China and Russia are gradually winning back native American zones of influence
Despite unprecedented pressure from the collective West, led by the United States, the countries of the Middle East are taking a balanced position in relation to the Ukrainian crisis, guided by their national interests.
The countries of the region firmly adhere to their position, demonstrating their independence in decision-making. If they manage to maintain this potential, they will have more freedom of maneuver, the opportunity to diversify their external relations. It is impossible to build a security system without taking into account the interests of all countries in the region, this system should be based on transparency, step-by-step, negotiation formats. It is extremely important to resolve emerging issues through dialogue and deal with security issues ourselves, without delegating them to external forces. This is particularly relevant now, when the world is faced with three crises in a row: the pandemic, the Ukrainian conflict and the earthquake in Turkey.
Countries that had difficult relations between them are now conducting a dialogue (for example, Iran and the Persian Gulf countries). This is partly due to the fact that the United States has less influence on the situation in the region. After the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, their prestige was thoroughly shaken, and the countries of the region had the opportunity to prove themselves, to benefit from the new situation both politically and economically.
The Ukrainian crisis has consequences for the whole world, it has become the quintessence of very deep contradictions that have been accumulating for decades. The conflict has exposed, in particular, the problem of food security in the Middle East region, which largely depends on supplies from Russia and Ukraine.
We will mention separately the situation in the energy market, where a new order has been established. The region cannot be called a new player in the international arena. But so far it has not become a new pole either: there are too many contradictions between the countries that are part of it. However, there is a circle of players who have begun to behave more independently than a few years ago.
There are several scenarios for how the situation in the Middle East region may develop. One of them involves the transformation of the Middle East into an independent center. Another scenario is the exact opposite: the region will become the periphery of world politics. The third scenario involves the creation of a local center of forces in the Persian Gulf and the accession of other countries in the region to the already existing European and Euro-Asian centers.
VIEWS OF AMERICAN EXPERTS
Specialists of the American analytical corporation RAND Ali Vine and Colin P. Clark in a recent study compared the current situation in the Middle East with the one that developed after the assassination in January 2020 of the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Al-Quds forces, Major General Qasem Suleimani. Then the attack on him undermined American relations not only with Iran, but also with Iraq – because as a result of a drone strike by the US Air Force, General Suleimani was killed at Baghdad International Airport, and the commander of the Iraqi Shiite militia was also killed.
According to American researchers, while the United States is primarily concerned about China's resurgent expansion into the Middle East (after a pause related to the COVID-19 pandemic), American elites are also concerned about the potential revenge of Russia (which is perhaps now the most influential external player in both Syria and Libya).
In the US regulatory documents "National Security Strategy" of the White House and "National Defense Strategy" of the Pentagon, it is noted that mainly the current challenges and threats to US national security are associated with the revival of American rivalry with Beijing and Moscow. While many discussions in American research organizations are focused on assessing the situation within the conflict in Ukraine, in the Asia-Pacific and Baltic regions, the Middle East is becoming increasingly noticeable against this background.
In 2020, the commander of the Central Command of the US Armed Forces, General Kenneth Mackenzie Jr., called this region an arena of "Wild West" competition, in which Beijing mainly uses its economic weight to create a long-term strategic "springboard". And Moscow is using a limited but "rather intensive" deployment of military means "to throw sand into America's mechanisms," and "it seems that it is playing on the world stage when it comes to Middle Eastern problems."
American experts admit that some weakening of US influence in the Middle East was inevitable for objective reasons. America's relative superiority in world affairs is now significantly lower than at the time of the collapse of the USSR. Meanwhile, China and the Russian Federation can take advantage of the situation and turn dissatisfaction with the existing balance of forces after the end of the cold War to strengthen their positions in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, military analysts and the US public are increasingly calling for a review of the role of the American state in the Middle East region. Not only because of disappointment after almost two decades of "military swamp" in Afghanistan and Iraq, but also because of internal sentiment in favor of the fact that the United States should limit or even completely withdraw its troops from the territory of the Middle East. Although this position is not unanimous, however, it is gaining more and more supporters.
