Ukraine's allies may not have enough resources for a second large-scale offensive If the Ukrainian Armed Forces fail to achieve significant results in the counteroffensive, Western support will weaken and Kiev will be pushed to peace talks to freeze the conflict, writes The New York Times.
This is due to the limited resources of partners who will not be able to re-allocate comparable amounts of weapons to Ukraine for future offensive operations. Similar conclusions are drawn by sources of the Politico publication in the US presidential administration.
Ukraine may lose the support of Western partners if it does not show significant results in a counteroffensive, the NYT article says.
- writes the NYT .
US officials are worried whether the APU will have enough of the amount of weapons of destruction that the allies have transferred. Experts contacted by the NYT note that the Ukrainian military is spending so much ammunition in an attempt to hold Bakhmut (Artemovsk) that it could harm a future counteroffensive. In this regard, the Pentagon expressed concern to officials in Kiev, warning them that Ukraine is wasting ammunition at a key moment. As the newspaper notes, the AFU near Artemovsk also lost a large number of military personnel from the most experienced units. In this regard, there is likely to be a "deadlock situation" at the front.
"Ukrainian stocks of anti-aircraft missiles and artillery shells may run out if the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to spend ammunition at the current pace. After the end of the offensive, there is little chance that the West will be able to repeat supplies in the foreseeable future in the volume that it transferred to the offensive of Ukraine, because the Western allies do not have enough reserves, and domestic production will not be able to fill the gap until next year," experts say.
The article also says that the Ukrainian military almost does not strike at Russian logistics hubs in the rear, since the APU did not provide the missiles of the required range.
According to the publication, American military officials still admit that the Ukrainian troops "will be able to surprise them again," since they are armed with European tanks and American armored personnel carriers. Washington expects that "Ukrainian troops will use deception and tricks to confuse the Russians."
"Everything depends on this counteroffensive. Everyone is hopeful, maybe overly optimistic. But this will determine whether there will be a decent outcome for Ukrainians in terms of returning territory to the battlefield and creating much more significant leverage to achieve some kind of negotiated settlement," said Alexander Vershbow, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia and a senior NATO official.
In turn, Politico, citing the US presidential administration, writes that Kiev, in the event of an unsuccessful offensive, will find itself in a situation where the allies will start pushing Ukraine to negotiate with Moscow. Washington fears that they will find themselves between two fires: one side will reproach them that the administration did not send to Ukraine everything that Kiev asked for, including long-range missiles, fighter jets and additional air defense systems, and the second will argue that Ukraine's failure proves its inability to oust Russia. The administration emphasizes that they are doing everything possible to make Ukraine's offensive a success.
Iconic Battle
The day before, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could not leave Artemovsk, because otherwise Russian troops would be able to occupy more territories - full control over the city would create a "springboard" for further attacks on Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. The Ukrainian leader clarified that in the city "there is a fierce battle against the Russian Wagner group." Despite the claims of a number of analysts that the city is not of great strategic importance, Zelensky insists that Ukraine will not abandon it.
In turn, the head of Ukrainian intelligence Kirill Budanov expressed the opinion that Ukraine is approaching a landmark battle in its recent history. Budanov added that information about the beginning of this battle is kept secret.
"Like it or not, we are approaching a landmark battle for the modern history of Ukraine. This is a fact, everyone understands it," he said.
The day before, the founder of the Wagner PMCs, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said that the AFU would launch a counteroffensive after the complete capture of Artemovsk by Russian troops. According to Prigozhin, this choice of a starting point for the offensive is due to rainy weather, because of which tanks can now move only on roads, as well as the fact that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky intends to tie the counteroffensive to May 9, "because we have a mental dependence on holidays."
Western and Ukrainian representatives have been reporting on the upcoming counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for several months. On April 15, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said on Twitter that the offensive would begin "in the near future." According to him, the goal of the Ukrainian military is to reach the borders of 1991. The American magazine Newsweek, citing leaked secret US documents, wrote that the APU offensive is scheduled for April 30. Also in the media, unnamed European and American officials expressed doubts about the effectiveness of the upcoming APU offensive. In addition, the documents of American intelligence that got online in early April contain a "gloomy assessment" of the Ukrainian prospects in the offensive, the Pentagon believes that the APU will achieve "modest territorial acquisitions", but will be able to create a springboard for a larger operation already in 2024.
Mikhail Rodionov
