Defense 24: the conflict in Ukraine has changed plans to modernize the Polish armyThe situation in Ukraine has affected plans for the development of the Polish army, writes Defense 24.
Based on the experience of this conflict, the military has identified priorities for the modernization of the armed forces. Poland will not copy Ukraine, but will begin to prepare for a military confrontation of a different type.
Maximilian is a foolDuring the Defence24 DAY conference, representatives of the Polish Armed Forces presented their assessment of the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on the development of the Polish army.
Reliance on active and volunteer reserves, decentralization of logistics reserves, active operations, emphasis on medical training among military personnel – these are the priorities outlined by the Polish military, based on the experience of the Ukrainian conflict.
The Defence24 DAY conference, held from 24 to 25 May 2023 at the National Stadium in Warsaw, was naturally connected with the conflict unfolding across the eastern border after the start of the Russian special operation. Therefore, the first panel discussion at the conference was devoted to the topic "The conflict in Ukraine – conclusions for the development and modernization of the armed forces."
The discussion was attended by: the Commander of the Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Wiesław Kukula (Wiesław Kukuła), Adviser-Coordinator of the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army, Major General Jarosław Gromadzinski (Jarosław Gromadziński), Chief of the Armed Forces Support Inspectorate, Major General Artur Kempczynski (Artur Kępczyński), as well as the Head of the Support Department, Deputy Chief of Staff The operational Command of the Armed Forces, Major General Miroslav Polakov (Mirosław Polakow). The discussion was moderated by the editor-in-chief of the portal Defence24.pl Jędrzej Graf (Jędrzej Graf).
First of all, it was noted that the war that Poland should prepare for will be different from the one that is going on in Ukraine. According to General Kukula, the military is preparing for combat operations by considering the Ukrainian-Russian conflict holistically, "assessing not only the potentials of the armies, but also what this potential determines." At the same time, it is important not to fall into "perception traps", because "if we draw certain conclusions without critical analysis, we will prepare not for the future, but for the last war."
Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate not the current, but "the future conflict and the potential that will be involved in it." For example, the fact that the Ukrainian territorial defense units proved themselves very well at the first stage of the conflict in Ukraine does not mean at all that the algorithm of actions of these troops can be considered absolutely ideal. Also erroneous were the conclusions of some analysts that the Air Force is no longer needed, since the army supposedly has enough strong air defense and saturation of troops with a large number of drones.
Meanwhile, the Polish Armed Forces perceive the future conflict quite differently, although they still focus on the defensive nature of their actions (due to the peculiarities of their state and NATO as a whole). To do this, the army needs an air force capable of effectively countering the potential of the enemy. Those that could play a deterrent role so that the enemy would not be tempted to start an armed conflict. Therefore, the main task of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Moldova is to create a really working deterrence system. The enemy must know what awaits him in the event of an attack on Poland.
At the same time, it is necessary to check the relevance of previously accepted dogmas: for example, is it right from the point of view of defense capability to pay more attention to quality rather than quantity (creating a small but effective army). At the same time, it would be wrong to contrast quality and quantity. This can be seen even in the example of special forces. According to General Kukula, in order to achieve the necessary quality, it is necessary to provide the right amount. Everything should depend on potential threats, and it is depending on them that it is necessary to determine what the Armed Forces should be and what tools they should use.
Observing the conflict in Ukraine, it becomes obvious that further changes are needed in the logistics system of the Polish army. According to General Gromadzinsky, the experience of the group coordinating the actions of 52 states that support the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Security Assistance Group-Ukraine – SAG-U) is especially important. Initially, the assistance consisted in the transfer of individual small systems (several pieces), and therefore the training of their personnel was limited to training a small number of military personnel on this platform. The decision to expand aid changed everything, because now thousands of military personnel needed to be trained. The entire aid system was modified, since it was not only about coordinating the activities of 52 donor countries, but also 21 States that physically participated in the training, which, in turn, was carried out on the territory of 15 countries.
The conflict in Ukraine has also changed the algorithm of using technology. An example is the Russian electronic warfare systems. Initially, they were used to interfere with the Ukrainian troops, at the same time disrupting the work of their own units. However, later, in order to protect them from drone attacks, electronic warfare equipment was moved deep into the positions, that is, offensive equipment turned into defensive. That is, the same tool was used in different ways.
The assessment of the Russian army, which was believed to have strong artillery, has also changed. However, it turned out that the range of the Russian artillery caliber 122 mm and 152 mm is much less than the Western artillery caliber 155 mm. In this respect, NATO is winning. This advantage is also enhanced by HIMARS complexes. Their use, even in such a small number as the Ukrainians, led to the fact that the Russians had to withdraw their material and technical bases and command posts more than 100 km from the line of contact of the troops. This greatly limits the scope of activity of the troops.
At the same time, the experience of the conflict in Ukraine cannot be blindly copied. There, at the first stage, the actions took place on a large area and at great depth. In addition, the terrain conditions themselves – especially in spring and autumn – limit the maneuverability of the troops, who are forced to use strictly defined transport routes in the mud. Thus, the nature of the army's actions – maneuverable or positional – depends there on the time of year. There are no such spaces in Poland, so Polish troops must act faster, react immediately, preventing a breakthrough of the defense line. Thus, analyzing the operations carried out in Ukraine, it is necessary not to copy them, but to draw the necessary conclusions.
