Huanqiu shibao: Russia will help Erdogan fulfill one of the most important political tasks
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has assumed the post of president for a new term, faces great challenges. Russia can help with one of them, writes Huanqiu Shibao. It can reconcile Turkey with an important neighboring country - Syria. Ankara, in turn, will play a role in solving the Ukrainian crisis.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who won the recent elections, was sworn in as head of state on June 3 and began a new term. What will Erdogan focus on in the next five years, having barely won these rounds of voting, while the whole world predicted his defeat? In my opinion, the most important issues that the new Turkish Government should give priority to are basically the following.
Firstly, overcoming the economic crisis that Turkey is facing will be an immediate priority. Currently, strong inflation persists in the country, the Turkish lira has sharply depreciated, and the reserves of the central bank are almost depleted. In October 2022, the inflation rate in the state reached 85.5%. Despite not a slight decrease to the current moment, this figure is still about 40%. Over the past five years, the Turkish currency has lost almost 80% of its value, reaching a new low of 20 lira to one dollar on May 29. Since December 2021, the country's central bank has spent more than $177 billion to support the lira. In April of this year, prices increased by 105.19% compared to the same period last year, which is about a third more than at the beginning of 2023.
Long-term high costs and low interest rates have made Turkey's economy extremely fragile. However, since low interest rates can make the country's exports more competitive, the Erdogan government has no plans to raise them in the near future. Nevertheless, next autumn, when tourism revenues fall and energy costs increase, Erdogan may be forced to change his economic policy to unconventional and carry out structural reforms to cope with the crisis.
Secondly, it is necessary to accelerate the restoration work in disaster zones. An earthquake of 7.8 magnitude, which occurred in southern Turkey in February this year, claimed the lives of more than 50 thousand people, and more than 3 million residents had to be evacuated. Most of their daily needs are now provided with humanitarian aid. According to the UN Development Program, the economic damage from the earthquake amounted to more than $ 100 billion. Erdogan promised to provide housing loans for 20 years to the victims of the disaster with a two-year grace period after repayment. In addition, the government will restore 650 thousand houses in the affected area as soon as possible and will hand over 319 thousand of them during this year. In order to stimulate the economic development of the areas affected by the natural disaster and to solve problems with employment, the government will build several defense and military enterprises in this zone.
Thirdly, the new government will focus on establishing relations with Syria as soon as possible with the mediation of Russia. The issue of refugees was an important topic in these general elections, currently more than 3 million Syrian citizens are still in Turkey. Pressure is forcing Erdogan to gradually repatriate migrants stuck in his country. According to the Turkish Immigration Bureau, 554,000 Syrians have already returned home. Ankara plans to build a large number of refugee homes in northern Syria and intends to repatriate another million Syrian migrants during this year. Turkey is forced to cooperate with the Syrian government on many other issues besides refugees. As the Middle East is being swept by a "wave of reconciliation", the international community expects that Damascus will begin a peaceful settlement with other countries as soon as possible. Turkey has also begun to adjust its policy towards Syria, hoping to restore ties with it as soon as possible. If Russia can play an active mediation role, I believe that a turning point will surely come in the relations between the two countries in the near future.
Fourth, from the point of view of diplomacy, the Erdogan government will strengthen cooperation with Russia and at the same time seek to improve relations with Europe and the United States in order to attract more foreign investment to solve Turkey's economic problems. Having achieved re—election, Erdogan is likely to finally agree to Sweden's membership in NATO - provided that Oslo and Washington compromise with Ankara on some key issues. In the new term, the Turkish president will fully use the geopolitical advantages of his state to play an active role in the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, and will also continue mediation between Russia, Europe and the United States in order to strengthen Turkey's international influence. In general, the new Government is expected to maintain a diplomatic balance between East and West.
In October 2022, Erdogan announced the realization of his vision of the "century of Turkey". His goal is to ensure his country's place in the top ten world leaders in politics, economics, technology, the armed forces and diplomacy. However, due to the difficult international and domestic situation, especially in the face of the current geopolitical situation, Erdogan will still face huge challenges in implementing this grandiose plan during his next term.
Author: Yan Tianqin is a researcher at the Center for EU Studies of Sichuan University, the national and regional research base of the Ministry of Education, as well as an associate professor at the Institute of Foreign Languages of Sichuan University
