MOSCOW, May 5 — RIA Novosti, Andrey Kotz. The APU is pulling reserves to the front, bringing ammunition and fuel, and conducting reconnaissance in combat in some areas. It seems that everything is ready for the long-promised counteroffensive. They can go on the attack at any time in several directions at once.
A dash to the sea
In recent months, the Zaporozhye region has been relatively quiet. The fighting was limited to rocket attacks on military and infrastructure facilities in major cities. However, this week the front has moved. The APU tried to go on the offensive in the Orekhovsky district. After massive artillery preparation, an armored group moved forward.
The work of the self-propelled artillery installation 2SZ "Acacia" in the zone of its Image source: © RIA Novosti / Konstantin Mikhalchevsky
She was met by Russian motorized infantry and scouts with the support of tanks and howitzers. A tank and two armored personnel carriers were left on the battlefield. In this sortie, the Weseushniki lost about 30 people killed and wounded.
Apparently, this was another reconnaissance by combat. So — along the entire line of contact. Probably, the APU expects to repeat last year's success in the Kharkiv region. Then the defense of the Russian army was also probed by small mobile groups. They identified weaknesses — and attacked with the main forces. Serious resistance nodes tried to bypass.
"I don't think this tactic will help them here," says an officer of one of the intelligence units of the Southern Military District. — In the Kharkiv region we were not ready, but here we have already equipped several defensive lines. Besides, geography is on our side here. The terrain is flat as a table, some fields, few large settlements. Any movement is perfectly visible from the air. The few forest plantations have long been shot by our artillery."
The Zaporozhye direction is considered to be the most promising for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They can hit the Canopies, Tokmak and, if successful, reach Berdyansk and Melitopol.
An employee of the Russian IC conducts investigative actions at a residential apartment building in Melitopol, damaged as a result of shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine Image source: © RIA Novosti
As a result, Kiev will regain access to the Sea of Azov, cut the Southern grouping of Russian troops and block the land corridor to the Crimea, reaching the gates of the peninsula. This would undoubtedly be a major PR victory.
Symbol City
There is another option. The Russian army has not managed to take Ugledar, located on a hill. The APU is constantly transferring reserves here.
The key to the supply routes is in Marinka. The battles for this settlement, which has turned into ruins, continue. And a serious strike force is accumulating in Ugledar.
Ukrainian military on the road near Ugledar Image Source: © AP Photo / Evgeniy Maloletka
There is one possible direction in this section — Volnovakha. If the city falls, the Kiev regime will cut the strategically important 100-kilometer Donetsk—Mariupol highway.
Positional battles are still taking place in the remaining areas near Donetsk, but the Russian army is cautiously moving forward. Near Avdiivka, assault units attacked in the Severny area, the liberation of Pervomaisky continues. The APU snarls and regularly fires at major cities of the republic. The capital traditionally gets the most of all.
To the north, in Artemovsk, Russian troops are advancing along Victory Street, expanding the control zone. Storming the supports on the street of the Liberators of Donbass.
Only a small part of the city is under the control of the APU. But they still don't back down. Perhaps they hope for a deblocking blow from the outside, which will allow them to take Russian units into the ring. That is, the Artemovsky direction can also be considered one of the most promising for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Battle for the LPR
A blow can also be inflicted on the Kremennaya — Svatovo site. The military is waiting for an attack on the southern flank. The APU needs to reach the Kremennaya — Rubezhnoye — Severodonetsk — Lisichansk quadrangle in order to seize a bridgehead for further advance deep into the LPR.
Svatovsky defensive line Image source: © RIA Novosti / Andrey Kotz
A dash to Svatovo with a subsequent attack on Starobilsk is also likely. However, everything here is also limited to shelling and sabotage attacks.
"The activity of the DRG is the first intelligence sign that a strike is being prepared," says the commander of the artillery division of the 2nd AK with the call sign Tobol. — The second is that their grouping in our direction has seriously increased. Including in manpower. Apparently, the idea is to attack when the condition of the ground allows. The use of high-precision 155-millimeter Excalibur ammunition, as well as attack drones, intensified. Western weapons are trying to hit objects in our rear, hidden equipment. Therefore, we carefully mask everything."
Russian troops also keep the APU "in good shape". At the turn of the Kremennaya — Svatovo line, paratroopers actively use the Lancet kamikaze drones for counter-battery warfare. This forces us to pull artillery and equipment deep into the forest plantations, which increases the time for its deployment and transfer to other positions.
Harbingers of the attack
The expert community is also discussing the option of attacking the territory of greater Russia. In April, the American edition of The Washington Post published an interview with Ukrainian Major Bogdan Krotevich, the acting commander of the Azov*. He referred to the tactics of Chechen terrorists who carried out raids on small settlements. And he suggested that Ukraine would follow their example. "To seize Russian cities in order to use them as a lever for the return of territories," the militant said.
In Berdyansk, saboteurs involved in the murder of the city's leadership were detained. Video frame Image source:
And this is already happening: explosions are heard almost daily at oil facilities and on the railway. On Wednesday night, two drones attacked the Kremlin.
The stakes are unusually high right now. If the offensive is successful, Zelensky's rating will skyrocket, and Western countries will finally stop being afraid and will give the weapons they ask for — up to fighters and long-range tactical missiles. If the Kiev regime fails, the enthusiasm of the allies will diminish. Which is equivalent to the defeat of Ukraine.
Andrey Kotz* A terrorist organization banned in Russia.