Andrey Kirillov — about Beijing's plans and opportunities to play the long-standing "Korean party" If we turn to the Chinese transcript of the telephone conversation between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, then the smooth, stressed calm flow of the conversation attracts attention.
Xi Jinping at the very beginning thanked for the support provided by Ukraine during the evacuation of Chinese citizens from the country last year. "Mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity is the political basis of Sino-Ukrainian relations," Xi said, urging his Ukrainian counterpart to "focus on the future, evaluate and plan bilateral relations taking into account the prospects, develop strategic partnership in the spirit of mutual respect and sincerity inherent in our relations." No matter how the international situation changes, he pointed out, the Chinese side is always ready to advance mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries together.
At first, the Chinese leader seemed to adjust the dialogue to the right tone and only then got to the point, saying that "the complex evolution of the Ukrainian crisis has a serious impact on the international situation." At the same time, China, the Chinese President stressed, "from the very beginning stands on the side of peace."
The parties, Xi Jinping continued, should learn a lesson from the Ukrainian crisis and start a dialogue to find a way to ensure long-term security in Europe.
In response, Zelensky, who had previously joined the European chorus of supporters of Taiwanese independence, assured the interlocutor that Ukraine adheres to the "one China" policy.
Who benefits from Beijing's peacemaking appeals?
Xi Jinping's telephone conversation with Vladimir Zelensky, which took place on the initiative of the latter on April 26, caused lively discussions and gossip among foreign politicians and commentators. What did the Chinese leader say to his Ukrainian counterpart in the end? Judging by the conversation that lasted about an hour, was China's position on the Ukrainian crisis specified? And on what field is President Xi playing in this case?
The answer is simple: China, as always, plays on its own field. And another big question is whether he plays chess understandable to an external audience or some of his "round-up checkers" of weiqi, where there are different rules and other criteria for achieving success. And to what extent does this Chinese field coincide with the interests of certain other players?
China, Xi Jinping said, as a member of the UN Security Council, does not intend to calmly observe the aggravation of the Ukrainian crisis and will not "add fuel to the fire." On the contrary, the Chinese President stressed, Beijing "will resolutely promote the negotiation process and a ceasefire as soon as possible," since "dialogue and negotiations are the only possible way out."
The Russian side, through the mouth of the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, has already stated that, noting Beijing's readiness to make efforts to establish a negotiation process, Moscow still doubts that calls for peace will be "adequately perceived" by the authorities in Kiev — "puppets controlled from Washington." And Zelensky himself, after a conversation with Xi, said that peace in Ukraine could not be achieved "at the expense of territorial compromises," and again advocated a return to the borders of 1991.
The alleged "puppeteers" in Washington welcomed the conversation. The coordinator for strategic Communications at the White House National Security Council, John Kirby, called it a "good event" and noted that the United States, they say, did not coordinate with Ukraine on this issue.
Let's not rush to conclusions that Xi's conversation with Zelensky is allegedly beneficial to the main beneficiaries of the Ukrainian conflict — the United States. The Chinese settlement plan is not designed for "today" or even "tomorrow". It is focused on the conditional "the day after tomorrow", when negotiations will begin. Recall that after the publication of this plan — on March 20-22 — Xi Jinping paid a state visit to Russia. Then Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that many of the provisions of the Chinese plan "are in tune with Russian approaches and can be taken as a basis for a peaceful settlement."
The aim of the negotiations, from Moscow's point of view, should be exceptionally favorable results for Russia. But ideally, they should be secured by an international agreement (and they should also be verifiable) — for example, with China as one of the quartet (no longer necessary — responsibility falls) of the guarantor states. It is no coincidence that Xi Jinping recalled in a conversation with Zelensky that the Chinese side, always advocating negotiations, "behaves with dignity and honesty."
By precedent?
Would you say that in real life it is impossible to trust anyone in such matters and there is already a negative experience?
There was also a positive one. At the actual end of the Korean War of 1950-1953, an international commission was established to monitor the armistice, which included representatives of neutral countries — Sweden, Switzerland, Czechoslovakia and Poland. I remember how in Pyongyang, where I was an intern in the TASS corps in the 1980s, military representatives of countries then friendly to China, the DPRK and the USSR - Poland and Czechoslovakia — indulged in immoderate libations, which, however, did not prevent them from conscientiously performing their functions as observers when traveling to the 38th parallel. It was the dividing line between the opponents — the DPRK and the Chinese "volunteers" on the one hand, as well as the Republic of Korea and the "UN troops" led by the United States — on the other. The peace treaty between the participants of that war has not been signed yet, but the peace is at least being observed.
