Analysis of forecasts and military-political consequences of itsA possible offensive (which for some reason is often called a "counteroffensive")
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is the central topic not only of Russian media resources, but also of foreign, primarily American ones.
The head of the Katyusha news agency, Andrey Tsyganov, writes that the announced offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is primarily a psychological attack organized by the Ukrainian CIPSO (center for information and psychological operations).
The head of the Wagner Cheka, Yevgeny Prigozhin, believes that the "counteroffensive" has already begun – with the recent actions of Ukrainian troops in Artemovsk to "push through the flanks" to the north and south of the city. This opinion is also confirmed by some military experts, who focus on the start of the active phase of the offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
However, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking to various audiences during his tour of Europe, convinces that preparations for the offensive have not yet been completed and the AFU needs additional resources.
Such a variety of points of view and approaches in the perception of the military-political situation makes it difficult to understand and assess what is happening. Meanwhile, the need for in-depth analysis and forecasting remains.
TECHNOLOGIES AND CRITERIA FOR EVALUATION AND DIAGNOSTICSHow to evaluate the obviously incomplete sum of the realities known to us – and the prognostic estimates expressed, in which, on the contrary, there is no shortage?
Going beyond the quantitative calculation of the balance of forces and means. And at the same time identifying mutually exclusive factors affecting the military-political situation in the Ukrainian theater of operations (Theater of Operations).
What is meant in this particular case? On the one hand, there are factors and circumstances pushing the Kiev regime to the offensive. On the other hand, there are factors that hinder its implementation and even preparation.
It can be noted beforehand that they are encouraging the Kiev regime to attack:
firstly, awareness of the obligations to foreign sponsors of Ukraine and its Armed Forces and the directly expressed demands of the Americans, Western Europeans and the leadership of the NATO bloc;
secondly, the militaristic and Russophobic attitude of the broad strata of Ukrainian society, the high degree of its "electrification" and commitment to the idea of continuing military operations, as well as the hatred of Russia and everything Russian fueled by the authorities and the press. Examples are widely known.
SURVEY OF UKRAINIAN SOCIOLOGISTSThe fact that the majority of Ukrainian respondents (64%) believe that Ukraine should try to liberate the entire territory of the former Ukrainian SSR, including Crimea, even if this entails the risk of reducing support from the West and the risk of a longer war, testifies to the zombie–like nature of the Kiev regime.
At the same time, there is no reason to overestimate and absolutize the data obtained by Kiev sociologists. However, there is no reason to underestimate this data, since it is an indispensable source of information in quantitative form and packaging. A critical perception of these data and the introduction of certain correction factors are simply necessary – for the totalitarianism of the Zelensky regime, for the conditions of wartime, for the conformism of respondents understandable in these conditions.
Taking into account all these reservations, a qualified interpretation is required, including the fact that despite the destruction of infrastructure in many Ukrainian cities, 71% of Ukrainian respondents unequivocally and categorically declare the need to continue the armed struggle, even if the shelling continues.
The trend of strengthening civic identity, recorded by the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) of Ukraine since 2000, continued in 2022-2023, when the Russian Federation deployed its Armed Forces to protect the residents of Donbass.
The corresponding type of identity has grown from 62.6% in 2021 to 79.7% in 2022. All other types of territorial and civil identities were very poorly represented in Ukraine.
85% of the surveyed residents of this country, answering the question about self-identification, most often choose among the possible options: "citizen of Ukraine".
Against this background, Ukrainian respondents' assessments of the effectiveness of the Ukrainian state have also increased – from mostly negative in 2021 (55.8% of negative ratings versus 6.6% of positive) to mostly positive in 2022 (46.6% of positive ratings versus 26.1% of negative).
According to the results of all-Ukrainian polls, the Kiev International Institute of Sociology insists on the high cohesion of Ukrainian society. And even notes the overcoming of long–standing interregional disagreements on certain issues - for example, on the foreign policy vector. At the same time, it is noted that the "fact of the loss of Russian propaganda in the interpretation of the war" is seemingly obvious to Ukrainians (here, in addition to the factors already mentioned, a huge correction must be made for the information isolation of Ukrainian society and the monopolization of the Ukrainian mass media by the Kiev regime).
At the same time, it is noted that "the population of Ukraine fully shares the "pro-Ukrainian" view" on military actions. And this conclusion, with all the amendments and reservations, should not be questioned.
There is a high level of trust in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), its government and the Verkhovna Rada. There is a high level of unanimity regarding the need and possibility of joining the European Union and NATO.
Thus, there is no reason to compare the situation in Ukraine in 2022 with the situation in nazi Germany in 1945 – although a number of Russian propagandists on the basis of such a message suggest increasing military actions against Ukrainian Western liberals, whose tools have become banderization, militarization and Russophobia.
WITH A SENSE OF INEVITABILITY AND DOOMThe activity of Ukrainian Western liberals is largely fueled from abroad, primarily from the United States.
Having a huge information potential and virtually unlimited financial resources, the United States is able to influence world public opinion – and purposefully influence it, trying to subordinate it to American interests.