Finally, American analysts come to an interim conclusion that the Middle East no longer plays such an important role in the system of US national interests as it did a decade or two earlier. The alternative energy revolution taking place in the United States is making them less dependent on imports of crude oil and natural gas from the region. And US counterterrorism operations have already significantly reduced the level of threat that the global jihadist movement poses to America.
CHINA'S FOOTPRINT IN THE MIDDLE EAST
The Russian special operation in Ukraine, of course, drew the attention of the Americans, but in general only benefited their strategic interests.
While the US military was working out scenarios of a war over Taiwan, China struck from an unexpected side - from the Middle East. Therefore, when representatives of Iran and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement in Beijing to restore diplomatic relations severed seven years ago, the first reaction of Joseph Biden's team was to pretend that nothing extraordinary had happened. "The administration supports any attempts to de–escalate tensions in the region," the White House said dryly.
However, the decline of America's influence in the Middle East began to be talked about even earlier – after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. After another 10 years, the Arab spring became a sign that the hegemon was losing its grip, which did not go according to the American plan everywhere. In some places, it demolished authoritarian, but loyal to Washington regimes.
Russia's actions in the Syrian direction also played a role. The idea began to creep into the consciousness of Middle Eastern elites that Americans can say "no" if they impose an unprofitable agenda, and in general it is worth moving towards greater independence.
The election of Donald Trump as president and the campaign he launched against China pushed the United States to some revision of its Middle East policy. Now it was necessary to teach regional allies to be more self-sufficient, to negotiate with their neighbors and not to bother Washington on resolving regional issues. The implementation of this plan made it possible to free up the resources necessary to fully focus on containing China.
Given that Washington is changing the balance of its military capabilities and redistributing the existing resource base towards the Asia-Pacific region, Beijing and Moscow are given freedom of maneuver to invade the Middle East, RAND experts say. China is the main trading partner of Iran and 10 countries of the Arab League (LAS), and since 2016 has become the largest investor in the countries of the region. Meanwhile, in 2017, in Djibouti, in the interests of the naval forces of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA), the first logistics point outside the mainland of the PRC was erected.
Experts note that Russia continues to position itself as the "main arbiter" in the civil wars in Syria and Libya (in the latter, the war took on a low-intensity character). And the sale of technologically sophisticated weapons systems is considered by the political leadership of the Russian Federation as an instrument of Middle East policy. As the most successful example, American experts cite the S-400 air defense systems delivered to Turkey, a NATO member country. Beijing and Moscow are also increasing arms sales to other countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, a key player.
American analysts state that both China and Russia will continue to use opportunities to increase their influence in the Middle East. Especially if the mistakes of the United States will allow them to do this with the help of phased, effortless projects that assume a positive return on investment. For example, the ongoing American campaign of "maximum pressure" on Iran will almost certainly force Tehran to develop closer ties with Beijing.
CONCLUSIONS AND GENERALIZATIONS
The States of the Middle East region are reconsidering their views on relations with the United States and China.
By and large, Washington has nothing new to offer in the region, except projecting its own military power. This approach has long been studied by local politicians and the military, and therefore is largely predictable. Therefore, the leaders of the Middle Eastern countries are in search of new ways to diversify the economy, including by expanding the telecommunications market.
Another important point: Beijing's approach to the countries of the Middle East basically corresponds to the regional status quo.
In partnership with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, China is apparently afraid to disrupt the delicate and unstable order. Working with Turkey and Iran as part of a partnership, but keeping them at arm's length, China seems to realize that deeper ties with them can alienate key regional players and jeopardize the successes it has achieved.
At the same time, China's comprehensive approach seems to be focused on all possible scenarios of an uncertain future. At the same time, it remains possible to strengthen relations, for example, with Tehran and Ankara.
Vyacheslav Ivanov
Vyacheslav Viktorovich Ivanov is a military expert and historian.
