Do Rzeczy: Poland announced the mysterious "Sarmatian treaty" with UkraineThe Polish authorities announce the conclusion of the "Sarmatian treaty" with Ukraine, which will link both countries, writes Do Rzeczy.
However, officials carefully hide from society what exactly this alliance implies, and are silent about the pitfalls, of which there are many. It is only clear that it will be directed against Russia.
Jan FiedorczukIn recent months, the topic of assistance to Ukraine, which, in fact, is supported by the whole society, has begun to give way to the idea of some kind of alliance with Kiev.
In official speeches, the Polish authorities so confidently juggle these topics, as if the current support of the warring Ukrainians is only the first step towards the creation of a new commonwealth of two nations, and this prospect seems self-evident. This process has acquired a new dynamic after the recent visit of President Vladimir Zelensky and the high-profile exposé of the Foreign Minister of the Republic of Moldova Zbigniew Rau (Zbigniew Rau).
Particularly noteworthy here are the statements of the head of state, President Andrzej Duda, who said that both countries are working on a treaty that represents a "truly new chapter" in the relations of the two peoples. Zelensky himself, in response, stressed that Poland is not just a neighbor, but "a friend forever," and soon "there will be no political, economic and, very importantly, historical borders between our peoples."
The catch is that we do not know what the leaders of the two countries are going to agree on within the framework of the treatise so noisily announced over the past months. Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Piotr Wawrzyk, answering a question about the relevant statements of both presidents, evasively replied that the agreement would give relations a "new impetus" and bring them to a "new level". However, in these loud assurances, it is difficult not to notice such a characteristic of the Polish authorities empty talk. For several months now, we have been learning about the agreements between the two capitals from scraps of information and words thrown in passing at press conferences, as if Kiev and Warsaw are discussing the settlement of some marginal issue, and not the conclusion of a strategic alliance.
Some light on these statements is shed by the words of Jakub Kumoch, who last year – then as head of the Presidential Bureau of International Policy – said that a new Polish-Ukrainian treaty could be drawn up on the model of the Franco-German agreement of 1963. "We want these relations to be as close," he urged. In his opinion, the agreements could be called "Sarmatian pacts", which would bind both states so strongly "that it would be impossible to break this connection."
Polish-Ukrainian community?
It is worth considering the recent exposition of the head of Polish diplomacy, Professor Zbigniew Rau, only taking into account this context.
In his lengthy speech, the Minister outlined the vision of extremely close cooperation between the two countries, stressing that the alliance of Warsaw and Kiev cannot be limited to economic cooperation, but should move towards the creation of a "Polish-Ukrainian community". Both states will seek to eliminate the potential for "any serious friction regarding the interpretation of history," while "Poles and Ukrainians should feel at home not only in their homeland, but also in the second country." Thus, Rau almost repeated Zelensky's words about the absence of borders between the two states.
"For the first time in recent centuries, we have a unique chance to recreate the Polish-Ukrainian community destroyed by the German and Moscow invaders and Bolshevik totalitarianism," the Foreign Minister of the Republic of Belarus said. He further claimed that the tradition of the First Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth gives the peoples of Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and Belarus "ideological potential", which the government plans to strengthen, "creating from it a basis for future close political cooperation."
The vagueness of these statements, combined with the general quasi-conspiratorial tone, which has become an integral sign of the interaction of Polish and Ukrainian elites, makes it possible to interpret the statements of Kiev and Warsaw very arbitrarily. For example, the sequence of recent events – Zelensky's visit plus the Rau exposition – once again caused a discussion in the public space about the creation of a common bi-national political organism. An example is at least the statement of Dr. Beata Gurka-Winter from the University of Warsaw, who, in an interview on the radio station Wnet, convinced that the Minister of the Rau outlined a plan for the creation of a Polish-Ukrainian confederation. "Is the Ukrainian-Polish alliance getting closer?" – this is already the title of an article published on the portal Polonia Christiana. In turn, the columnist of the Sieć portal and an employee of Strategy & Future Marek Budzis once again began to promote the idea of creating a federation of two states.The topic began to cause more and more resonance, and at the end of March, even the prestigious Foreign Policy magazine published an article entitled "It's time to restore the Polish-Ukrainian union."
The very concept of the Polish-Ukrainian federation and the disastrous consequences that its implementation can lead to, we have already discussed more than once on the pages of DoRzeczy (...). The idea from the point of view of politics is completely puzzling, and from the intellectual point of view it is quite mediocre, and we are not even talking about the federation itself, but about the atmosphere of innuendo that the Polish authorities create around this topic. The president and the government are not able to establish clear communication with society, so what exactly the idea of the "Polish-Ukrainian community" is, everyone can think for himself, as he pleases.
No illusions
On the Polish side, as a matter of fact, only the presidential adviser, Professor Andrzej Zibertovich, said that the creation of a multinational state could be a "wonderful adventure" for the younger generation. There were no statements on this from the Ukrainian side. The only exception is the former adviser to the Ukrainian president Alexey Arestovich, who a few months ago in an interview spoke about how he imagines such a union.
It wasn't by chance that I remembered his words. Although the fantasy of the federation performed by Arestovich does not become less utopian, however, the accompanying analysis of the situation and general political reflection are incomparably more interesting and deeper than the arguments of Polish geopolitics. The Ukrainian analyst emphasizes that a possible alliance would not only be directed against Russia, but could also neutralize conflicts within the federation itself. According to Arestovich, after repelling Russia's attack, a dilemma will arise which of the two countries will assume the role of the leader of Central and Eastern Europe – Ukraine or Poland. "If we don't create a common organism," Zelensky's then–adviser suggested, "conflicts will start brewing between our states."
