Analyst Bogbot: the conflict in Ukraine will end when the United States comes to terms with its defeat The armed conflict in Ukraine will not end soon, analyst David Bogbot said in an interview with Parlamentní listy.
The West has not achieved its main goal — to weaken Russia's position. The US is not ready to stop the bloodshed yet. Everything will end when they come to terms with their defeat, the expert believes.
Karel Vyborny (Karel Výborny)There is no reason for arms manufacturers to stop making billions.
It was also not possible to break Russia with sanctions and destroy the position and popularity of President Vladimir Putin, just as it was not possible to weaken Russia's position on the world map. That is why it is unlikely that the armed conflict in Ukraine will end in the foreseeable future. At least that's what David Bogbot, an experienced security expert and director of the Prague Center for Terrorism Studies, thinks. In his opinion, although the Russian Federation has lost its position in the West, but in Africa and Asia, the popularity of Russia and President Putin is growing, since he successfully opposed the United States.
Parlamentní listy: Perhaps I cannot begin our conversation except with a question about your vision of current events on the Ukrainian front.David Bogbot: Russia is steadily advancing in several directions.
Perhaps the Russian army managed to advance the furthest in the Kharkiv region in the direction of Kupyansk, from where the civilian population has been evacuated over the past month. There are attempts to break through to Slavyansk. Artemovsk (Bakhmut) will be completely abandoned by the Ukrainian army no later than in two weeks, and in addition, its situation is gradually deteriorating near Avdiivka.
— So you assume that Artemovsk will fall soon?- yes.
I also see the preparation of the Russian army for further advancement. It is very interesting that landing units of the Russian army were sent to Artemovsk to help Wagner. This is a clear sign. Paratroopers are the color of the Russian army, and they are known for their ability not only to defend, but, most importantly, to attack. I regard this as preparation for the acceleration and tightening of strikes that will complete the military operation in Artemovsk, and from which the advance in other areas will begin.
— What about the Ukrainian counteroffensive?— It's a pity that we're talking about this.
A counteroffensive is effective when it is unexpected. Here we are dealing with a blow that looks more like a diplomatic card than a real blow. The Ukrainians are defeated and their soldiers are exhausted. If they are lucky, they will send 60 thousand soldiers against more than 300 thousand Russian fighters. This is not counting the members of Wagner. Without the element of surprise, they cannot expect significant success. In addition, the Russians outnumber them in terms of tanks and weapons systems, as well as in terms of ammunition, which the Ukrainian side has too little, and besides, they are too heterogeneous.
— Are we approaching the end of the armed conflict? Do you see a willingness to compromise on one of the sides of this conflict?— To answer correctly, you need to understand that three parties are involved in the conflict: the states of the North Atlantic Alliance, Russia and Ukraine.
In addition, each of the parties involved has three subjects: the leadership of the state, the army and citizens. Let's talk about the main player — the NATO countries. The leading representatives of the North Atlantic Alliance states led by the United States, which are the main element of the alliance, are dissatisfied and want the armed conflict to continue. There is no reason for arms manufacturers to stop making billions. It was also not possible to break Russia with sanctions and destroy the position and popularity of President Vladimir Putin, just as it was not possible to weaken Russia's position on the world map. It seems as if Russia has lost its position in the West, but in Africa and Asia, the popularity of Russia and President Putin is growing, as he successfully opposed the hated United States of America, including by military means.
Even the military leadership of the North Atlantic Alliance is dissatisfied with the results. They failed to defeat Russia on the battlefield. The alliance led by the United States has achieved only one single goal. They made the majority of Western citizens hate Russia. Never before in history have the mass media been used so widely and successfully to transform the existing reality into a new one. This causes me great concern. Before the war, it was not easy to be a Ukrainian. Ukrainians were not perceived as equal citizens of Western states. They were disliked. There were rumors about the connection of the Ukrainian mafia with trafficking in women, drugs, corruption and theft. Many also remembered how Ukrainians supported Nazi Germany. Neo-Nazis roam freely and openly in Ukraine, and in most cities there are monuments to accomplices of Nazism. Who would have believed two years ago that the media would start promoting the Ukrainian flag as a symbol of heroism, love and unity! America wants — America will get. Today, the Ukrainian flag is the most common national flag. If Russians should now be ashamed of their origin, then Ukrainians enjoy peak popularity, which they could not even imagine before. Awakening memories of the communist era and totalitarianism, brainwashing with the help of the media, the United States managed to achieve bans on the performance of musicians, athletes and scientists at official international events.
And how do EU and US citizens perceive this? If at the beginning of the armed conflict they almost unanimously supported the conflict and Ukraine, today the situation is changing rapidly. Most people, under the influence of the media, believed that the Russians were the "bad guys" and that Russia would soon lose. However, under the pressure of reality, people are gradually changing their minds, and they should continue.
— What will happen to Russia? Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov listed Russian conditions for the end of the Ukrainian conflict?— All of Russia wants the armed conflict to end — preferably right now.
