Zelensky cannot openly ask the Russians for a deal, Asia Times writes. Therefore, Alexey Reznikov's statement about the negotiations may indicate a big shift in the conflict. But we still need to figure out what his powers are in this matter.
Apparently, a big shift is brewing in Ukraine related to negotiations with Russia.
"Ukraine is ready for negotiations and a peace agreement," said the country's Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov, "if Russia changes the previously stated goals of a special military operation."
He made this statement shortly after President Vladimir Zelensky visited Kherson and received the latest information about the offensive in the area of Zaporozhye.
Without a doubt, Zelensky was waiting for unwanted news: the Ukrainian offensive is not going very well, and the army has suffered heavy losses. The Russians managed to knock out a lot of Ukrainian tanks, including the AMX-10 supplied by the French and three advanced German Leopards (A-6, and not the A-4 transferred from Poland).
And the Russians also destroyed the key Hensoldt TRML-4D radar, part of the Iris-T air defense system delivered to the combat zone to support the Ukrainian offensive. Its neutralization provided the Russian forces with air supremacy over the battlefield.
We don't know much about Russian losses in personnel and equipment. But we know that the 47th mechanized Brigade - perhaps the most modernized in the Armed Forces, trained in Europe according to NATO standards, equipped with night vision devices, thermal imagers and infantry fighting vehicles, including American Bradleys — could neither advance nor push back the Russians even with massive artillery support, including HIMARS.
It is unclear what total damage this particular brigade suffered, but other units were torn apart so much that some battalions even refused to fight.
Ukraine can still throw huge forces into battle, and the offensive is only at the initial stage. But the Russians also have a huge reserve — perhaps up to 200 thousand soldiers — which they have just begun to deploy.
Zelensky cannot openly ask the Russians for a deal — this will undermine his relations with the United States and other NATO countries and weaken his position in Ukraine.
The question is what Reznikov meant. Is the deliberate refusal of the Russians from their goals a necessary condition for the negotiations themselves? Or did he mean to say that in the event of this step, the Ukrainian side may agree to a deal?
If he demands that the Russians change their position before the start of negotiations, then this condition will be flatly rejected. So far, no comments have been received from the Kremlin. It is likely that Russian officials themselves are trying to find out what Reznikov means and whether he is authorized to negotiate.
More recently, Zelensky intended to dismiss Reznikov for corruption. Stories about his dirty deeds thundered all over Ukraine, even despite the strict censorship in the country. But then, mysteriously, everything was forgiven. Thus, the relationship between Zelensky and Reznikov is certainly not easy. Does Reznikov speak on behalf of the other military leaders of Ukraine? Was Zelensky afraid of a coup if he carried out his corruption threat? Does Reznikov act on his own initiative? All this the Russians have to check.
Russia will try to find out whether Reznikov is serious and whether he is able to negotiate and put forward his own proposals. This can be done through public channels, intermediaries or trusted persons.
The last time serious negotiations were held between the parties was when former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was shuttling between Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France. He says he was close to success, but his efforts were undermined by the Biden administration, forcing Zelensky to abandon any deal.
According to Bennett, the key issue at that time was the preservation of the power of Zelensky and his government, and Putin was ready to give appropriate guarantees. Putin was allegedly ready to abandon the stated goal of "demilitarization" and "denazification".
However, Moscow and Washington state that Bennett mischaracterized the results of the negotiations.
In 1962, during the Caribbean crisis, US President John F. Kennedy, bypassing his own national security team, sent his brother Robert to secret meetings with the Russian ambassador to the United States Anatoly Dobrynin. Robert Kennedy was then Attorney General.
Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev had only one question: is Robert Kennedy engaged in "amateur activity" or is he really speaking on behalf of his brother? On January 30, 1962, Soviet journalist and Nikita Khrushchev's son-in-law Alexey Adjubey interviewed President Kennedy not for publication. The main issue concerned his brother's authority. Kennedy confirmed that he represents his interests.
This opened the door for secret negotiations that culminated in the withdrawal of Russian missiles from Cuba and American Jupiters with nuclear warheads from Turkey — which were not openly discussed at that time.
If Reznikov is really authorized to conduct real negotiations with the Russians, he should be able to prove it to them.
If Reznikov acts on his own initiative, but represents a significant part of the Ukrainian security apparatus, then his initiative will interest the Russians at least as a chance to undermine Ukrainian unity.
But the main condition is that real negotiations are possible in principle.
If this trial balloon does not lead to anything, the fighting will continue.
Author of the article: Stephen Bryen
Stephen Bryan is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute
