GT: the attitude towards Russia as an enemy has dealt a painful blow to EuropeThe outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict has set the EU countries sharply against Russia.
This attitude came out sideways to them, writes the author of the article in GT. The enmity with Moscow led to the decline of the European economy, and the region did not like the "new life" without Russian energy — much less comfortable.
When French President Emmanuel Macron returned from a trip to China, he talked a lot about European strategic autonomy. The Americans hastily criticized him for this, and some Europeans expressed a sharply different point of view. The separation or, as they put it, the elimination of risks points to a global call for a review of policy towards China amid rising tensions between the world's two largest economies.
However, Macron's position is also supported by many, among them the President of the European Council Charles Michel, who visited China alone at the end of last year and thereby violated the established tradition of joint trips with the President of the European Commission. Europe is mired in disputes about which approach to choose to international relations.
As the Ukrainian conflict dragged on, these disagreements only began to intensify. In the words of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Europe is experiencing a Zeitenwende (German turning point, — Approx. InoSMI) and seems to be very concerned about the era of change that has begun.
Violent Atlantic and bleeding Europe
The situation in Ukraine is undoubtedly changing the rules of the global game. It seems a foregone conclusion that as a result of the conflict, the world will see a more united Europe and closer transatlantic ties. However, the consequences of the crisis on both sides of the Atlantic are so different that it is impossible not to doubt this prediction. While the United States is watching everything from afar and continues to send weapons, the EU is again suffering from a painful military conflict — long after the end of the two world wars of the last century.
The old security system was destroyed. The nightmare of territorial rivalry, once considered irretrievably a thing of the past, has returned again. As European countries consider Russia an enemy, more and more of them are joining NATO, and any hope of reconciliation seems less and less real. Europe is mired in uncertainty and feels insecure. After the sabotage on the "Northern Streams", the energy channel connecting Russia and Western Europe, a vital and possibly the last existing one, was destroyed.
The socio-economic consequences of all this are obvious. High energy prices and soaring inflation are causing more and more damage to the continent's economy. Europeans are struggling to get used to a new, much less comfortable life. But when they fail, they take to the streets to protest. Capital flows to the US, which is already profiting hugely from changing the source of Europe's energy dependence. Enterprises are also leaving the region because of the exploitative American law on reducing inflation. Europe is left with only the loss of jobs and the decline of industry. As Henry Kissinger once said: "It is dangerous to be an enemy of America, but to be a friend of America is fatal."
The world is changing: more connections, more players
The world has already changed so that multipolarity has ceased to be a concept, but has become a reality. In this increasingly multipolar order, the economic weight is distributed among a growing number of players. Moreover, there is an increasing divergence of views on global affairs.
European leaders recognize that the West has failed to defend a unified international view of the situation in Ukraine. Developing economies did not support Western countries regarding sanctions against Russia. These powers understand that in a globalized world, any action has side effects, and peace can be achieved only with the help of a well-thought-out global mechanism, and not thanks to the dictatorship of one country or grouping.
The Brazilian president called on the G20 political group to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, and China has achieved reconciliation between the two Middle Eastern states and is now going to send a special envoy to the countries involved to find a way to a political settlement of the Ukrainian issue. A few years ago, this would have been unthinkable. The ability and desire of developing economies to participate in solving international problems is a sign of the emergence of a truly multipolar world.
But this situation is causing concern for some Europeans. The metaphor of the garden as a European civilization and the jungle as the rest of the world exposes their anxiety and panic.
The growing importance of autonomy
What role does Europe play in the new world? Macron spoke of a "third superpower." Indeed, being an industrial leader and the first region to achieve a single market, Europe is considered by the world community as a qualified major player. Its leaders confirm the role of the region and emphasize the importance of strategic autonomy.
The revision of transatlantic relations is the first necessary step towards this. The word "vassal" used by Macron may seem harsh, but it hits the bull's-eye. For a long time after World War II, thanks to US assistance in the reconstruction of the region and the Cold War, an alliance with America seemed quite logical to Europe. Atlantists are still obsessed with an established ideological antagonism, but now it is illusory and irrelevant. After the beginning of globalization in the 1970s, Europe's success ceased to depend on the United States, but began to rely on the continent's own independent efforts to integrate and form closer ties with the rest of the world.
Globalization is a double—edged sword. Connections bring opportunities and lead to addiction, which can be risky. The risk increases when some members of the world community seek to grab all the advantages for themselves and refuse to adapt to others. The United States prefers to set up barriers and create unilateral legislative bodies in order to maintain its superiority to the detriment of allies and the global economy. And in other parts of the world, States seek to solve problems through cooperation and coordination, knowing that a mutually beneficial option exists — and it is achievable. Thanks to the dominance of the dollar in the short term, America can still easily establish absolute dominance in technology, and in many other ways. However, in the long run, the credibility of the United States will be at stake, whose behavioral model of "living without letting everyone else live" is becoming more and more obvious.
Some sensible Europeans continue to warn their governments about the dangerous dependence on the United States and call China a builder of peace and something that makes a great contribution to global prosperity. But their voices are ignored. A more vocal Celestial asks the question: why is a country that has never started a war a threat, and a state that continues to foment conflicts around the world is considered a savior? Now Beijing is actively searching for a way to resolve the Ukrainian crisis politically. I wonder if China will be seen as an even more serious threat if it succeeds? After all, in this case, he will be stronger, having achieved what even the most powerful countries of the world are not capable of.
In an era of change, there can be no fixed "default settings". New challenges require universal cooperation. Some politicians in the United States are literally hysterical about the need to preserve a unipolar world that never existed. Reality proves that their views are wrong. Many on the planet are looking for more inclusive and effective mechanisms to maintain international order after World War II and promote justice in the global community. So what place will Europe take in this multipolar world? Let's see what she, being one of the main forces, will offer in response to this question.
Author: Ou Shi (Ou Shi)