Moscow and Beijing will help each otherThe topic of Russian-Chinese relations is still developing in the direction indicated by the March visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow.
This visit showed that Russia's "Eurasian turn", which has been taking place for a whole year, has become not only forced, but also irreversible. It should be recalled that both Russia and China are huge inertial systems, which are contraindicated by sharp political movements.
However, President Xi's visit did not require any haste. Only now, having familiarized ourselves with significant foreign, primarily Chinese sources, we can definitely say that this visit can become the main summit of at least 2023. The meeting of the Russian and Chinese defense ministers synchronized with him also deserves special attention – that is, political assurances are confirmed by specific agreements on the most relevant topic for Russia.
In the West, they are doing everything to reduce the importance of what is connected with Xi Jinping's visit. The most analytical formulation sounds like this: "The visit led to the institutionalization of Chinese dominance."
TWO-WAY TRAFFICTo begin with, in general terms, the current status of China.
Its economy ranks second after the United States in the world in terms of gross domestic product (GDP). And the first is for a number of indicators related to GDP.
China's trade turnover with the United States is about $ 700 billion, with Russia – $ 200 billion. China accounts for 20% of Russian exports and 28% of imports to Russia. At the same time, our share in China's trade turnover is only 3%. Not much yet. Especially when you consider that 40% of Chinese exports go to Western Europe.
After the launch of the strategic One Belt, One Road project for Beijing (China – Europe and beyond, with the "capture" of part of Western Asia) The Celestial Empire expects to increase trade with the Europeans to $ 2 trillion. At the same time, Russia cannot be bypassed.
But our economic reorientation towards China is fraught with serious strain. Although the incentive is obvious. The plans include the Power of Siberia–2 gas stream through Altai and Mongolia. Moreover, relying not only on the Yamal deposits, but also on Taimyr: they say about 50 billion cubic meters annually. m by 2025 – instead of the current 20 billion. But it is more important for us that the energy reorientation to China should compensate for at least 80% of our losses in this part in Western and Eastern Europe.
Another thing is that switching the arrows to the Celestial Empire will require a strategic restructuring of our entire economy – for which it is most likely not ready yet.
Let's say more: such a transformation of the economy at least raises the question of the hasty development of the Northern Sea Route, the creation of new Far Eastern ports, and the increase in the capacity of railways and automobile checkpoints. Yes, most likely based on the same China, which largely sets the rules of the game. But we don't have many options.
I will focus in more detail on the nuances noticed by Chinese analysts. The leitmotif of their assessments: "The Chinese dream of a great future puts the economy first. In this sense, Xi Jinping's March visit is not only symbolic (the first after his re-election as President of the People's Republic of China and the 40th in 10 years), but also "practical and effective." Because it "strengthens China's scientific and technological sovereignty on a basis beneficial to Russia." At the same time, Russia is regarded by the Chinese as "a logistical rear, important for the Chinese movement forward."
The prospect of the yuanization of the global financial system, widely covered by the world mass media, is conditionally in second place. With a characteristic caveat: "With a departure from the dollar, but so far without abandoning it." Immediately after the visit, the topic of the common currency of the SCO and BRICS countries was thrown into the world media. Such a "combination" may have been carried out for the first time at the political level and is called "forced realism".
The next topic is a follow-up to the previous ones: "The two leaders signed 14 agreements focused mainly on economic cooperation." At the same time, "the eight main areas of cooperation are designed to ensure China's energy security against the background of the potential threat of an American naval blockade."
The figures are given. Russia's trade turnover with China increased by 43% over the year, China's trade turnover with the United States increased by 17%. A scrupulous explanation is given of what exactly and to what extent Russia supplies to China – from metal products and wood (by the way, only 3.2% of our exports) to precious metals and mineral fertilizers. 100 thousand Chinese working in Russia are mentioned. And also – China's readiness to meet Russian needs for cars by 50%. For example, in taxi cars.
CHINESE LAYOUTSThe main thing, it seems, is this: Russia has been asked to "move away from a strategic orientation towards Europe."
Thereby shifting the global paradigm: from the situation of "Chimerica (that is, China and the USA) against Eurossia" (that is, Europe and Russia) to the situation of "Chirossia against Euromerica".
By the way, international military issues are mentioned in the Chinese press rather in passing: "The task is to return nuclear weapons to national territories." About the rest – without details.
Ukraine is mentioned in passing. With a hint of her dubious independence. The material of the main Chinese English-language edition of Global Times says: "The crisis in Ukraine ... concerns not only China and Russia, but also the whole world. China is confident that it will help the conflicting parties... resume peace talks."
A number of Chinese media predict Beijing's mediation role without much detail. But they serve it contextually: "Ukraine is a "separatist" part of a historical country used by the West." Sometimes neat analogies are given with China's own territories – Xinjiang and Tibet.
WESTERN CONCLUSIONSThe summary assessment of President Xi's visit to Moscow in the Western media reads as follows: "The most decisive demonstration of Beijing's support for Russia after the invasion of Ukraine."
Against this background, the "exposure" of the "Huawei Corporation's control" of the Chinese Communist Party looks like petty revenge.
