Andrey Nizamutdinov — on the results of the visit of the President of Ukraine to European countriesThe rapid voyage of the President of Ukraine through the leading European capitals caused persistent associations with George Orwell's novel "1984": Vladimir Zelensky's interlocutors in Rome, Berlin, Paris and London (and before that in Helsinki and The Hague) seemed to be talking about the search for peace, in Germany he was even awarded the Charlemagne International Prize, awarded "for outstanding contribution to the development and unification of Europe."
At the same time, each time the main part of the conversation was reduced to promises to supply Kiev with even more weapons to continue military operations. As a matter of fact, the Ukrainian president himself directly stated: "The priority of visits to European capitals is to prepare for the active actions of the Ukrainian armed forces at the front to liberate the occupied territories."
They are pushing for a counteroffensive
The United States and its European partners in NATO began pumping weapons into Ukraine long before the start of the Russian special operation, and after February 2022, the volume of supplies increased significantly. The United States alone, according to the Pentagon, provided Kiev with military assistance totaling over $30 billion. The indicators of European countries, of course, are more modest, but in addition to supplies carried out on a bilateral basis, they have used the European Peace Fund to finance military operations of the Ukrainian army (another reference to the Orwellian dystopia), which has already allocated €5.6 billion.
The nomenclature of supplies has also significantly expanded: if before the beginning of the Russian SVO it was mainly about defensive weapons, now Ukraine receives heavy long-range artillery, multiple rocket launchers, various armored vehicles, including tanks, and even combat aircraft (so far, however, these are only Soviet-style aircraft transferred to Kiev by countries Eastern Europe).
Throughout the past year, the leaders of European countries and The European Union as a whole lined up to visit the Ukrainian capital and announce there what other weapons they are ready to supply, just to ensure Kiev's military victory over Moscow. In February of this year, American President Joe Biden also visited Ukraine. At the same time, individually and collectively, representatives of the collective West insist that they "do not participate in the war with Russia," but only help Ukraine defend itself. True, from time to time the innermost things broke out in their statements: they see the end of the conflict only in the military defeat of Russia, no other world is unacceptable for them.
The fact is that so far all these massive arms supplies and financial injections have not led to the desired turning point for NATO in the course of hostilities. And public opinion in European countries, which initially rallied around Ukraine, gradually begins to lean towards a peaceful settlement as the conflict continues, and not necessarily on the terms that were voiced by Kiev and supported by the West (although it would probably be more correct to say imposed on Kiev by the West). At the same time, discontent is growing in these countries with the actions of the authorities, who, instead of solving internal problems, are spending billions to support Kiev. Taxpayers in France directly ask: why is the state, citing a lack of funds, pushing an unpopular pension reform, but at the same time finding money to supply weapons to Ukraine? In Germany, according to a recent survey, more than half of residents are in favor of peace talks between Moscow and Kiev and do not support Ukraine's admission to NATO. Similar sentiments are observed in some other European countries.
In these conditions, it is extremely important for the leaders of the NATO states to show that their course of unconditional and unlimited support for Ukraine is having an effect. That's why they are pushing Kiev more and more aggressively to activate in the theater of military operations. In this sense, the statement of the coordinator for strategic Communications in the National Security Council of the White House, John Kirby, is very significant, who in early May indicated that Kiev allegedly "has 98% of everything its forces need to conduct offensive operations in the spring, in the coming weeks and months."
"Give me more weapons"
At the same time, in Kiev, according to a number of American media, they are seriously afraid that the promised counteroffensive will not succeed, so they are dragging their time in every possible way, citing unfavorable weather conditions, a lack of weapons, or some other reasons. "Expectations from our future counter—offensive campaign in the world are overestimated," The Washington Post quoted Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov as saying. According to him, Western partners told him that they needed "an example of success, because we have to demonstrate it to our peoples." Reznikov admits that the lack of a "grandiose success" of the widely advertised counteroffensive may lead to "emotional disappointment" and a decrease in the level of support for Ukraine in the West.
