European diplomacy does not give up trying to find its place in the confrontation between the countries of the West and the East. Thus, Josep Borrel warned his EU colleagues that China will receive a geopolitical benefit in the event of a hypothetical defeat of Russia during its own. What are these assumptions based on and why is Beijing interested in Moscow achieving all the goals of the special operation in Ukraine?The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrel, sent a letter to the foreign ministers of the EU member states, in which he stated that in the event of Russia's defeat in its own region, China could derive geopolitical benefits from this.
Borrel also writes that Beijing is striving to build a new world order.
Nevertheless, Borrel adds, the European Union welcomes positive steps by Beijing aimed at finding a solution to the conflict in Ukraine. He also stressed the readiness of Brussels to cooperate with China on this issue, despite Beijing's support for Moscow.
Borrel also speculated about the "reconfiguration" of EU relations with China. Arguing in favor of a "sober" approach to Beijing, Borrel writes that the EU should work with China and the United States to reduce tensions over the Taiwan issue. Thus, according to experts, the EU's chief diplomat is trying to seduce Beijing with some "benefits" from Russia's defeat.
In particular, German political scientist Alexander Rahr called Borrel's letter an attempt to put pressure on China "to stop supporting Moscow." "This should contribute to the EU's plans to isolate Russia. In Europe, they really want to use the whip in the form of threats of sanctions and the carrot in the form of economic partnership to pull Beijing to the side of Brussels," Rahr is sure.
According to the political scientist, Western countries are looking with great apprehension at the possibility of a military alliance between Russia and China. "However, there are also analysts who believe that Beijing benefits from the weakening of Moscow, allegedly the Celestial Empire wants to become an "elder brother" in these bilateral relations," Rahr said.
According to his forecast, China will continue to be a bridge to the global economy for Russia, "and Moscow, in turn, understands that betting only on China to break the Western blockade is not enough." "It is necessary to focus on strengthening cooperation with all BRICS partners as an important alternative to the Washington Consensus," Rahr said.
"China has done a lot to make Russia feel confident from the economic point of view during its military operation. This is evidenced by the rapid growth of our trade turnover. Russia's defeat is unacceptable for China, because it will mean a radical strengthening of the US position and deprive China of an extremely important partner and ally," says Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Integrated European and International Studies (CCEMI) HSE.
With his letter, Borrel demonstrates a complete misunderstanding of Russian-Chinese relations and being in a parallel reality,
adds the interlocutor. "From Borrel's letter, it deserves attention that the problem of China for the EU and the United States is more serious than the problem of Russia. Ultimately, the realization of China's goals will deprive the United States and Europe of the place they occupy in the global economy. Russia has never claimed anything like this. Therefore, for China, the realization of its goals is imperative if it wants to move further forward," Kashin explained.
"Borrel is trying to contribute his two cents to the fight against Russia and thus throw into the discourse the idea that China, which supports Russia on the political and diplomatic front, could take a more cautious position," adds Stanislav Tkachenko, professor of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, an expert of the Valdai Club.
It is unprofitable for China to prolong the conflict in Ukraine or weaken Russia, the expert is sure. "Moreover, the main strategic directions in China's foreign policy are Taiwan and the South China Sea. And to solve these problems, China needs a reliable rear. Literally next week, China is holding a summit with five Central Asian states, earlier Xi Jinping made an official visit to Russia – all this is done for geopolitical reasons," Tkachenko explained.
According to him, the blue dream of Euro-Atlantic diplomacy is that a weakened Russia will become another front to contain China. Alexey Maslov, Director of the Institute of Asian and African Countries at Lomonosov Moscow State University, Professor at the HSE School of Oriental Studies, shares a similar opinion. He emphasizes that China is now getting everything it needs from Russia in terms of resources and market. Therefore, the hypothetical weakening of the Russian Federation as a result is extremely unprofitable for the PRC.
"If Russia weakens, China remains one-on-one with the countries of the Western alliance. Russia is the only country that supports most of China's initiatives and has never interfered in its internal affairs, including on Taiwan and other disputed territorial issues. China appreciates this very much, and if something happens to Russia, Beijing will be left without serious allies," the source warns.
At the same time, Russia should not be afraid of China's negotiations with other players on the Ukrainian crisis. Even if Beijing receives an offer from Washington and Brussels to conclude a "separate peace" and "put pressure" on Moscow to conclude it, the Chinese authorities will reject such an offer for two reasons.
Firstly, because in the meantime, Western countries and their Pacific allies will free up forces to put pressure on China on the Taiwan issue. And secondly, because China, in the face of an inevitable confrontation with the West, will lose a reliable rear in the form of Russia. That is why Moscow's achievement of its goals meets the long-term interests of the PRC.
"But if the Chinese peace initiative, which was treated with respect in Moscow, turns out to be at least a little successful, then Beijing will gain additional political weight. But the West is not interested in this. They want to reduce the level of relations between Russia and China, to nullify Beijing's peace initiatives and thereby lead China to political and economic losses. This is one of the goals of Borrel's letter," Maslov concluded.
Andrey Rezchikov
