After numerous statements about the need to combat the "Chinese threat" against the background of the situation in Taiwan, Washington suddenly started talking about a thaw in relations with Beijing. This indicates that Biden is hesitant to speak out against the Middle Kingdom and is ready to compromise, writes Shukan Gendai.
The anti—Chinese coalition is just an illusion
The riddle of the phrase "the thaw with China is close"
Many assessments of the G7 summit concerning the formation of an anti-Chinese coalition at it do not correspond to reality.
Before the event, French President Emmanuel Macron said that the G7 is not an anti—Chinese bloc and that it is necessary to send a positive signal to China as a cooperation partner.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also said that economic relations with China require a multifaceted approach. There should be no separation from it (decoupling), but risk reduction (de-risking). As a result, "risk reduction" actually became the wording that summed up the meeting of the "Big Seven".
And do not forget that US President Joe Biden, who previously called for the creation of an anti-Chinese coalition, admitted at a press conference after the G7 summit that a thaw in relations with Beijing is close.
The US is not trying to create such an alliance, and Europe does not consider this weakness of Washington a problem. "Not separation, but risk reduction" — this statement can rather be seen as a compromise position with regard to China.
Moreover, Biden's statement about the imminent thaw is an anomaly if we consider it in the context of current relations between the United States and China, when the Celestial Empire is taking a number of steps to tighten control over United States companies.
For example, employees of the Chinese branch of the American consulting firm Bain & The company was interrogated, and many computers and smartphones were seized. The Chinese authorities also conducted searches at the Mintz Group company dealing with credit reports. The same thing happened in the office of the consulting firm Cap Vision.
Moreover, all this was broadcast by the Chinese state TV channel CCTV. China is putting increasing pressure on American companies.
Beijing has also amended the anti-espionage law. As a result, from July 1, the concept of espionage will become even more blurred. The purchase or examination of documents, data, materials or goods that, in the opinion of the Chinese side, may be related to national security or the interests of the state, will also be considered espionage.
In other words, if a corporate research firm conducts a study of a Chinese company, it may be caught spying.
It is unusual that President Biden is thinking about a thaw with China against the background of Beijing's similar policy. Therefore, it would be more correct to consider the results of the G7 summit as a weakening, rather than strengthening, of the anti-Chinese coalition.
So China will only benefit
Against this background, the Chinese threat has become even more obvious. Microsoft has warned that a hacker group called Volt Typhoon, allegedly supported by the Chinese government, is attacking the networks of critical infrastructure in the United States.
Its objectives are telecommunications, industrial, municipal, transport, construction, shipping, government and educational institutions, as well as organizations related to information technology. In case of an emergency, the group plans to disrupt the networks of the most important communication infrastructure connecting the United States with the Asian region, according to Microsoft.
Evidence was found that the Volt Typhoon group was trying to conceal its espionage activities in order to ensure that it could launch an operation immediately when necessary. Naturally, it operates outside the United States, even in Japan.
As for the Chinese threat, the US Congress, and especially the House of Representatives with its Republican majority, adheres to a completely different approach than Biden.
The Special Committee of the House of Representatives on China approved recommendations on maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The chairman of the body, Mike Gallagher, noted that the desire not to provoke the Chinese government forced the Obama and Biden administrations to take a timid position.
He notes that as Sino-American relations deteriorate, it becomes clear that the idea that the United States would be able to prevent the forceful reunification of China and Taiwan by deepening economic cooperation may have been mistaken. In addition, Gallagher believes that the fear of provoking the other side itself can lead to provocations.
As long as the US does not act decisively, the Chinese are likely to believe that they can take more aggressive steps. In this regard, Gallagher called for the expansion of the American military presence in the Far East and the deployment of more long-range weapons in the region, as well as the introduction of other defense mechanisms.
When making recommendations on maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, the commission under the US Department of Defense has repeatedly conducted a number of military exercises. As part of the events, scenarios of a preventive attack by the People's Liberation Army of the People's Republic of China on the military bases of the United States in Japan and Guam were worked out.
