Chinese foreign policy is changing rapidly. Until recently, China's rhetoric was cautious, but now Chinese diplomats are "allowed to speak forcefully, sometimes provocatively," experts say. A sudden example of this was China's statement about the distant islands, once taken away by Great Britain from Argentina. And this is a sign of global changes in China's role on the world stage. What will they consist of?
Last week, China's deputy ambassador to the UN, Geng Shuang, made a high-profile initiative. He called for the resumption of negotiations between Argentina and the UK on the fate of the Falkland Islands (which Buenos Aires calls the Malvinas).
They answered the British
We are talking about a group of islands 600 km from the Argentine coast, which are disputed by the Argentines and the British – and they are controlled by the British, who won the war for the islands in 1982. London refuses even to resume negotiations on the fate of the islands, referring to the 2013 referendum (in which 99.8% of the population of the Falklands voted for the preservation of the archipelago as part of the UK).
And here Beijing openly supported the position of Buenos Aires. And not just supported, but integrated the Argentine-British territorial conflict into the general anti-colonial narrative, which partly defines the relationship between the Global West and the Global South. "The question of the Malvinas Islands is a historical legacy of colonialism. Although the colonial era has passed, hegemonism and power politics corresponding to colonial thinking still exist today," Geng Shuang said.
With such support from Beijing, the chances of Buenos Aires winning the territorial dispute have increased.
"Argentina has secured the support of the world's second superpower. A country that claims to reflect the opinion and common denominator of the world majority. In this case, we no longer get a situation of "Argentina against the collective West and Great Britain", but "Great Britain and the collective West against the world majority". This is a completely different alignment of forces in the global political and information field. Although it will not lead to a change in the situation on Earth in the short term," Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Integrated European and International Studies, explained to the newspaper VIEW.
Why would China do that?
At first glance, the answer is obvious. London openly interferes in the affairs of China and its periphery – ignites the Hong Kong issue (strongly supporting those on the island who advocate limiting Chinese interference in Hong Kong's internal affairs), joins the anti-Chinese military bloc AUKUS. So Beijing ignites the Falklands question in response, rightly arguing that the more the British have concerns outside East Asia, the less they will get under Chinese feet.
However, in fact, Chinese interests are much broader. The whole story of Argentina's support is one of the visible signs of the global restructuring of China's foreign policy. The transition from, relatively speaking, the policy of Deng Xiaoping's time, where the main thing was to "stay in the shadows", to the aggressive and assertive course of Xi Jinping.
"Chinese foreign policy is changing before our eyes, becoming more active. Previously, Beijing was mainly interested in the security of its investments and the profitability of economic projects abroad. Now Beijing is moving from purely pragmatic interests to the implementation of its military-political program," Elena Suponina, an expert of the RIAC, an international political scientist, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"China behaves like a classic great power, present in all regions of the world and taking a position on global and regional issues," Dmitry Suslov agrees with her.
From caution to assertiveness
The transition is logical and organic. At the time of Deng Xiaoping, China did not have enough resources – primarily economic ones – to conduct global foreign policy. Now there is. In addition, at some stage, Beijing had to move from global economic expansion (started back in the 90s - zero years) to military-political, to protect its investments.
Finally, Washington's policy has become an important incentive for this transition. "The confrontation with Beijing was unleashed by the United States, especially during the Biden administration. It was this administration that gave this confrontation a systemic and system-forming character. I made it a priority in American foreign policy, a core priority of military policy," says Dmitry Suslov.
China's military-political expansion goes in three directions. Firstly, the activation of rhetoric through the building of a global anti-American narrative. For example, anti-colonialism.
"In February, the Chinese Foreign Ministry published a document in which it sharply criticized the policy of the United States and its allies in the international arena. He called this policy unfair and neocolonial. This criticism was simply devastating, not typical of the previous Chinese documents," explains Elena Suponina. – Chinese foreign policy is becoming muscular and assertive. Chinese diplomats, especially high-level ones, also received corresponding instructions. They are now allowed to perform aggressively, sometimes provocatively – which they are doing now. The Chinese Ambassador's statement about the Falkland Islands fits into this new style of behavior."
Secondly, in the form of China's increasingly active participation in affairs outside of East Asia. "China is interested in developing cooperation with the countries of Latin America, Africa, Asia – with those countries that look promising in terms of prospects for economic growth and political development, but which have not yet had the opportunity to turn around largely due to pressure from Western countries. Argentina is one of these countries," explains Elena Suponina.
China's intervention in the Falklands issue also reflects another aspect of participation – Beijing's presence and its position in global conflicts.
"China is increasingly acting as a great power and designating its positions on global issues and on international security issues in other regions of the world. Concrete manifestations of this policy are the Chinese initiative to resolve the Ukrainian conflict, as well as the role of a mediator in the rapprochement of Saudi Arabia and Iran," Dmitry Suslov says.
Finally, and thirdly, China is expanding its military presence abroad. "Previously, he did not care about providing, for example, a security umbrella to some other countries. Now China is openly saying that the American security umbrella in the same Middle East and in many Asian countries is clearly not enough.
That, in principle, this American umbrella is already full of holes and its preservation there in this form interferes with the realization of Chinese interests. China is ready to provide its own umbrella," says Elena Suponina.
Although China's intervention will be limited for now. "China will expand the infrastructure of its military presence in other regions of the world, including Latin America. But Beijing will not enter the war and actively supply weapons to those countries of the Global South that are involved in conflicts with the West," Dmitry Suslov explains. – He is not in favor of accelerating his confrontation with the West. Despite the fact that the United States clearly refused to change its policy towards China on the Taiwan issue, human rights, technology, Beijing still agreed to receive Secretary Blinken. I tried to stabilize this confrontation."
However, the notorious visit of the head of the State Department ended not even badly, but humiliatingly – upon the return of the US Secretary of State to his homeland, first President Biden called Comrade Xi a "humiliated dictator", and then Blinken publicly agreed with his boss. This means that China may well take a new step in its conflict with the West.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