However, in the weeks following the visit, many Chinese media began to emphasize: "Rapprochement with Russia does not mean giving up the advantages gained over decades of cooperation with the whole world."
In the West, this was considered a "half step back". With a general interpretation of such a plan: the Chinese insist on the dilution (or even a possible clash) of global politics and the global economy. The Chinese did not argue. But then they reminded me about Taiwan.
John Kirby, a representative of the US National Security Council, was one of the first to react to the visit: "These two countries are against it... The rules-based order that the United States and many of our allies created after World War II. They would like to globally rewrite the rules of the game." And the New York Times directly accused Beijing of "attacking NATO."
MILITARY COMPLEMENTARITYThe meeting of the defense ministers of Russia and China in the West, which followed the summit of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, was presented in line with the same "rapprochement of the opponents of the free world."
With the mention of "financing of Russian aggression", drone deliveries and "violation of sanctions obligations" (whose and to whom?). And all this – with undisguised signs of irritation and wounded pride.
The Chinese media, on the contrary, showed more restraint. Many of them stressed: "We are talking about military-political coordination without the formation of a military bloc." However, the repeatedly mentioned "two three-day visits" (by the President of the People's Republic of China and the Minister of War) speak for themselves. As well as the phlegmatic statement of the simultaneous "Russian-Chinese patrol" (it is called "complementary" – buchong hezo). Including those conducted by "planes with nuclear weapons". And also "the first participation of a Chinese aircraft carrier in exercises near Taiwan" (with hints of continuation – with the participation of Russia).
"CARRIERS OF FOREIGN CULTURE"Let's summarize the preliminary result.
By word of mouth, the Chinese give priority to responding to the political and economic challenge of the United States and its allies, without pedaling especially the military factor. However, the issue of Taiwan is fundamental for them.
Many speculations on the topic of Beijing's rapprochement with Moscow are based on the "cocky" question: "What can be common between Russians and Chinese? They don't know each other and will suspect each other of scheming at every step."
It is characteristic that immediately after the visit of the Chinese leader, arguments about the short-term nature of any rapprochement with "carriers of an alien culture" were noticed in the Western and Japanese English-language press. Sometimes it seems that not only Western, but also our ideas about the Chinese are borrowed from a thirty-second scene from the ballet "The Nutcracker". But what about the centuries of European wars? With an uncontested cultural, historical and religious similarity?
And on the topic "Russian and Chinese are brothers forever", you can remember a lot. Including the funny. For example, Russian pioneers, meeting with Chinese neighbors, inquired: "What is it called?" In response, they heard "Budun", that is, "I don't understand". So the Far Eastern mountains and rivers, recorded as "Budun" (Pudong), have not yet been erased from geographical maps and memory. However, such incidents have also happened on other borders.
SHARED PASTI recall the emotional component of many meetings with the Chinese – primarily military personnel.
The interlocutors, with any degree of diplomacy, made it clear: Russia is closer to America to them. And not only because of Taiwan. Due to genetic memory originating in the 1930s and 1950s. But the 1960s-1980s, memorable among other things by the tragic events on the border of China and the USSR, prefer to bypass. They are more often looking for painful analogies in the difficult past of our countries. Here's a conversation from the 1990s:
"Translator, what is now diagonally from the Kiss Bridge in St. Petersburg? Isn't it the Institute of Aircraft Engineering? – Comrade President of the Academy of Sciences, as far as I know, it's still the same institute. And why are you asking about this? – Young man, in the 50s I studied Russian for two years. Then I studied at this institute for five years. Then – three more years at the Zhukovsky Academy. And in the 60s, he served 10 years for communication with Soviet revisionists."
By the way, the first visit to St. Petersburg of the Chinese military attache in Moscow, General Ning, was remembered for the fact that the front entrance to the Stock Exchange was opened especially for him – at that time the Naval Museum.
Of course, this is all history. In many ways, they are common to us. And it connects more closely than the Eurasian turn. With 14 agreements in eight directions...
I will cite one more episode – from the Harbin chronicle of the same 1990s. The delegation that visited (perhaps for the first time since the 1940s) this once Russian-Chinese city did not find any compatriots in it. There are several reasons for this – not only the flight of the White Guards who lived there with the Japanese and through Shanghai, but also the deportation to the Soviet Union of all those counted among them. And the last Russians in Harbin were crushed by the skating rink of the Chinese "cultural revolution". It seemed that everything Russian there was burned out and forgotten forever.
...An elderly Chinese woman was waiting for Russian guests at the locked, but not destroyed, Orthodox St. Sophia Cathedral, clearly wanting to say something kind. Her phrase seemed to me incoherent, literally translated like a clamor: "All your aunts." Having received a condescending nod and therefore losing hope of understanding, she desperately handed the translator a piece of paper with 12 poorly connected hieroglyphs: "dou-shi-ni-da-niang, da-wa-tzu-ge-ni-se-li."
Pierced to tears: It's "Goodbye, until Sunday"! With such words, the Russian residents of Harbin said goodbye after Sunday prayers.
So, something connects us "from the inside"... "Until Sunday!"
Boris PodoprigoraBoris Alexandrovich Podoprigora is a retired colonel, military political scientist, orientalist.