The Biden administration's defense budget is too small
In order for the damage to be small in the event of an attack — taking into account also the need to replenish the arsenal — it is necessary to consider the issue of decentralizing the storage of various types of weapons.
What is even more important is the strengthening of Taiwan's defense capability. This is due to the fact that, unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has geographical features that make it difficult to supply weapons after the start of the conflict.
It is possible to import equipment to Ukraine from Romania, which borders its western part. But Taiwan is surrounded by the sea. It will be more difficult to deliver equipment to the island after the start of an armed invasion if the PLA organizes a naval blockade.
During the military exercises, it was not possible to provide Taiwan with additional ammunition, firepower and means of economic support necessary during hostilities.
From this point of view, the Biden government's actions were extremely passive. It should even be said that they were wrong.
During the last few years, when the Trump administration was still in power, the United States made decisions on the sale of weapons to Taiwan. But when it came to actual deliveries, there were significant delays. Even the deals that were initiated under the Trump administration have not progressed far. At the same time, Washington is justified by the Ukrainian conflict.
The US defense budget for 2023 is 4.1% more than in the previous year, but in reality it has decreased due to current inflation exceeding 8%. Moreover, for the most part, the budget is being increased due to the increase in personnel costs caused by inflation.
As a result of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, more and more stocks at the disposal of Washington and NATO are being transferred to Kiev, and the Biden administration is not taking any action to replenish the warehouses. Lockheed Martin, representing the American defense industry, predicts that its annual sales will decline for the second year in a row.
Commenting on the military budget of the Biden administration, the US National Defense Strategy Commission (NDSC), a non-partisan organization consisting of military experts from public and private enterprises, expressed the opinion that it is necessary to increase costs by 3-5% minus inflation. In other words, it is necessary to increase by 11%-13% compared to the previous year.
If we limit ourselves to an increase of 4.1%, American national security may be at risk, which is worrying.
As for the debt ceiling problem, which was eventually resolved, Republicans called not only for budget cuts of the Biden administration. They advocated a further increase in defense spending.
Fear of exposure by China?
Amid growing concern about the emergency situation in Taiwan, Republicans called for a significant increase in military spending, but the Biden administration managed to reject their demand. Therefore, the problem of the shortage of American weapons stocks will not be solved.
In addition, within two years, the Biden administration intends to withdraw 50 F-15 fighter jets from Kadena Air Base in Okinawa. It is assumed that F-22 combat aircraft will be deployed on a rotational basis instead of them, but because of this, the American military presence in the Far East will clearly decrease. Former aviation commander Kunio Oda raised the issue that the withdrawal of the F15 would send a false signal to China.
Senators Haggerty and Rubio share his concern. In an open letter to the Minister of Defense, they stressed: "The transfer of fighters from a permanent base to a rotational system will lead to a reduction in the American presence in the Indo-Pacific region. This will weaken barriers to foreign aggression and create a gap between the Biden administration's defense position and the situation in Taiwan."
The Biden administration, being under severe pressure from public opinion against China, on the one hand, shows determination to resist it, and on the other hand, it is increasingly moving towards reconciliation.
The House of Representatives of Congress and the Committee on Oversight and Investigations are currently criticizing the Biden family in connection with the alleged receipt of funds to its accounts from foreign countries, one of which is China.
The above-mentioned authorities claim that the FBI has documentary evidence of Biden receiving a $5 million bribe during his vice presidency under Obama, and demand to submit these materials to Congress. These documents, as they say, are a compilation of tips from sources close to Biden explaining the financial routes of funds.
The head of the FBI, Christopher Ray, refused to submit these materials to Congress under the pretext of the deadline for filing. Nevertheless, he eventually agreed to it — after he was notified that the co-chairs of the government audit committee, Senators James Comer and Chuck Grassley, had read the materials.
It is impossible to exclude the possibility that President Biden began to bargain with China, and as a result, the Chinese authorities do not take him seriously. There is also a possibility that the Biden administration may act in accordance with Beijing's strategy, fearing exposure by the Chinese side.
If, in light of all this, the Biden administration continues to take a compromise position towards China, then we will have to take the possible emergency situation in Taiwan even more seriously.
Author: Yutaka Asaka
