Extremely unpleasant information for the United States was thrown into the media just a few days before the visit of the head of the State Department to Beijing. It is claimed that China has a kind of "intelligence base" in Cuba that can monitor the South-East of the United States. And although all the parties involved deny this, the American reaction turned out to be very nervous. Why does what is happening in any case benefit Russia?
The Chinese spy center appears in Cuba, 160 kilometers from the American Florida. This was told by the American The Wall Street Journal. According to experts quoted by the newspaper, this base will allow Beijing to listen to the entire Southeast coast of the United States. That is, to do roughly what Russia did from its base in Lourdes (closed in the early noughties). And in exchange for receiving such an opportunity, Beijing allegedly agreed to pay Havana several billion dollars.
The Cuban authorities deny everything. The island's deputy foreign minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio called the WSJ publication "absolutely false", dictated by the desire to justify the long-term economic embargo of Cuba. The Chinese also denied it. A representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the United States "spreads rumors and slander," while being "the most powerful hacker empire in the world."
Curiously, this information is also denied by the American authorities. Officials publicly say that they do not know about any such base. Non–publicly, they tell journalists that China is not creating anything - after all, it has already created. That China, they say, has been using Cuba for a long time to spy on the United States and in 2019 even upgraded its equipment on Liberty Island.
"The Chinese threat is on the threshold"
The White House's caution is understandable. If he officially recognizes the existence of an intelligence base, he will receive a powerful injection of criticism during the start of the election campaign. Moreover, both from Democrats and Republicans – for missing a serious threat to national security.
"We are in a state of a new cold war – and it has come to our doorstep," said Congressman Mike Gallagher. The former US ambassador to the UN, and now one of the Republican presidential candidates Nikki Haley, also wrote about the "Chinese threat on the threshold". And she called on Joe Biden to "wake up."
The intelligence base in Cuba is perceived by American politicians as a serious threat – and not only because Beijing may be able to listen to military bases in the Southeastern United States. This base is just a seed, the basis for deepening military–political cooperation, which may lead to Cuba giving China the opportunity to project power to the American threshold.
Not through the construction of expensive aircraft carrier groups and their deployment in the Pacific Ocean, not through programs to create nuclear submarines, but using a much cheaper method – a full-fledged military base located several hundred kilometers from the American East Coast. That is, in Cuba. Moreover, bases with both conventional weapons and, possibly, missiles.
This is unacceptable for the United States, because they still think in terms of island countries. That is, a country that is protected from the enemy by thousands of kilometers of water surface.
Of course, the degree of this protection has decreased after the acquisition of ballistic missiles by a number of countries, as well as the emergence of asymmetric methods of striking terrorist organizations (for example, by means of hijacked aircraft, as happened on September 11, 2001). However, the United States is still extremely sensitive to any attempts by potential rivals to place military equipment near American borders. That is why they are watching with such concern the development of Iranian-Venezuelan cooperation, as well as China's plans for the purchase/modernization/construction of ports in South and Central America.
However, Cuba is the closest in distance to them all. And the distance is not to Arizona or New Mexico, but to the most populated and economically important regions on the East Coast of the United States.
A new brick
Formally, Havana is categorically opposed to any foreign military presence in the Caribbean. However, the Chinese are in no hurry.
Beijing, in its usual style, chooses tactics of gradually increasing pressure, that is, a slow but progressive deepening of cooperation with Cuba to the stage of a "military-political alliance with Chinese specifics." The one that China has already concluded with the Solomon Islands and a number of other states.
"China rejects the bloc approach and enters into more flexible relations with other countries. Relations that allow China to develop military infrastructure on the territory of these states, but without entering into alliances in the classical sense – with obligations for mutual defense, mutual support",
– Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Integrated European and International Studies, explains to the newspaper VIEW. In fact, instead of guarantees of protection, China offers these countries its investments and/or debt forgiveness to Chinese banks. And countries accept this payment.
Theoretically, the United States has every opportunity to resist the Chinese creeping into South and Central America. We just need to normalize relations with local countries and stop terrorizing them for leftist ideology. And first of all, to normalize relations with Cuba – that is, to lift the senseless and even harmful to the interests of the United States economic embargo, which brings so much suffering to Cubans.
However, the United States cannot take these simple steps. Partly because the Biden administration and a number of its supporters are obsessed with the human rights agenda. Partly because this kind of decision requires consensus between Republicans and Democrats, and there is none. Partly because there is consensus only on the issue of denying Latin American countries the right to choose a sovereign policy. But the main thing is that American foreign policy has lost its integrity and stability. Any decisions that the American president can make now can be canceled under his successor (as Trump did on the issue of Iran and the same Cuba – he canceled Obama's policy of increasing interaction with the island, returned sanctions).
Therefore, most likely, America will react to China's Cuban activity in its traditional manner – sanctions, threats, cancellations of visits. Curiously, this scandal is somewhat reminiscent of the stories with Chinese balloons launched over the United States in early 2023. Both concerned Chinese intelligence activities over American territory and both broke out just before Anthony Blinken's planned visit to China.
In the case of the balloons, negotiations were canceled – Blinken refused to fly. Apparently, a similar situation is now possible – the visit is due to take place on June 18, but as of June 12, the Chinese Foreign Ministry could not confirm that the US Secretary of State would honor them with his presence.
And if Blinken really does not come again, then the Cuban story will become another brick in the US-Chinese escalation. It will be considered by the Americans as crossing a red line – with the subsequent willingness to answer Alaverdi (for example, in the Taiwan question). Which, of course, is beneficial for Russia.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