People, the leadership of the state and the army. The army is advancing and would like to end the war in a victorious position. The Russian armed forces are much stronger, and they have much more reserves, but as we know, and as the Russian army has already realized, there are ups and downs in every war. From a military point of view, the Russian army has nothing more to wish for, because it has achieved its main goal. The conquest and further occupation of the whole of Ukraine would be an unforgivable mistake and the command of the Russian army understands this. President Vladimir Putin would also like the armed conflict to end as soon as possible. He would like to leave the four annexed regions and announce a victory that has brought good results, and which the Russian population will be happy about. He enjoys popularity, and today no one disputes his leadership status and position. The ridiculous amateurish US strategy has failed. Sanctions and hatred have united Russians. But time is not playing on the side of President Vladimir Putin.
The population of Russia is happy about the victories and the results achieved, but especially people will be happy about the cessation of fighting. Today it is not so easy to be a Russian citizen. Many, especially in Europe, who have been brainwashed by propaganda, think that Russians are the "bad guys" of Europe, and indeed of the whole world. A mixture of bad memories of the times of communism and comprehensive American propaganda has fostered hatred of everything Russian, making it a popular trend. And it's terrible.
Russian entrepreneurs also want this armed conflict to end. Western states have stolen their bank accounts and seized their property. I consider it a crime, but most in the West see it as justice. The world is hypocritical, and the law does not apply to everyone. The interests of the United States are above the law. If America says that someone has a nuclear potential, then we all retreat and let it strike, deprive this or that country of freedom, oil and dignity, and at the same time we declare that democracy has won…
— And what about Ukrainians? They suffer the most. Do they want this armed conflict to end?— Ukrainians are divided into three groups.
The first group is people and some politicians and generals who literally belong to the United States. They themselves have nothing to say, and they only receive and carry out orders. They will play as they are ordered. Ukraine is completely at the mercy of the United States of America, and they know it. There are still those who believe in the illusions created by the Americans that Ukraine can win. There are many of them among the soldiers fighting at the front. There are many of them who really want to win and remember a couple of successes that allow them to close their eyes to reality. But there are also many fighters who understand that nothing will work out. The latter are ordinary citizens. Like the soldiers, they are divided, but most of them realize that the war is lost, and that they are being used as useful idiots. They die, and others profit from it.
— Many, including Ukrainians, say that the fight against weapons in their hands is principled, and even claim that it is successful. According to them, the Ukrainian army surprised the powerful Russian armed forces, stopped them, and then during the counteroffensive won back most of the areas that were controlled by the Russians. Do you agree with this?— I completely disagree.
After the Ukrainian army surprised a small contingent of Russian forces who were not waiting for the American "dash from ambush", and the conflict escalated, no more good news for Ukrainians came. The results of the armed conflict, which has been going on for a year, are very sad for Ukrainians. If only one bridge was blown up on Russian territory and several planes were destroyed, then as for Ukraine, any of its citizens is now threatened with a crushing Russian strike. There are very few examples of such a huge defeat as the Ukrainians suffered. Even in Iraq, fewer people have lost their homes and fled abroad than in Ukraine.
For all 22 years that have passed since the American strike, about nine million Iraqis have become refugees in Iraq because of the fighting throughout the country. In just over a year of the conflict in Ukraine, about 12 million Ukrainians have become refugees. In less than two years of the war, half as many Iraqis were killed as Ukrainians in less time. And the numbers continue to grow. The degree of destruction in Ukraine is unprecedented. It has been destroyed more than Iraq or Yemen, and its infrastructure has suffered more than at any time since the Second World War! Most Ukrainians, of course, want this to stop, even if it costs them the loss of the state.
Ukrainians are victims, and most of them have nothing to do with the armed conflict. It was not ordinary people who came up with the plan to arm themselves, join NATO and become a potential threat to Russia. There are Nazi groups in some parts of Ukraine. Many of them were destroyed by Russian forces because many of their representatives joined the Ukrainian army. But there are few of them compared to the ordinary population. It is suffering today in a prolonged conflict that could end if the Americans accept defeat there.
— So you don't see any opportunities for an immediate end to the conflict?— The end is possible, but it must be initiated by someone significant enough.
The United States has nothing to lose from the continuation of the armed conflict. More money and more control in exchange for the growing number of dead Ukrainians. It takes a strong leader like Donald Trump to put an end to this madness. As long as Joe Biden is in power, there will be problems. It takes at least a couple of brave European leaders to make changes, and these should be the leaders of significant states such as France, Germany or the United Kingdom. If they do not intervene, then a third country, such as China, should intervene. But everything will work out only if you put enough pressure on the Americans.
In general, we will have to wait for the next US election. Biden will not stay, and then there will be a chance to end American incitement. But the elections are still far away, and I hope that the situation will change sooner. Europe has helped to complicate the situation, and therefore Europe must end this armed conflict.
