.
These words may seem like a trifle, since Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons, but they should not be discounted.
Underwater cables are physical infrastructure objects connecting the digital world. Hundreds of fiber-optic cables, some as thick as a garden hose, are laid along the ocean floor. They allow real-time transmission of data and communication signals around the world. These cables provide about 99% of Internet traffic, as well as telephone communication, data transmission, and so on. All this allows our modern life to function. The first underwater telegraph cable was laid in 1858, and today there are almost 400 of them. Most of them belong to commercial companies that operate them.
It is possible that Medvedev's statement is just saber rattling. But if Russia carries out these threats and cuts the submarine cables, the consequences will be large-scale and will come immediately.
Because of such a diversion, people will lose telephone communication, streaming services, as well as the ability to exchange messages and videos. Health and emergency services will lose contact with each other and with the population. In many cases, they will no longer be able to respond to requests for help, much less coordinate their work and respond to major crises.
Payment systems and ATMs will be disabled. Trillions of dollars will disappear from the economies of Europe and the United States, as banks will be disconnected from the global financial system. The whole world will feel the economic consequences. Jobs and companies connected to the Internet will be closed. It will be difficult for educational institutions to conduct online training. This will prevent students and schoolchildren from getting an education and restrict their access to knowledge and resources.
Online trading will also be under attack. Disruptions in supply chains will worsen, vital products will be in short supply. Ordinary stores will lose contact with suppliers, and this will lead to a shortage of food and other essential goods.
The most important national infrastructure, such as power lines, transport networks and water supply systems, will also stop working, since they all depend on real-time data transmission, and this transmission is carried out via underwater cables.
It will take some time to repair damaged cables. This will be a test for public order in the affected countries, as the population, without receiving vital services, will begin to experience more and more discontent.
NATO takes this threat quite seriously.
Shortly after Medvedev's statements, the alliance announced the creation of a new center in Britain, which will be engaged in surveillance and protect against Russian sabotage against critical Internet infrastructure. The Russian Navy is actively mapping underwater cables running around Europe and has been developing the potential for underwater operations for quite some time. But there is also good news. Russia is unlikely to have the capacity to inflict catastrophic strikes on underwater cables. Such cables are laid all over the world in international waters, which means that it will be difficult to completely deprive Europe and the United States of Internet access.
But the modern world is completely dependent on digital connections provided by underwater cables. The reality is that even a single or primitive Russian strike on several critical cables or bottlenecks can cause significant disruptions throughout Europe and the United States.
Any attempt by Moscow to damage underwater Internet cables will be an absolutely disproportionate response to the alleged involvement of the West in the undermining of the Nord Stream.
Such a step will not only weaken regional stability, but also put the world on the brink of a comprehensive conflict.
Author of the article: Mercedes Page
Mercedes Page is a senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. She previously worked for the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