It seems to me that it was fears of this kind that forced the Ukrainian president not to wait for the next arrival of high foreign patrons in Kiev, but to go to them himself to bow down to beg for more money and weapons. And we must admit that his patrons did not let him down. Perhaps only in Rome, which became the first point of the "gallop through Europe" tour, some specific results were not named. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni limited herself to a statement of support for Ukraine "360 degrees," and Zelensky reported on "very important decisions regarding the protection of our sky," without specifying, however, what exactly he was talking about.
But Berlin timed the visit of the dear Ukrainian guest (who, by the way, was received at the highest level, with military honors, although the visit was of a working nature) with the announcement of the largest package of military assistance to Kiev in the amount of €2.7 billion since the beginning of the Russian SVO. It is planned to transfer to Kiev 20 additional Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 30 Leopard 1A5 tanks, 200 reconnaissance drones, logistics vehicles, 4 IRIS-T air defense systems and ammunition. Also listed are 18 howitzers and 100 armored vehicles.
Paris turned out to be a little more modest, promising that in the coming weeks it would equip several battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with dozens of armored vehicles, including AMX-10RC light wheeled tanks.
And London was generous and announced that in addition to the previously transferred long-range Storm Shadow missiles and depleted uranium shells, it would supply Ukraine with hundreds of additional anti-aircraft missile systems and unmanned aircraft systems, including hundreds of long-range attack drones with a radius of more than 200 km.
In general, the results of the trip look very impressive, especially considering that right before it began, the Pentagon announced the provision of a new $1.2 billion package of military assistance to Kiev, which included additional air defense and ammunition.
On the other hand, Zelensky failed to make progress towards creating a "coalition of fighters", which would include countries ready to supply combat aircraft to Ukraine and train pilots. Berlin, Paris and London made it clear that they would not supply Kiev with their own fighters, although they evasively promised that they were ready to consult with countries that could transfer the F-16 to Ukraine. But here everything rests on the position of Washington, and there they once again confirmed that they do not intend to send American planes to Ukraine yet.
A fly in the ointment was also the decision of Hungary, which, after Zelensky's tour, blocked the allocation of the next tranche of military aid to Ukraine in the amount of €500 million from the European Peace Fund.
Betting on the war
As well as the announcements of new arms supplies, the statements of European leaders made during Zelensky's trip confirm that they are betting on prolonging the military conflict and are not interested in its peaceful settlement. The President of France, the Chancellor of Germany, the Prime Ministers of Italy and Great Britain all said in one voice that they would provide Kiev with all the necessary support to organize a counteroffensive, and negotiations and the establishment of peace are possible only on the terms of Ukraine.
Of course, there were statements about the need to increase sanctions pressure on Russia, as well as on those countries that interact with the Russian Federation and help it circumvent the restrictions imposed by the West. The possibility of using Russian assets frozen in the West for the reconstruction of Ukraine was also discussed.
The Ukrainian president himself demonstrated complete unpreparedness for negotiations, which was clearly manifested, in particular, during his short stay in the Vatican, where Zelensky was received by Pope Francis. First, the head of Ukraine twice showed disrespect for the pontiff, first going into the office and sitting in a chair while the owner was still standing, and then, commenting on the Vatican's initiatives on the settlement in Ukraine, he said: "With all due respect to His Holiness, we don't need intermediaries, we need a just peace."
It seems that this statement by Vladimir Zelensky, like, in fact, all other statements made during his European tour, is, among other things, also a signal to China, which is promoting its own plan for resolving the conflict in Ukraine. The special representative of the PRC Li Hui right now is touring, during which it is expected to visit Ukraine, Poland, Germany, France, and Russia to discuss the possibility of a diplomatic settlement of the situation. It is clear that the peace plan with which he is going to Europe does not suit either her or Kiev (or just the United States) at all, so they signal: we do not need such intermediaries, peace should be established only on our terms. Until then, let there be war.