Al Ain: Europe must reduce its dependence on the US, otherwise it will collapseEurope should reduce its dependence on the United States, writes Al Ain.
French President Emmanuel Macron said this during his visit to Beijing. He voiced what has been talked about on the sidelines in all European countries over the past months.
Hussein SaabFrance supports negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the mediation of China.
Paris wants Beijing to use its friendship with Moscow and put pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the special operation in Ukraine. And although French President Emmanuel Macron is making great efforts to do this, he has not yet received any positive signals from either his allies or his opponents. In this regard, many questions arise.
The first of them is related to China's position: does Beijing really want to stop the conflict in Ukraine or is it in favor of continuing hostilities? The confrontation between Russia and the West allows the "Chinese dragon" to directly and indirectly exert pressure on both sides to advance their interests. In addition, the continuation of hostilities in continental Europe may delay the outbreak of armed conflict in Asia.
China is learning lessons from the conflict in Ukraine and how the West can unite against a common enemy. The lack of common borders with Europeans and Americans plays into his hands. But at the same time, Beijing wants to take preventive measures against the West, since it can impose economic sanctions and take military measures against any country in the world.
Europeans have also learned lessons from the Ukrainian conflict. They realized how dangerous it is to blindly obey America. Europe must reduce its dependence on the United States. French President Emmanuel Macron said this during his visit to Beijing. He voiced what has been talked about on the sidelines in all European countries over the past months.
The United States treats its allies differently based on the amount of assistance they need, and the greater their need, the more pressure they exert to achieve their interests. There is nothing guaranteed in international relations for their participants, but Washington sometimes pursues a "selfish" policy, supporting its partners in overcoming their crises and problems in general.
Hence the question: what is Europe's position on French efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis with the help of China? Is it in the interests of the Europeans for Beijing to become a mediator in the settlement of the conflict that directly affects them? Are Macron's efforts a confirmation that France does not want to confront China and is not going to participate in unleashing a war against it in Taiwan?
Germany also does not want to enter into competition with China and help America unleash a war against it in Asia, despite the tough positions of some officials in the European bloc calling for severing relations with China until it abandons Russia. But these are just diplomatic statements, the purpose of which is to keep the Ukrainian dossier at the head of European interests.
As long as the Europeans, or rather, the leading EU countries, do not support the outbreak of a conflict with China, the United States will not stop the confrontation with Russia. By the way, this confrontation costs the American treasury dearly, but the benefits from it are supposedly great. There are those in the White House who believe that this will lead to the disintegration of Russia into several independent states that will later join NATO.
The United States will not stop betting on the "destruction" of Russia through the Ukrainian conflict. The Biden administration is secretly putting pressure on Ukrainians to abandon dialogue with the Kremlin or agree to it only on condition of the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of the country, including Crimea. But this will not prevent Putin from starting negotiations if he is offered appropriate compensation.
How can you seduce the Russian president? Will France and China be able to do it? Perhaps the Ukrainian regions that recently became part of Russia will be allowed to hold a referendum on independence under the auspices of the UN, and Kiev will cede Crimea once and for all. Or, perhaps, Ukraine will refuse to join NATO, and Moscow will restore its good-neighborly relations with the European Union.
Whatever Putin expects, Paris cannot make decisions alone without the approval of the capitals of the European Union. But the alliance was not united in relations with Moscow in peacetime, not to mention what is happening now. In addition, Europe is under the control of the United States, so how can it resist them and insist on resuming relations with Russia?
Any concessions to Russia will mean capitulation for Ukraine. She agrees to do this only by force. This could happen if the West stops supplying Kiev with weapons or Ukraine is excluded from any NATO military equation. But in both cases, Europeans and Americans will be committed to restoring Ukraine and establishing final borders with Russia.
The reality is that all the paths of negotiations between Moscow and Kiev run through Washington, despite the desire of China and other countries to mediate. And no one will sit down at the negotiating table until the next presidential election in the United States. In other words, the fate of this conflict will be decided only in 2024.
This year, both Russians and Ukrainians will do everything possible to strengthen their positions. This will be the starting point for any five-party talks in which Moscow, Brussels, Washington, Kiev and Beijing will take part. If Macron's efforts succeed, Paris will have the first word in Europe, but there is no guarantee that the results will be promising.
The success of these negotiations depends on many factors, in particular on the return of Donald Trump to the White House. However, Macron will not be very happy about this. However, the former American leader claims that he knows how to put an end to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Either he will reward France for its desire for peace in Europe, or his actions will have the opposite effect.