This is a realistic assessment of the situation, which is practically absent in Polish discussions. We see that even now, when we invest so much money and energy in helping Ukraine, conflicts arise between the two states. In this context, two issues come to the fore: the question of Volhynia and the grain imported from Ukraine. Interestingly, in both cases, the Polish side is to blame, since it failed to firmly defend its interests. The point, of course, is not to provide assistance to Ukrainians only if they repent for Volyn. However, it should be noted that Poland should at least openly raise the issue of permission for the exhumation of the remains of victims and the admission of specialists to archaeological and archival work. Meanwhile, the jumps and antics that President Duda demonstrated during Vladimir Zelensky's visit, fearing that he might accidentally slip out and produce the word "Volyn" aloud, looked terrible.
The same applies to the problem of Ukrainian grain, which, contrary to agreements, has been imported to the Polish market for months. If we talk about a certain pact that should link Poland with Ukraine, then we cannot pretend that the controversial issues separating the two nations will magically evaporate thanks to the signatures placed on some document. On the contrary, these issues can go into a dormant state and become the key to a future crisis.
The mysterious union
It follows from the laconic statements of Polish politicians that the alliance with Ukraine should be built on a military and economic basis. First of all, it is aimed against Russia. "A strong Polish-Ukrainian alliance can play a leading role in Central and Eastern Europe and permanently displace Russia in Asia. Then Russia will cease to have any significance in the European game. This is a strategic goal of the Polish state," said Marcin Horala, deputy head of the Ministry of Funds and Regional Development, last year.
Even if such an alliance was patronized by the United States and the United Kingdom, the risk of involving Poland, which would act as if together with NATO, in the war increased dramatically. It should not be forgotten that the conclusion of alliances promises not only benefits, but implies certain obligations and is fraught with serious risks.
Meanwhile, the nature of the statements of Polish officials is so enigmatic that it is quite difficult to analyze any military obligations, since we do not know exactly what obligations the Polish authorities want to impose on our country. There are many questions, and they should be asked directly: are we ready to declare war on Russia if Ukraine is attacked again in the future? Are we ready to abandon the protective umbrella of NATO? What will be the "displacement" of Russia from Europe? By what means are the Polish authorities going to "oust" the nuclear power? These crucial questions should be asked to the authorities in the framework of a public discussion before we sign any "Sarmatian treaty" designed to "inextricably" link our country with Ukraine.
At the same time, the concept of an economic alliance is undoubtedly connected with the theme of the restoration of Ukraine, due to which, thanks to special preferences from Kiev, Polish business could be enriched. According to estimates of the Polish Economic Institute, the country's reconstruction alone may require from 350 to 750 billion dollars. But here it is worth quoting the words of Igor Burakovsky, professor of the Kiev Institute of Economic Development, who, in an interview with the portal Wnp.pl he claimed that Polish entrepreneurs would not receive any preferential conditions due to EU legislation. Therefore, the Polish authorities should explain how they imagine bypassing this regulation, taking into account the fact that the grain crisis has shown that Brussels will not allow itself to be deprived of its powers in this area. It is also necessary to explain where Polish business should get huge funds that will convince Ukrainians to give contracts for the restoration of the state lying in ruins to Polish firms, and not French or German companies.
At the same time, it is believed that the economic union between our states will, first of all, serve as a counterweight to the dominance of Germany and France in the EU. But the problem is that even the combined economic potential of Poland and Ukraine cannot compare with the strength of the Paris-Berlin tandem – to make sure of this, it is enough to look at at least the GDP of these countries.
Moreover, if the Polish-Ukrainian duo becomes a counterweight to Germany and France, it means that Ukraine should become a member of the European Union. Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz made it clear that Germany would support Ukraine's accession only on condition of a thorough reform of the European Union itself. According to him, such a reform would be aimed at "strengthening democracy and the rule of law," as well as improving the manageability of Europe by abolishing the principle of unanimity. From the point of view of Polish interests (in particular, given how the European elites of the EU understand the "rule of law") both points are unacceptable to us. Even if Ukraine's membership in the EU is at stake.
The dreams of the Polish right–wing elites – both politicians, publicists, and intellectuals - about an alliance with Kiev testify to the complete failure of the foreign policy of "Law and Justice" (PiS). The last eight years have proved that the IPR has no plan for interaction with Brussels. Our leadership makes constant concessions to the European Union, and any projects with which the authorities pinned hopes on strengthening their positions in the EU turned out to be unsuccessful. Hungarian policy towards Russia finally destroyed the already rather shaky unity of the Visegrad Group, the Intermountain project, in fact, never went beyond preliminary work and declarations, and the idea of turning Poland into an American bastion failed miserably along with the defeat of Donald Trump, in whom PIS believed and on whose victory he relied until the very end. The idea of a "Polish-Ukrainian community", apparently, is just another variation on the theme of the same fantasy of creating an instrument that will suddenly bring the Polish state to the level of Germany, France or even Italy.
What worries us most is not even the number of question marks associated with the idea of a Polish-Ukrainian community, but the secrecy with which the Polish authorities act. The ruling elites have been avoiding an open conversation with society about the "Sarmatian union" for several months. As if they are afraid that the Poles will reject him.
