If Kiev fails the counteroffensive, one of Biden's landmark achievements in the international arena will go to waste, writes Politico. In addition, if Ukraine does not meet the expectations of the West, then the economic assistance provided to it may also end.
Alexander Ward
Jonathan Lemire
The problem of the national debt limit has been solved, and now attention is focused on international problems, which are becoming more and more.
Senior American leaders are convinced that the future support of Ukraine's military efforts and the reputation of President Joe Biden in the world depend on the success of Kiev's counteroffensive.
There will be success – and military-economic assistance from the West will flow like a river. But it is worth stumbling or deceiving expectations – and such help will surely run out. Calls for an expedited diplomatic settlement will sound louder and louder, and one of the landmark achievements of the White House in the international arena will go to waste.
During the 16 months of the armed conflict with Russia, Kiev also had many turning points. But the counteroffensive he launched is of great importance for Washington, where domestic politics complicates the overall situation.
The White House does not know whether lawmakers will approve additional funding for Ukraine when the already allocated tranche ends. Administration officials fear that any setbacks at the beginning of the counteroffensive will give Republicans in the House of Representatives more opportunities to derail attempts by their Senate colleagues to increase defense spending.
The excitement in Washington is also growing due to the fact that Ukrainians are striking at Russian territory, and to a great depth. Because of this, very harsh warnings are being sounded through behind-the-scenes diplomatic channels.
The administration believes that Kiev or at least pro-Ukrainian forces are responsible for the drone strike on the Kremlin and for the explosions that killed a well-known military blogger, as well as the daughter of Alexander Dugin. And this week there was a report by The Washington Post, which says that according to American intelligence, the government of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky planned to undermine the Nord Stream pipelines. However, then, officials note, it was done by a certain pro-Ukrainian group.
A Politico correspondent spoke with five American officials about how the growing concern over Ukraine's actions could upset Biden's hopes for a victorious return to world politics. All sources agreed to the conversation on condition of anonymity, as it was about confidential internal matters.
Political uncertainty in the United States and the expansion of military operations in Eastern Europe are the backdrop against which world leaders will gather in July in Vilnius, Lithuania, for the NATO summit. This meeting will be a key moment for Biden, who intends to make a stop in Helsinki to celebrate Finland's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance.
On Thursday, Biden, standing next to British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, once again promised Ukraine support and tried not to focus on the skepticism of Republicans about the financing of Kiev.
"I believe that we will have the necessary funding for Ukraine for as long as it takes," the American president said.
According to senior leaders from the administration, she is confident in the story that Biden can tell foreign leaders going to Washington and Vilnius. The United States emerged almost unscathed from the debate on the debt ceiling, which threatened to sink the economy, and this confirms the president's message that democracies can act effectively. The administration believes that the crisis was resolved at a good time for the president, because he got the opportunity to act as a statesman of global scale, and confusion and chaos are growing in the ranks of Republicans trying to replace him.
A successful Ukrainian counteroffensive would be another foreign victory for Biden, which he would be able to advertise. But the administration has not yet given an answer to the questions that Europeans and Ukrainians persistently ask: will the United States provide Kiev with clear security guarantees, will they put F-16 fighters there and will they show Ukraine a concrete path to joining NATO?
"It's wonderful that the president can now pay attention to urgent international problems," said Kori Schake, director of foreign policy and defense studies at the American Enterprise Institute. "The decisions we make today will affect the peace and security of Americans for a generation."
Biden has always been very comfortable dealing with international affairs, as he worked as chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs, and as vice president traveled the whole world.
But his current foreign policy agenda is full, and Ukraine is not the only priority.
He will have to deal with Saudi Arabia, which, contrary to American wishes, has raised oil prices. He will be forced to pay attention to the failed negotiations between the US and Chinese militaries, since the Chinese army is behaving very aggressively towards American ships located in this region and plans to create an intelligence base in Cuba. And he is waiting for a difficult visit this month by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who refutes Biden's arguments that the defining conflict of the XXI century is the conflict between democracy and autocracy.
The Biden administration has been saying from the very first days that the source of American strength is the internal front. If the country is fine, then the United States will achieve great success around the world. Biden has repeatedly said that the lines between domestic and foreign policy are blurred today more than ever.
The debate over the debt ceiling has exposed contradictions between overlapping domestic and international priorities.
Biden managed to attend the Group of Seven summit in Japan, but he had to shorten his Asian tour to engage in negotiations. The cancellation of Biden's visits to Australia and Papua New Guinea allowed China to talk about America as an unreliable partner.
Tensions between the United States and China have been increasing for a long time, and at some point there was almost a rupture when a spy balloon flew over the territory of the United States. The administration does not lift sanctions against Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu, and recent incidents involving a Chinese fighter jet and a warship that passed dangerously close to the American ones have destroyed all remnants of friendliness.
The American and Chinese militaries hardly talk. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin could only shake hands with his Chinese counterpart at a forum in Singapore last week, as Beijing refused repeated requests from the United States to hold an official meeting.
But there are some positive aspects. American and Chinese officials continue to hold economic, trade and diplomatic meetings, and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is due to travel to China in the coming weeks. This visit was planned earlier, but it was postponed due to the balloon incident.
Nevertheless, Biden's critics say that the ongoing attempts to establish contacts with Beijing have detrimental consequences. They are regarded as a reward for China, although it behaves provocatively.
"The idea that China can seriously become a reliable partner without changing its hostile and aggressive behavior is at best a fantasy," said Jamil Jaffer, founder and executive director of the National Security Institute at the George Mason University Faculty of Law. "Biden could have spent his time more usefully strengthening allies and accustoming the White House and the country to the idea that we are facing a real and long struggle with China."
Biden's new focus on international affairs is partly due to current political realities. In foreign policy, he has more presidential powers than in internal affairs. Using this extensive set of powers, Biden appears in the image of an effective commander-in-chief, which increases his chances of re-election. The president was sharply criticized for withdrawing troops from Afghanistan in 2021, but then both parties praised him for supporting Ukraine and restoring alliances weakened by his predecessor Donald Trump.
"Elections usually have nothing to do with foreign policy, but in 2024 the question of who is able to govern the state will be decided. And Biden can demonstrate this on the international stage. This is a subtle and effective moment," said Julian Zelizer, a historian at Princeton University.
But some people have a feeling that Republicans can turn an advantage into a disadvantage, saying that by focusing on Ukraine, Biden does not pay attention to internal problems and does not allocate resources to solve them. Critics ' arguments may be as follows: "Biden cares more about his friends in Brussels than about you." This is stated by Justin Logan, Director of Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Analytical Institute.
The current moment also reminds of the limited presidential powers in the field of foreign policy. The world's leading oil exporter Saudi Arabia announced last weekend at the OPEC+ summit that it was cutting production by a million barrels a day in an attempt to raise sagging energy prices. Because of this decision, it has come into conflict with most Western countries, which will very soon have to pay more for gasoline at gas stations. Plus, Riyadh's decision demonstrated the futility of Biden's visit to the kingdom last year and his meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
And this month, the American leader will host Modi at the White House, who is invited to the third state dinner in Biden's entire presidency. Such a high honor is usually awarded to close allies, but this time they will honor an increasingly autocratic ruler who promotes Hindu nationalism and throws journalists behind bars.
The White House is wary of Modi, but the United States continues to court him, seeing in this man an important bulwark against Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. India will host the G20 Summit this fall, which will be held in New Delhi.
"It's not good that we need him," said a Democratic Senate staffer familiar with the details of the upcoming visit. "But that's the way things are. We need him."
