The deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation believes that either Ukraine will slowly lose its sovereignty, or it will face an "instant collapse with the simultaneous annihilation of all signs of statehood"MOSCOW, May 25.
/tass/. Ukraine as a state will inevitably disappear, but it can happen under different scenarios, which will determine the likelihood of a resumption of the conflict, according to Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev.
"I recently wrote why Ukraine will disappear. Now it's time to say how Ukraine will disappear, and also what is the risk of a resumption of conflict in Europe and in the world. It will depend on which way the process of disintegration of this dying state will go as a result of the lost military conflict," he wrote in his Telegram channel on Thursday.
According to Medvedev, there are two such ways. "Or the path of relatively slow erosion of Ukrainian statehood with the gradual loss of the remaining elements of state sovereignty. Or the path of its instant collapse with simultaneous annihilation of all signs of statehood," he said.
"New Ukraine" and prospects of the Third World War
In any case, the politician continued, after such a collapse, three possible scenarios are likely. In the first case, the western regions of Ukraine "come under the control of a number of EU states with the implementation of the subsequent "anschluss" (the so-called inclusion of Austria into Nazi Germany - approx. TASS) of these lands by recipient states."
"At the same time, a certain "no-man's-land" Ukrainian territory will remain, which is squeezed between Russia and lands that have passed under the sovereignty of a number of European countries. The remaining ownerless territory declares its succession from the former Ukraine, its international legal personality and its intention to return the lost lands by all means. Naturally, referring only to those lands that became part of Russia," Medvedev described a possible development of events.
In his opinion, at the same time, this "new" Ukraine will immediately declare its desire to join the European Union and NATO, which will happen in the medium term. "The armed conflict resumes after a short time, turning into a permanent one, but with the threat of its rapid flow into a full-fledged third World War," the politician stated.
Reasonable and sufficient guarantees
In the second scenario, according to the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Ukraine disappears after the completion of a special military operation in the process of its division between Russia and a number of EU states. "The government of Ukraine is being formed in exile in one of the European countries. The conflict stops with reasonable guarantees of its non-renewal in the near future, but with the preservation of the terrorist activity of the Ukrainian Nazis, who will be dispersed on the territory of the EU states that have received Western Ukrainian lands," he outlined the potential situation.
The risk of the resumption of a full-fledged conflict or its escalation into a world war in this case can be considered moderate, Medvedev believes.
In the third variant, he added, the same thing happens as in the first case, but with the opposite sign. "The Western lands of Ukraine are joining a number of EU countries. The people of the central and some other ownerless regions of Ukraine, within the framework of Article 1 of the UN Charter, immediately declare their self-determination by joining the Russian Federation. His request is granted, and the conflict ends with sufficient guarantees of its non-renewal in the long term," the politician said.
According to Medvedev, there are simply no other options. "And this is already clear to everyone, even if it is unpleasant for someone out there in the West to admit it. We may be temporarily satisfied with the second option, but we need a third one," he summed up.