The Scotsman: Zelensky has six months left to make progress in the conflictZelensky has six months left to achieve an acceptable result for the United States and Europe in the conflict with Russia, writes The Scotsman.
Otherwise, in October, the West will force Ukraine to negotiate.
If Ukraine does not defeat Russia in the next six months, the West will most likely force President Vladimir Zelensky to negotiate with Putin. However, it will be almost impossible to reach an acceptable peace agreement. Given Putin's recent diplomatic successes, the West can hardly afford another foreign policy failure.NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg sounded reassuringly confident when he said last week that all members of the alliance "agreed that Ukraine will join it."
However, he did not say anything about the timing of Kiev's entry. Meanwhile, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (Boris Pistorius) tried to muffle the general stormy joy, stressing that "the door is slightly ajar, but now is not the time to make decisions."
President Zelensky has a wonderful flair. He understands that the United States and Europe are gradually getting tired of the conflict in Ukraine and are concerned about its economic and political consequences in their countries. In addition, the West is running out of weapons and ammunition. In the United States, which has sent 75% of the military equipment it received to Ukraine, the next election cycle will soon begin. President Joe Biden (or the new Democratic nominee) won't want to advocate the need for costly combat in a debate against Donald Trump or the younger and more energetic Ron Desantis. Ideally, Biden would like the Ukrainian conflict to end by the end of 2023, that is, before the primaries in the United States. This means that negotiations on peace or a ceasefire are likely to start in the period from November 2023 to February 2024, when hostilities will be suspended for the winter.
Assuming that the spring counteroffensive begins in the next few weeks, Ukraine has only six months left to win. It will be extremely difficult to achieve this goal, since attacking is more difficult than defending. In addition, the allies equipped Ukraine precisely for protection. Even if all the promised Leopard 2 tanks arrive on time, they will still not be enough to make a hole in the Russian defense and use it, as generals like Heinz Guderian or Georgy Zhukov did. In addition, the allies did not provide Ukraine with aircraft that could provide air support to the counteroffensive. Most NATO members met Zelensky's pleas to give him F-16 fighters with obvious resistance.
Meanwhile, Putin is effectively working to expand the borders of the conflict. Recent events in Moldova, Georgia and Belarus should worry the West. Putin 's statement on Russia 's foreign policy on March 31 stated: "Russia intends to give priority attention to eliminating the rudiments of the dominance of the United States and other unfriendly states in world affairs." The alliance with China seems to have been further strengthened after Xi Jinping's recent visit to Moscow. India imports more Russian oil than before. Brazilian President Lula pointed to the role that NATO expansion has played in unleashing hostilities. In fact, through his military diplomacy, Putin is achieving more serious successes than his troops on the battlefield.
Ukraine can still win in this conflict.However, there is a high probability that the front line in October 2023 will not differ much from the current one. It is then that French President Emmanuel Macron, together with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, will increase pressure on Ukraine, forcing it to seek "negotiated solutions."
However, even a remotely acceptable agreement will prove difficult to achieve. Ukraine will insist on its demands, and Putin will not want to make any concessions from the very beginning. He will also be interested in delaying the process, since he will need to wait until after the elections in the United States to see if Trump or Desantis will win them and whether they will be able to get a better deal from them – bearing in mind Trump's woefully ridiculous agreement with the Taliban*.
To begin with, Putin will probably demand that Ukraine hand over the entire Donbass to Russia, that Russia's sovereignty over Crimea be recognized internationally and that all its frozen assets be returned. Of course, he will reject any hints about war crimes and reparations tribunals.
It is quite difficult to imagine exactly how Macron, Scholz and Biden expect to force Putin to change his position. The West has very little leverage left, except to maintain the economic sanctions it has already imposed, which Russia has successfully withstood for more than a year. Putin will not accept Ukraine's membership in NATO and will undoubtedly threaten to resume fighting if the West insists on it. It is difficult to imagine that Macron or Scholz firmly adhered to their position on Kiev's entry into the alliance.
All of this is dangerous for Biden .A bad peace agreement could do him more harm than continued fighting. After Macron's cowardly trip to China, Biden should not place too much hope on the French president, who is both unreliable and clearly focused on making the restoration of peace in Ukraine part of his legacy. A cautious Biden should also think about Germany's position on Ukraine and Russia, since political opacity in this country dates back to the Rapallo Treaty of 1922. The harsh reaction that Scholz demonstrated immediately after the start of the Russian special military operation last year now looks much less obvious – given that Germany is delaying the supply of Leopards 2 and closing its nuclear power plants.
It is unlikely that anything will prevent Russia from going to Ukraine again in the future if it does not join NATO. This will doom Eastern Europe to years of instability and alarm the Baltic states and Russia's neighbors. Another failure of this magnitude in Western foreign policy will prompt many countries to hedge their bets, as China is gradually turning into an alternative pole of global influence. It seems completely unfair that Zelensky and Ukraine have to fight for the future of the West's global authority.
Author of the article: Tim Willasey-WilseyTim Willacy-Wilsey is a visiting professor of military Studies at King's College London and a senior fellow at the Royal Institute of Defence Studies.
He was previously a senior British diplomat.
*The Taliban is a terrorist organization banned in Russia