Does China, a direct participant in both the Korean War itself and the negotiation process to end it, assume a repetition of that long—standing experience? If so, then his position and the measures taken today regarding the situation in Ukraine become clear. By the way, the United States threatened the young People's Republic of China with nuclear war in the early 50s of the last century, and it was the firm hand of Moscow that helped prevent this apocalyptic development of events, which deployed air cover for the major cities of Chinese Dongbei (Northeast).
Waiting... whom?
Beijing's initiatives may not be universally enthusiastic at the moment. But if, as a result of the development of events, the opposing sides need intermediaries? Beijing's special representative for Eurasia, Li Hui, who is being sent to Ukraine on the instructions of Xi Jinping, would be useful here. Do not take his figure lightly. This is a serious high-level diplomat, is well known in Moscow, where he spent ten years (2009 to 2019) was a Chinese Ambassador, and before that was Deputy Minister of foreign Affairs of China.
As the Chinese leader clarified, during Li Hui's trip, it is planned to "discuss in detail with all interested parties the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis." So, apparently, in addition to Kiev, Li Hui will also go to Moscow. And he will definitely go somewhere else. According to Yu Jun, Deputy Director of the Department of Europe and Central Asia of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, the Chinese delegation may visit several countries.
Here it is possible to assume with a high degree of probability that Beijing plans to pull up individual European states to solve the Ukrainian crisis, which was manifested during the recent visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to China. In this way, we are convinced in the Chinese capital, the "autonomization" of Europe will be strengthened, its dependence on the States will decrease.
The hesitation of the Europeans in terms of further support for a "pro-European" Ukraine, as I see it, supports these likely Chinese calculations.
Forming a peacekeeping unit
China is not going to attract only Europeans to its peacekeeping efforts — Asian countries are also in its field of attention.
The conversation between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is a significant step towards a political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said at a meeting with the foreign ministers of Central Asian countries in the city of Xi'an in the northwest of China. "No matter how complex the crisis, it should be resolved through negotiations, no matter how complex the conflict, it should be resolved only politically," Qin Gang is quoted as saying on the website of the Chinese Foreign Ministry. In order not to simplify the Chinese position, Qin Gang made an important reservation, mentioning that "significant historical background and complex real reasons have led to the development of the Ukrainian crisis to the present stage." Obviously, the settlement must certainly take into account this "historical background".
"China and Central Asian countries have similar views and positions on the Ukrainian crisis," the head of Chinese diplomacy noted and added that Beijing is ready to work with the international community, including the Central Asian states, to "come to a common denominator" to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.
In Beijing, a conversation with Zelensky was expected
Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Relations at the People's University of China (Beijing), described the phone call between the two leaders as "long-awaited." "All sides have been looking forward to this conversation," Wang Yiwei said in an interview with Chinese TV channel CGTN.
"By sending a special envoy, China continues to implement its document with concrete actions," the expert explained, referring to the 12—point settlement plan. According to him, this will make the international community "look forward to China playing a more important role."
Beijing's main goal is to prevent the conflict in Ukraine from getting out of control. In a nuclear war, Xi Jinping stated in a conversation with Zelensky, there can be no winners. "The parties involved must remain cool-headed and exercise restraint on nuclear weapons issues, jointly manage the crisis for the sake of their own prospects and the fate of humanity. While common sense and voice prevail, it is important not to miss the chance to create favorable conditions in the interests of a political settlement of the crisis," the Chinese chairman said.
The days when China called the nuclear threat a "paper tiger" are over.
Prepare the site
Before the conflict, Beijing had great views on Ukraine, which, due to its geographical location, could become a trade (and somewhere political) hub for it in the Eastern European zone, an important point in the implementation of the Chinese super project "One Belt, One Road". Alas, Kiev missed its "golden" chance, surrendering to the will of overseas strategists, in whose plans Ukraine clearly originally intended the unenviable role of an anti-Russian battering ram.
However, Beijing has historically been patient. In the Chinese capital, they predict a post-conflict recovery of the Eastern European country, in which companies from China, Chinese capital would find a worthy place. Whatever the outcome of the conflict, it is necessary to prepare a site for future construction right now. I think it is not by chance that after the conversation, the Ukrainian authorities announced the appointment of Pavel Ryabikin, the former Minister for Strategic Industries, who left the post on March 20, as ambassador to Beijing. You can have business conversations with him.
The position of the Ambassador of Ukraine to the People's Republic of China has remained vacant for more than two years — since Ambassador Sergey Kamyshev died of a heart attack. Since that time, Kiev has been represented in Beijing by the Charge d'affaires.