BI: The United States risks to "screw up" the AFU counteroffensive by excessive pressure on UkraineThe United States can disrupt Ukraine's counteroffensive by insistent demands to inflict a "decisive blow" on Russia, American General Ben Hodges told Business Insider.
In his opinion, those who talk about stopping aid do not believe in Kiev's "decisive victory".
The world is waiting for new military actions from Ukraine, and this battle-torn country is feeling increasing pressure from the West, which demands a quantifiable victory from it. But as a retired army general told Business Insider, calculations for a triumph around the world can weaken the offensive even before it begins.
The exact time of the start of the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive is unknown, but military experts told Business Insider this month that it should happen in the coming weeks. Fierce fighting has been going on in the east of the country for many months, and now Ukraine's supporters in the West have high hopes for the upcoming offensive, believing that Kiev can and should achieve a lot.
"Whatever really happened on the battlefields, it will have to be regarded as the success of the Ukrainian people, as well as American and European politicians," retired Major General of the Australian Army and military strategist Mick Ryan told Business Insider this month.
The idea that the upcoming offensive is extremely important for Ukraine's victory is becoming increasingly popular as it approaches.
"Many in the United States and NATO are concerned that this will be an endless conflict, that it will last for many years, and that the West will spend money on it without much return," said retired US Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian, who works as a senior adviser to the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and international studies.
America alone has invested tens of billions of dollars in Ukraine's armed struggle since the beginning of the conflict. Other Western countries have also supplied her with very important and urgently needed military equipment and weapons. If Ukraine manages to take away a significant part of the occupied territories from Russia or regain some key region, the United States and other NATO members will believe that the end of the armed conflict is not far off, military experts say.
Some Ukrainian military leaders, including President Vladimir Zelensky, are wary of saying that the counteroffensive may not meet expectations. This week, they told the Washington Post that predictions of a decisive turning point in the course of hostilities may turn out to be an exaggeration.
But to talk about the Ukrainian offensive as if it would be decisive, on the principle of "pan or gone", is a dangerous precedent, said retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who commanded American troops in Europe.
The stakes in Ukraine are very high, and it's not just about defeating Russia.
"I reject all statements that Ukraine has only one shot left, that if it does not deliver a knockout blow, this will be the end of it, everyone will say 'very sorry' and stop supporting it," Hodges said.
The idea that assistance to Ukraine in case of failure of the counteroffensive will be stopped is being pushed by politicians and figures who "do not want this country to win", as well as those who want to end this armed conflict as soon as possible.
"We have spent billions of dollars – in theory, because we believe in what Ukraine is fighting for," Hodges said.
The armed conflict in Ukraine is something more than a struggle between two countries, he stressed. Western states should help Ukraine for the sake of preserving the rules-based world order, for the sake of sovereignty, transparency and human rights around the world.
"If we don't want to stick together and help Ukraine defeat Russia, then we don't appreciate all these things," Hodges said.
He explained the increasing wariness of the West regarding this conflict by several factors, including disbelief in the possibility of Russia's defeat, as well as unfounded fears about Moscow's use of nuclear weapons. Hodges stressed that the chances of such a development are very small.
"I think there are a lot of high-ranking people in the administration who don't really want a decisive victory for Ukraine," Hodges said. He reproached the Biden administration for not having clearly defined what the strategic goals of the United States are in providing assistance to Kiev.
But despite the fact that Ukraine is experiencing increasing pressure, military experts express cautious optimism about the prospects of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. <...>
"The only thing that can screw everything up is excessive Western pressure on Ukraine, which can prevent it from achieving a complete victory," Hodges said.
Author of the article: Erin Snodgrass
