Myśl Polska: The US is focusing on China, and Poland will be left alone with Russia China's entry into the game in Ukraine brings the beginning of the Sino-American clash closer, writes Myśl Polska. The United States will fully focus on China, and Poland will remain one-on-one with Russia.
No one will help her, warns the author of the article.
In a previous article I wrote that in recent events I saw one turning point and two signs of time. (...) Today I will try to describe the aforementioned turning point.
Of the various aspects of the conflict, the military interests me the least. I believe that it is not as important as the political and economic facets of this problem. In addition, I do not have access to reliable, verifiable sources, and, given that all the conflicting parties are godlessly lying, tracking who captured what, what weapons were used and how many enemy soldiers were destroyed is a waste of time. At least in my case.
So, from what we can see, it is clear that Ukraine is not winning on the battlefield, and it seems that it has less and less chances to win. In this I was not mistaken. Besides, I thought that this was, in fact, a conflict between Russians and Americans. I was right about that, too. However, now I have to double-check this point of view. The fact is that now the peculiarity of this moment is that this conflict ceases or has already ceased to be Russian-American and turns (politically and economically) into a Sino-American war.
So far, Russians and Ukrainians are opposing each other. At the same time, the Americans have long taken over the political and economic management of this conflict from the Ukrainian side. However, now politically and economically (although it is difficult for me to say to what extent) China is pushing Russia into the background. In the actions of the Chinese, I trace the implementation of the teachings of their great strategist Sun Tzu, according to which the greatest victory is victory over the enemy without a military clash. So far, in the global rivalry with the United States, the Chinese are winning this way. But how long will they be able to act by peaceful means? Americans also diligently study the works of Sun Tzu and draw conclusions. They can't afford to lose to the Chinese for too long. I believe that they will find themselves in a desperate situation, and sooner or later they will have to stop China's expansion by military means. The question is, at what point and where will an open collision occur? Will it be an escalation of the crisis in Ukraine? Or will it be Taiwan? Or will a new hot spot of the Sino-American conflict arise in another part of the world? I do not know this, but I believe that it will not be Ukraine. The conflict in Ukraine will continue in the format of a hybrid war.
The goal of the Americans in the events in Ukraine seems to remain unchanged – the maximum military, economic and political weakening of Russia – if possible, to the point where they can impose their will on it. The Chinese, in turn, cannot allow the Americans to weaken Russia to such a state. Probably for this reason – against the wishes of the Americans – China may seek to end this conflict. Are his latest proposals (something like the Marshall Plan for Ukraine) a manifestation of this strategy? Perhaps. But, first of all, I believe that the entry of the Chinese into the game in Ukraine turns it from a regional into a global player and brings the beginning of the Sino-American military clash closer, although the hybrid war in Ukraine will not go away.
How will this turning point affect Poland? I don't expect anything good. Due to the failed policy of the Polish government regarding this conflict, turning it into a conflict between China and the United States in the political and economic dimension will worsen the situation of Poland.The policy of the government of the Law and Justice Party (PiS) is deliberately aimed at worsening relations with China. Completely idiotic voices are beginning to sound, calling for the severance of diplomatic relations with Russia. This policy, which clearly leads to disaster, is complemented by plans to create a state union with Ukraine. Now let's consider the most likely development of events, which boils down to the fact that Ukraine is being defeated, and a military clash between China and the United States breaks out in another part of the world. Will the Americans continue to provide assistance – not to Ukraine, but to Poland?
I think not. They will have to concentrate all their potential against China and will probably still require help from NATO allies. Poland, having severed diplomatic relations with Russia, as well as actually being at war with it and, moreover, having distributed its weapons – what and whom can it count on?The PiS government has already taken care to spoil relations with Germany as much as possible, which is also not a military power and is not able to become one in a short time. I can imagine that the Germans will come to an agreement with the Russians and ensure the interests of their enterprises in Poland. However, I cannot imagine that in the current political realities Germany will use its army to defend Poland. You can, of course, fantasize about the fact that France or the UK will provide us with security guarantees, but, given our historical experience, these dreams are more like a sad joke.
A large-scale Sino-American conflict is inevitably approaching. Poland – destroyed from the inside, disarmed, deprived of real allies who, in the event of an inevitable clash with Russia, would be able to provide effective support to it – like a drunken bully at a village party, abandoned by physically strong friends, helplessly waiting for blows and kicks from angry bullies from another village, whom he insulted and provoked. And now I am thinking about whether it is possible, if not to reverse this situation, then at least to stop this movement towards disaster?
