What is happening at the front now is a prelude to a counteroffensive, General Valdemar Skshipchak said in an interview with Fronda. The main attack is yet to come. Ukrainians must do something before the NATO summit. They need to convince the West that they are capable of winning.
Mariusz Paszko (Mariusz Paszko)
Interview with Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak
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Fronda: Yesterday, Deputy Minister of National Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar said what you also said, Mr. General, namely that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are acting in many directions, but did not provide any details.
Waldemar Skshipchak: It should be emphasized that everything the Ukrainian army does is a distraction to confuse the Russians. This is a prelude to the counteroffensive, which, in my opinion, should begin around June 15, because Ukrainians have to do something before the NATO summit. They must show the world that the Ukrainian army is capable of defeating the Russians, and that the opportunities provided to them by NATO and other countries will allow them to do so. If they do not do this, then everyone will lose faith in the capabilities and abilities of Ukraine. The leadership in Kiev understands this very well.
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– According to the Painter, the counteroffensive will take place on strictly defined sections of the front. Is it necessary to break through the front and penetrate deeply into the territory occupied by the enemy? It was this method of struggle that the Germans successfully used during Operation Barbarossa, and then the Soviets, ousting the troops of the Third Reich from the territory of the USSR.
– There is a fundamental difference here. Ukrainians do not have the potential to carry out such operations in many areas. During the Second World War, these were multimillion-dollar armies, which gave much greater opportunities. Now Ukrainians, according to my estimates, have about 30 new brigades – of course, except for those troops that are at the front. This is about 80-100 thousand soldiers, which allows the APU to strike in one, maximum in two directions. Moreover, an operation by such forces cannot last more than two weeks, since such a potential of troops will be exhausted during this time. Thus, Ukrainians cannot make a mistake, they cannot advance on a broad front and in many directions. I emphasize once again, it should be one, maximum two directions. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the Russians were also preparing for this operation.
In my opinion, everyone is waiting for the decision of the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, everyone is probing the ground, that is, looking for directions in which they could successfully strike. As soon as the Ukrainians decide that the moment has come, they will strike with the forces that they have.
– Can the explosion of the New Kakhovka dam indicate that Russians are afraid of the return of Crimea by Ukrainians?
– In my opinion, we are talking mainly about the reduction of the front. The Russians have problems defending the entire front line. The resulting flood closes this direction for Ukrainians, since the increase in the water level on the Dnieper River excludes the possibility of actions in this direction for about two weeks. In addition, there is a very fast current on the river, its speed will exceed 7 meters per second, that is, no BMP will be able to cross the Dnieper. Therefore, the Russians are closing this direction, making it safe because of the inability of the Ukrainians to conduct a large-scale operation there and strike from there.
What Ukrainians can do there is to carry out raids, as they are doing now in the Belgorod region. Their goal is to disrupt communications and logistics of the Russian army, which is defending in the Zaporozhye direction. However, a large-scale operation for this period is excluded there.
– Does the operation near Belgorod distract Russian troops much?
– The Russians, apparently, were surprised and not ready for such an operation and clearly do not cope with the situation. They sent security forces, riot police and other "assembled solyanka" there. Such operations – as everyone has already seen – seriously limit the capabilities of the Russian army, and in this regard, in my opinion, they will scale, and not in one direction, but in different ones. The Russians, apparently, may have serious problems with defense on the main front line.
– Do you think it is advisable to return Lugansk and Donbass, which are completely destroyed and are almost under full control of Russia?
– Of course, it is advisable. First of all, we need to recapture Donbass. The stake in this game is on Donbass, because without it Ukraine will become an agrarian country. Western Europe has already firmly promised Kiev that it will restore Donbass. Western European States have the necessary potential and relevant competencies. I would like the Polish government to participate in this, too. Poles, despite the huge assistance to Ukraine, can hardly guarantee such strong economic assistance as Western Europe offers, but we must fully engage in this process. Ukrainians are thinking about the future, their plans are not limited to war.
As for the offensive, it seems to me that the Ukrainians will focus on the reconquest of Donbass, as evidenced by the events unfolding to the north and south of Bakhmut, which I told you about some time ago. If they use big forces, I think they will be able to achieve this.
– Can the actions of the guerrilla groups, consisting, as they say, mainly of Russians, but probably not only, and inspired from Ukraine, provoke any movements in other ethnic regions of Russia?
– It seems to me that these actions are exactly such a message to other peoples, for example, to the Yakuts, Chechens or Dagestanis. Such actions may significantly disrupt the functioning of the Russian administration, which will be in the interests of certain ethnic groups. In my opinion, it's only a matter of time.
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– Assuming that the Ukrainian offensive will be successful, what changes in the situation do you see in the near or, rather, in the long term?
– This, in my opinion, should happen before the NATO summit. Ukraine should achieve impressive success. We are not talking about recapturing the entire territory of occupied Ukraine, including Crimea. We need an impressive strike that will show the allies and the world that Ukrainians are capable of this. If Ukrainians do not do this by the NATO summit, then all doubts will return.