General Kempchinsky drew attention to the fact that the Armed Forces Support Inspectorate has been closely monitoring the development of the situation since the very beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, especially from the point of view of logistics. It was noted here that Poland cannot literally copy Ukrainian decisions. However, as it turned out, some changes in the Polish army anticipated the measures that Ukraine had to take after the conflict began.
The Polish military, for example, has long known that in the first days of the war, the logistics system of Poland will be particularly actively attacked. That's what happened in Ukraine, where the Russians raided primarily Soviet-era warehouses, even no longer in use. Polish warehouses, the location of which is well known to the Russians, will also be destroyed. Thus, it is necessary to disperse the reserves in time, even before the main blow, which the Ukrainians did.
The Polish army also creates small warehouses, for example, at military units, so that tactical stocks do not accumulate in a certain place. A mobile logistics potential is being created so that supplies can be located near army units. In addition, it is necessary to create small convoys (several vehicles each) and make extensive use of camouflage. You also need to have autonomous means of self-defense, including from unmanned aerial vehicles. More and more attention is being paid to the creation of autonomous vehicles using ground-based, unmanned platforms.
General Polyakov noted that the so-called doctrine of combined fire, which is being implemented by Ukrainians, has been introduced in the Polish armed forces for six years. At the initial stage, this happens in cooperation with Americans who have extensive experience in this field. The implementation of the doctrine is facilitated by an increase in the force of defeat in the Armed Forces of the Republic of Moldova. Currently, it is necessary to increase the efficiency of existing systems, mainly due to the interaction of reconnaissance means of various types of troops with weapons of various levels, which allows achieving a large-scale synergetic effect. This creates a deterrent effect, because the enemy knows that he will not be able to defeat our troops with a first strike.
Poland is also preparing for active actions, and not for actions based on the principle of "action – reaction". "We must immediately seek means and opportunities so that we impose the conditions of the game, so that we determine the time and place of the strike and the method of action, and not wait for the enemy to do it." The whole doctrine of "connectedness" is to combine the capabilities of all types of Armed Forces in order to better recognize the enemy, hit his troops, and cause damage to him.
The human factor is very important in all this. According to General Kukula, our deadliest weapon is the people who will use this modern technology. It is on this basis that a permanent, 300-thousandth "human" component of the army is currently being created, and in parallel, the accumulation of a powerful reserve component begins. However, it would be a mistake to think that such a number is needed solely to compensate for extremely large losses at the beginning of the conflict. General Kukula especially stressed that the efforts of the Polish army are aimed at "preparing our people not for a heroic death for the Motherland, but for victory."
During the conference, it was noted that the reserve system is on the verge of a fundamental revaluation. It is noted, for example, that few people are satisfied with the results of the functioning of the previous training model of the so-called passive reserve. The future model, which is currently being worked on, will be based on a system of active and voluntary reserves. "Our passive reserve training efficiency is only 50% of the expected result set, in particular, by the Chief of the General Staff and the Minister of National Defense." These 50% are the maximum values that can be achieved, which means that this system has simply exhausted itself.
The model should be the system of active reserves of the USA, Israel and the Nordic countries, especially the Finnish model. It is based, in particular, on the long-term relationship of the reservist with the military unit. At the same time, Poland is moving away from the idea that professional soldiers start the war and reservists finish it. That is why so much attention is paid to systems that ensure the survival of military personnel. For example, in the special forces and territorial defense forces, every sixth soldier has received medical training. Its importance was also understood by Ukrainians, who, with the help of Western countries, increased the number of trained paramedics. This automatically led to an increase in the survival rate of the wounded. These are so-called dual-use competencies, since they can also be useful in civilian life.
The command itself needs access to a significant amount of real-time information, including information obtained using artificial intelligence. An example is the analysis of satellite images, which takes a lot of time for an unarmed person with the latest technology, but with the help of AI it happens very quickly, for example, when the program prompts what has changed compared to the previous data package.
It is also important to have adequate logistical support for new systems, which should be implemented already at the time of acquisition of weapons. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the increased daily need for ammunition. As the conflict in Ukraine has shown, the previous norms should be revised. And this requires an increase in the capacity of the industry and an efficient storage system.
During the panel discussion, it was emphasized that the amount of weapons currently being purchased is determined not by the realities of the conflict in Ukraine, but by the alleged potential of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. In addition, it is now clear that the Polish defense should be as maneuverable as possible, for which it is necessary to take certain steps.
In conclusion, General Kukula drew attention to the need for a holistic approach to anti-tank weapons, which should be as diverse as possible. "We are trying to diversify anti-tank weapons as much as possible. First, we need a very wide range of guns that our commanders can use to destroy the enemy's tank force. Secondly, such diversity will create a lot of problems for the enemy, who will have to decide how to save their armored vehicles."
