The new government promises to supply Ukraine with more weapons
The political crisis that has been raging for more than two years has ended in Bulgaria. The largest parliamentary parties were able to vote for the government in a consolidated manner and create a semblance of a capable cabinet of ministers. This happened due to the fact that the post of Prime Minister was made transitional — representatives of the main political forces will take it in turn. Izvestia was looking into whether the new political structure would become stable and what to expect from the Bulgarian authorities in the Ukrainian and Russian directions.
How Bulgaria ended up in crisis
The political crisis in Bulgaria has been going on for more than two years. Parliamentary elections were held three times in the country in 2021. Twice deputies failed to appoint a government, the third attempt was relatively successful. The Cabinet of Ministers was formed by the party "We Continue Changes — Democratic Bulgaria" (PP — DB) headed by its leader Kirill Petkov.
The design, however, lasted only a few months. One of the reasons is the economic crisis provoked by the anti—Russian policy. Petkov's government, after the start of the SVO, refused Russian gas, which covered 90% of all the country's needs. Instead, Sofia tried to establish supplies from Azerbaijan, and also began receiving LNG from the United States. However, it was not possible to cover all the needs. As a result, fuel prices have jumped in the country, and inflation has reached record levels.
The second point is a series of scandals. Petkov's government tried to coordinate official arms supplies to Ukraine, but failed to get the decision through parliament. Opinion polls also showed that the majority of the country's residents are against military assistance to Ukraine. As a result, unofficial deliveries were established. According to Bulgarian journalists, Sofia handed over to Kiev Soviet tanks, shells, rockets for multiple launch rocket systems and much more. Weapons and ammunition were transported through the territory of Romania, and also transported by air through the Polish Rzeszow airport.
Kirill Petkov at a rally in Sofia
Image Source: Photo: Global Look Press/IMAGO
As a result of a series of squabbles and conflicts, the government and the ruling coalition collapsed. New parliamentary elections were held in October 2022. According to their results, not a single political force was able to create a government again. In April, the fifth election in two years was held. The winner with 26.4% was the GERB party of former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, and PP — DB with 24.5% took second place. There were no prospects for resolving the crisis again.
What has changed now
The Coat of Arms and PP —DB are ideologically close. Both associations are in favor of further European integration and the development of relations with NATO. Nevertheless, the leaders of the parties openly feud. The head of GERB Boyko Borisov has a long-term trail of corruption scandals and ties with odious oligarchs. And PP — DB made the fight against corruption the basis of its program, that is, it was actually created to fight GERB.
The prospect of a sixth election loomed before the country. But a number of factors still helped the largest parties to agree. On the one hand, the European Union, due to the lack of a capable government, blocked the allocation of €5 billion to Bulgaria intended for economic recovery after the pandemic. In a country with a high level of corruption, some of this money could have settled in the pockets of officials, that is, blocking aid affected them personally.
Photo: Global Look Press/Hristo Rusev
Image source: iz.ru
In addition, the pro-European reputation of the main parties began to crumble. Due to political turbulence, the country ceased to apply for joining the euro zone in 2024, the cancellation of the Bulgarian lev was postponed for at least a year. Bulgaria's accession to the Schengen area has also been postponed indefinitely.
Finally, internal trends have become threatening. Pro-Russian political forces were rapidly gaining popularity. So, every early election, the Vozrozhdenie party, which advocates withdrawal from NATO and criticizes the European Union, doubled its result. In April of this year, she received 14% of the votes and took third place. With such trends, it would soon be impossible to create a government without it.
As a result, the pro-European antagonist parties had to negotiate hastily. At the same time, they still did not create a common coalition, instead they agreed on a so-called rotational scheme. Its essence is that at first the government from PP — DB will govern the country for nine months, the next nine months — from GERB. The scheme is designed for a year and a half, further plans have not yet been discussed.
On June 6, the Bulgarian parliament approved the first part of the deal — appointed a representative of PP—DB, academician Nikolay Denkov, as head of government. The Deputy Prime Minister was the representative of GERB, former European Commissioner Maria Gabriel. According to the agreements, in nine months they will switch places: Gabriel will take the post of prime minister, and Denkov will be her deputy.
It is known that external forces actively participated in the process of creating the Cabinet of Ministers. This, in particular, is evidenced by the recording of the meeting of the PP — DB party, which was published by former Sports Minister Radostin Vasilev. It follows from it that the candidacies of ministers and heads of special services were discussed with the leadership of the European Union, including the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, as well as with representatives of an unnamed embassy.
Head of the Bulgarian Government Nikolay Denkov
Image source: Photo: REUTERS/Stoyan Nenov
After being elected to the post of Prime Minister, Nikolay Denkov spoke about the priorities of the government. Among them are the implementation of judicial reform, as well as the development and adoption of a state budget that will help accelerate the country's entry into the eurozone. New Defense Minister Todor Tagarev said that Bulgaria will continue to arm Ukraine. "We must do everything necessary to strengthen our defense capability, as well as provide assistance to Ukraine so that it can launch a counteroffensive," he said.
The opposition strongly opposed the formed government. The leader of the "Renaissance" Kostadin Kostadinov called the incident a velvet coup carried out by the American embassy. The representative of the Socialists, Cornelia Ninova, said that the incident had nothing to do with European values. According to her, the union of the two parties gave birth to a "one-armed and two-headed Frankenstein." Bulgarian President Rumen Radev noted that the two parties had deceived the voters. "You remember how Briskly Borisov traveled around the country and explained that "We continue the changes" have destroyed the state, and if they come to power, they will finish it. Today he gives them power," he said.
What experts say
Oksana Petrovskaya, an expert at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, emphasizes that it is difficult to predict the fate of the formed government.
— This is the first such experience, there has never been a rotating government in Bulgaria before. In addition, we see an attempt to unite irreconcilable enemies. Distrust within the government is very great. I wouldn't be surprised if the parliamentary union collapses in a couple of months and the political crisis continues with another string of elections," she believes.
Photo: REUTERS/Stoyan Nenov
Image source: iz.ru
Petrovskaya also adds that Bulgaria is unlikely to significantly increase aid to Ukraine.
— Sofia can join the EU program for the supply of a million ammunition to Kiev, the country is capable of producing shells for Soviet artillery systems. In addition, there are talks about the transfer of 16 MiG-29 fighters to Kiev, six of them are in working condition. There are no other opportunities to somehow help the Ukrainian army," the interlocutor pointed out.
Oleg Bondarenko, director of the Progressive Policy Foundation, believes that the Bulgarian government has a chance of survival.
— I would draw attention to the fact that the frontrunners of the largest parties have retreated into the shadows and did not apply for the post of prime minister. Minor figures were promoted to the first roles. In part, this can smooth out contradictions and provide stability to the power structure. Although I would not rule out that all efforts will go to waste," the expert says.
According to Bondarenko, Sofia is not independent in the issue of arms supplies to Ukraine. If Washington and Brussels let down the order, then Sofia will have to take a visor and carry out the orders received, the political scientist notes.
Igor Karmazin
