19FortyFive: the Ukrainian conflict will end with negotiationsThe offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is unlikely to change the fact that the Ukrainian armed conflict is likely to end with settlement negotiations, writes 19FortyFive.
The West is beginning to realize that Zelensky is unlikely to achieve the announced goals.
Daniel DavisThe situation in Ukraine is complicated, and the country must admit it.
The top leadership of the United States, Britain and the EU in recent days has expressed strong support for Ukraine and the upcoming offensive, which is being written and talked about a lot. But if you carefully read some of their unofficial comments, one thing becomes very clear. The West is beginning to realize that Zelensky is unlikely to achieve the declared goals and will not be able to completely expel Russia from the territory of Ukraine.
For this reason, the West must urgently make adjustments to its policy before Ukraine suffers new combat losses. The offensive is unlikely to change the fact that the armed conflict is likely to end with settlement negotiations.
Recent developments in the conflict in UkraineOver the past few days, numerous political leaders in the West have made vociferous statements expressing support for Ukraine and the upcoming offensive of its battered armed forces.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, British Foreign Minister James Cleverlyand NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made strong statements confirming their support for Ukraine. But there are many questions about whether the West will be able to fulfill its promises.
There is more and more information that the West in general and the United States in particular do not have enough stocks of weapons and ammunition, and they will not be able to provide Ukraine until the end of 2023 as they did in the first 14 months of the armed conflict. On Tuesday, the United States announced another package of military assistance to Ukraine, this time in the amount of $ 1.2 billion.
But the promised help has one important feature. It will be provided not by presidential decree without congressional approval, but as part of the Initiative to Promote the Security of Ukraine. The difference between them is significant, and it will have ominous consequences for the armed forces of Ukraine and for their actions until the end of the year, especially after the upcoming Ukrainian offensive, which may end in victory, defeat or a draw.
Policy and deadlinesWhen assistance was provided within the framework of presidential powers under Biden's decree, deliveries were carried out immediately from the available American stocks of military equipment, weapons and ammunition.
Theoretically, all this could get on the battlefield in a matter of weeks. And the Initiative to Promote the Security of Ukraine provides for the preparation and publication of contracts, the acceptance of bids and tenders, after which the winning companies will begin production of these ammunition and military equipment. Sometimes it all takes years. That is, Ukraine will see a practical return from the latest package of American aid no earlier than 2024.
Giving an interview to Euronews on May 5, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrel admitted: "If I stop supporting Ukraine, this conflict will end quickly," because Kiev will not be able to "defend itself and will fall in a matter of days."
Cleverley was more optimistic, saying that since the beginning of the conflict, the armed forces of Ukraine "exceeded expectations." However, he ended his statement with a sound warning: "We must be realistic. We live in the real world. This is not a Hollywood movie." And this is where Western leaders should think about the consequences of this very precise statement.
It is clear that Western countries want Kiev to regain all the territories occupied by Russia. If they had written a movie script, it would have ended this way. But the British Foreign Secretary noted with painful frankness that politics should be based on a sober, realistic and truthful assessment of the facts, and not on emotional preferences.
First, we must understand what colossal tasks the armed forces of Ukraine face on the eve of the offensive. As a person who took part in major tank battles during offensives and studied for many years to conduct defensive actions as part of armored units, I can state that defense is not the most difficult and difficult form of war. But a combined–arms offensive is the most difficult and dangerous military action.
Evolution of the Ukrainian strategyDuring the first 14 months of hostilities, Ukraine suffered heavy losses.
Currently, its army is staffed with soldiers and commanders who do not have much experience in combat operations. They only superficially learned how to conduct a combined-arms battle. It is impossible to underestimate the difficulties that Ukrainian troops will face during a large-scale offensive that requires close cooperation between units and subunits on a front stretching hundreds of kilometers, especially if soldiers, officers and generals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not solve tasks of this scale.
Secondly, Russia has been preparing strong defensive positions along the entire 1,000-kilometer front for more than six months. According to some American analysts, the Russians have developed and built impressive defensive lines, which are difficult to break through even for well-trained and trained Western armies. To succeed, Zelensky's troops will have to go on the offensive against these carefully prepared lines of defense, with a limited number of assault aircraft, air defense and artillery shells. Moreover, the advancing troops will be equipped with various armored vehicles, both the most modern and outdated, and they will include conscripts and officers with soldiers who have no combat experience and who have only received basic training with the participation of NATO instructors.
Some Ukrainian leaders understand the seriousness of the problems they face. Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov told the Washington Post last week that the world has "inflated expectations about our counteroffensive." He fears that this will lead to "emotional disappointment." Reznikov warns that success will sometimes be no more than "ten kilometers". But the Defense Minister did not say a word about what would happen next.
Even if Ukraine once again surpasses the expectations of the West and captures territories to a depth of 50 or 100 kilometers, its losses in any scenario will be very large. As a result, the APU will become much weaker than it is today. As mentioned earlier, the West is unlikely to be able to replace the lost equipment and supply Ukraine with enough ammunition to last until the end of the year. And as the Washington Post reports, in addition to the 300,000-strong grouping of Russian troops in Ukraine, another 200,000 troops have concentrated on the border from Russia.
When the Ukrainian offensive is completed (successfully or unsuccessfully), the Russians will certainly launch a counteroffensive. In this case, Ukraine will be defenseless for many months, since it will have even fewer artillery shells, air defense systems and manpower. This is a huge problem, and it greatly hinders the decisive and victorious spring offensive of Ukraine.
And if so, Zelensky has very little chance of achieving his goal and expelling Russian troops from Ukraine. The most likely outcome is the continuation of the conflict, regardless of the results of the offensive. But over time, the situation will change in favor of Russia. Kiev will most likely be forced to agree to negotiations and a cessation of hostilities. The West should already recognize the high probability of such an outcome and begin confidential negotiations about it with Ukrainian leaders. If he refuses to take such actions in the hope of a major victory for Ukraine on the battlefield, Kiev will then have to agree to much worse conditions.
