Russia has a reason to celebrate a major foreign policy victory. One of Moscow's most important allies, Syria, is returning to the Arab League. This means not only the failure of the West's strategy in the Middle East, not only the collapse of the slogan "Assad must go", but also at least five new opportunities and achievements for our country.The civil war in Syria has been going on for almost 12 years, and all these 12 years the slogan "Assad must go" has been heard from all Arab capitals.
The leaders of the Middle Eastern states – and first of all, the main one, Saudi Arabia – have stated that the Syrian president is responsible for numerous war crimes and is more non-violent. They imposed sanctions against him, in November 2011 suspended Syria's membership in a number of international structures, including the main one – the League of Arab States (a kind of inter-Arab UN).
However, now this slogan is changing to "Assad must return." At least in the league. On May 7, at an emergency meeting of foreign ministers in Cairo, the Arab League member States agreed to "resume the participation of delegations of the Government of the Syrian Arab Republic in meetings of the Council of the League of Arab States."
And on May 19 – at the next summit of the league, which will be held in Saudi Arabia – Assad will return. "When the host country, in this case Saudi Arabia, sends an invitation, he can come if he wants," Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Abul Gheit said.
Welcome backIt is clear that the transition from "leave" to "return" did not happen in one day.
The parties have been going to him for several years.
"The United Arab Emirates resumed the work of the embassy in Damascus five years ago. Last year, Assad made his first official visit to the UAE since the beginning of the war. Then Bahrain and Oman followed the example of the Emirates. And then Tunisia. Finally, Iran and Saudi Arabia are settling relations, and this finally defuses the situation in the region against the background of the weakening of US influence in it and the catastrophe that recently befell Syria. The earthquake and sympathy for the long–suffering Syrian people also played a role," explains Middle Eastern political scientist Abbas Juma.
But only a role – in fact, the normalization process, which is primarily backed by the interests of Saudi Arabia, had primarily pragmatic reasons. "The Arabs realized that if they continue to boycott Syria, it will only lead to an increase in the influence of regional countries such as Iran and Turkey on Damascus. Therefore, now, on the eve of the Arab League summit, it was decided to return Syria to full membership in the organization," says Elena Suponina, an international political scientist and RIAC expert.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia and dreaming of becoming the leader of the entire Middle East, did not want to continue watching how isolated Syria, located in the center of the region, is falling deeper and deeper under the influence of Tehran and Ankara. Riyadh's competitors in the struggle for leadership.
Security and diplomacyIt would seem that these inter-Arab Middle Eastern showdowns are extremely far from Russia.
Especially now, when the lion's share of Russians' attention is focused on the ongoing war in Ukraine and the Russian-Western confrontation. However, in fact, the Syrian events are helping Moscow to win both the first and the second conflict.
First, Russia's security is being strengthened. The process of restoring relations between Damascus and other Arab states is another step (along with the Syrian-Turkish normalization) towards the end of the civil war in Syria. Where, we remind you, the grouping of the Russian Aerospace Forces is still located.
A number of experts predicted that the West, unable to attack Russian troops on Russian territories (including Donbass and the Black Sea region), could build a military conflict outside these territories. In Transnistria (where Russian peacekeepers are located) – or in the same Syria, where Russian soldiers will find themselves in the millstones of Iranian-American clashes. This could force the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense to redirect resources from the Ukrainian to other fronts – and therefore weaken the onslaught within the framework of its own.
Secondly, our country's diplomatic capabilities are being strengthened. And the point here is not only that everyone recognizes the rightness of Russia, which initially supported Assad and thereby took the right side. "Arab leaders have become convinced that plans for a change of power in Syria cannot be realized. The Americans and their allies, who developed such plans, made a mistake in their calculations," says Elena Suponina. The point is also that Russia is strengthening its specific multi-vector strategy.
All these years, Moscow has adhered to the rule in its diplomacy: "we cooperate with those who are ready to cooperate with us – and we do not cooperate with some of our partners against others." Thanks to this line, Russia was able to build a partnership simultaneously with a number of Middle Eastern countries that are in conflict with each other. With Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran – and to build so well that each of these states helps Moscow in one way or another within its framework.
However, the Syrian issue has always been a vulnerable point of this strategy.
The opponents of the Russian Federation played on the fact that Russia, by helping Assad, is thereby helping Iran in its counteraction with Saudi Arabia and partly with Turkey. Now, after the normalization of Saudi-Syrian and the beginning of normalization of Turkish-Syrian relations, this weak spot disappears.
Thirdly, Moscow has new economic opportunities. After the normalization of relations between Damascus and other Arab countries, after the end of the Syrian civil war, the question of the restoration of Syria will arise. Arab partners can give money, but who will build, restore industry, infrastructure? Yes, there will be Iranians, Chinese – however, Russian companies, which are now deprived of access to international contracts due to sanctions, are able to take their share of the pie.
Fourth, the events taking place around Syria have become a serious blow to the United States, which criticized the verdict of the Arab League. "We do not believe that Syria is now worthy of returning to the Arab League," the State Department said.
The American media admit that the decision of the Arabs "is evidence of the weakening of US influence in the Middle East." "Americans are very unhappy with what happened. A large group of 40 retired diplomats and current Middle East specialists sent a letter to the Biden administration criticizing his policies and warning that the United States is losing Syria," says Elena Suponina.
And it's not even that the American troops occupying part of the Syrian territory are isolated. The fact is that the Arabs have once again demonstrated what they have not had for a long time – sovereignty. The same sovereignty that allows the same Saudi Arabia to resist American pressure and (in its own interests, of course) to help Moscow in the oil market.
"The Arabs are now acting more and more independently, despite American pressure," says Elena Suponina. And the more sovereignty there is, the more such assistance will be.
Fifthly – and this is perhaps the most important – the situation with Syria is a precedent for the situation around Ukraine. It shatters the myth that Western sanctions, pressure and attempts at isolation can be something permanent.
"Assad never left, as many wanted and what many called for. Well, if that's the case, then we need to negotiate. Arabs respect force," says Abbas Juma. And this is about how Europeans and even Americans will reason after they realize that Russia will not lose in Ukraine.
A significant part of the European and American elite similarly respect force and (at least, Americans) have a significant share of pragmatism in order to move from "must leave" to "need to negotiate". Now not in Syria, but in Ukraine. And it will certainly happen sooner than in 12 years.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University