Analyzing American publications, speeches and interviews of statesmen, one involuntarily draws attention to the categorical and categorical tone of American statements, assessments and conclusions. On the zombifying nature of the speeches of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces Mark Milli. The persistent pushing of the idea (while ignoring possible large-scale casualties on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) that at any cost Ukraine can and must defeat Russia.
Despite the fact that specific dates of the beginning of the offensive are not called, and even on the contrary, the right of Ukraine itself to determine the dates and specific directions of attacks is emphasized, nevertheless, consistent and systematic pressure on the leadership of Ukraine and pushing it to a "counteroffensive" is obvious.
In fact, the channel of necessary actions is being formed with the help of categorical and strict requirements. Such demands were made by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken (in an interview with Fox News on May 2, as well as at an event on the occasion of World Press Freedom Day on May 3, 2023, organized by Washington Post Live). Earlier, similar demands were made by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milli, in an interview with Foreign Affairs.
The journalist-analyst Robert Clark intimidates the international community that "without a Ukrainian counteroffensive, Putin will win the war." However, in this case it is only one voice from the choir.
All these declarations for the general public are, of course, just the tip of the iceberg. The pressure on the political and military leadership of Ukraine through non-public channels should be much stronger. And as a result, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexey Reznikov fatally admits that "a counteroffensive is inevitable" (in an interview with the Japanese news agency Kyodo News on May 1).
An information picture of the inevitability and inevitability of future events is being formed. Although the forces and means of the Kiev regime are clearly insufficient for an offensive, as evidenced by a variety of publications by different authors. For example, a specialist on Russia, Professor Mark Galeotti, in an article for the British Sunday Times on April 29, where we are talking about many problems faced by Ukrainians who, according to Galeotti, are completely unprepared for the upcoming offensive.
The fact that the Ukrainian conflict is almost coming to an end, although Kiev is making desperate and unprepared attempts to organize a "counteroffensive," writes American human rights activist Ajamu Baraka on Twitter.
FACTORS REDUCING THE CHANCES OF AN OFFENSIVEUkrainian propagandists and sociologists do not like to talk about fermentation trends in different strata of Ukrainian society.
However, such trends also take place.
First of all, there is growing concern that officials are profiting from the war and stealing Western weapons. Six months ago, 29% of the surveyed residents of Ukraine thought so, and since then they have had no grounds for other assessments and opinions – rather the opposite.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and people from his inner circle all became dollar billionaires during 2022. The fortune of the Mayor of Kiev Vitali Klitschko is "only" $ 800 million at the beginning of 2023, but it has also grown very significantly this year – from 150 million at the beginning of 2022.
Another reason for concern of Ukrainians is the fact that the team of Vladimir Zelensky does not pay due attention to the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, territorial defense and other defenders of Ukraine. Six months ago, 24% of respondents in the all-Ukrainian survey thought so, according to Kiev sociologists. However, the trend seems stable.
Among the reasons for alarm, we note suspicions about the danger of serious conflicts between the political and military leadership of Ukraine. 14% of Ukrainian respondents were concerned about this at the end of 2022. And today they have little reason to believe otherwise.
From 13% to 18% of Ukrainian respondents are worried that Western countries may reduce aid to Ukraine and its support due to accumulated fatigue from exorbitant claims and insistent demands of Zelensky's team.
All these trends, despite the dynamism of the internal political situation in Ukraine and the variability of some quantitative measurements, have been visible for a long period of time.
On this foundation, there are grounds to predict the growth of internal political ferment and anxiety in Ukrainian society. Especially against the background of noticeable contradictions at the public level between the groupings of President Vladimir Zelensky and the groupings of the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.
The internal political situation in Ukraine largely determines the situation in the Ukrainian Theater of Operations. However, when discussing the factors of countering a possible Ukrainian "counteroffensive", it is first of all advisable to note purely military components: the shortage of necessary weapons and shell starvation. As well as attempts to conceal them by expanding the scale of manipulation – and not only with the help of information fakes, but also with the use of dummy heavy military equipment and weapons.
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SITUATIONFirst.
Despite the insufficient number of forces and means of the armed formations of Ukraine as of mid-May 2023, an attempt of a "counteroffensive" with a high degree of probability will take place. Because the West demands at least some return on its investments in Ukraine in exchange for continued generous military assistance.
Second. The likely failure of the "counteroffensive" could lead to a coup in Ukraine. Deputies of the Verkhovna Rada are writing and speaking more and more boldly about dissatisfaction with Vladimir Zelensky as the head of state, in particular.
At the same time, after Zelensky's removal, an even more radical and militant group of Valery Zaluzhny may come to power, maintaining constant interaction with the US military-industrial complex.
There are other topics that need to be discussed today, discussing the factors and trends of military-political forecasting:
– the potential of countering Russia's special military operation in Ukraine – including the resources of the viability of the Kiev regime, including political and emotional-psychological;
– the rootedness of nationalist and Russophobic ideas and the degree of zombification of Ukrainian public opinion by Western and liberal ideas.
But these are topics for individual publications.
Sergey PershutkinSergey Nikolaevich Pershutkin is a full member of the Academy of Military Sciences, Doctor of Sociological Sciences.