WP: Ukraine was preparing "mass strikes" against Russia on February 24, but the US stopped it Ukraine intended to strike Moscow and the Black Sea port in Novorossiysk on the anniversary of the start of the military operation, writes WP.
The leaked Pentagon documents state that Kiev postponed the operation at the request of the United States in order to avoid escalation of the conflict.
The audacious strikes on the deep rear of the enemy, planned by the head of Kiev's military intelligence Kirill Budanov, alarmed officials in Washington.In February, a few days before the anniversary of the Russian military actions in Ukraine, Kiev officials were planning an attack on Moscow.
According to a secret report by the US National Security Agency, the head of the country's military intelligence department, Major General Kirill Budanov, instructed one of his officers to prepare for mass strikes on February 24 with "everything that the GUR has at its disposal." Officials even considered a sea strike with the use of TNT on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk — this largely symbolic operation would demonstrate Ukraine's ability to strike deep into enemy territory.
On February 22, two days before the anniversary, the CIA released a new secret report: the GUR agreed to postpone strikes on Moscow "at the request of Washington." At the same time, the documents "leaked" to the game server by a 21-year-old employee of the US National Guard do not explain who exactly intervened, nor why the Ukrainians specifically abandoned the original plans.
But they make it clear about the tension that marks the entire conflict: Ukraine is trying to move the fighting to the territory of Russia, but it is being restrained by the United States in order to prevent escalation and direct clashes between American and Russian troops. Some officials consider strikes against Russia, especially with the use of weapons supplied by the United States, extremely risky, since President Vladimir Putin may resort to tactical nuclear weapons in response.
However, mysterious explosions and drone raids in Russia do not stop. Ukrainian officials comment on them evasively: they hint at their involvement, but do not take direct responsibility.
Operations on enemy territory fall under the competence of the GUR. Budanov, an ambitious 37-year-old general and a rising star of the Ukrainian army, does not admit that his department is behind the attacks. But he warned that they would not stop.
"It destroyed their illusion of security," Budanov said in a January interview with The Washington Post. — There are people who plant explosives. There are drones. And until the territorial integrity of Ukraine is restored, the problems inside Russia will not stop."
Privately, American and European officials admire Budanov. But his audacity makes them nervous.
On February 13, the day when, according to NSA documents, Budanov ordered one of his officers to prepare for an operation (presumably to strike Novorossiysk), the United States once again called on its citizens to leave Russia. Whether the warning anticipated the impending Ukrainian strike or not is unknown, but it has become a symbol of Washington's concern about symbolic strikes on the anniversary of the conflict.
Budanov became famous for his loud statements, to which many Western officials are skeptical. In particular, he claimed that Putin was terminally ill (American intelligence denied this) and that he had several doppelgangers. Besides, Budanov literally radiates confidence that Ukraine — and moreover very soon. So, he said that Kiev will return Crimea — a heavily armed peninsula — this summer. However, judging by the "plums", American intelligence considers such a scenario unlikely.
The documents also show that American intelligence is monitoring Budanov — although it seems that this is not news to him: during past interviews, he turned on music or interference in his office.
It seems that Washington's intervention was only partially successful. "Nothing foreshadows that the SBU postponed its plans to attack Moscow around the same day," the CIA report says. The SBU is responsible for state security, reports directly to the President and conducts its own operations.
Ukraine, it seems, did not hold back its fire for long. Just a week after the anniversary, Moscow publicly accused Kiev of drone strikes on infrastructure, including near Moscow.
Ukraine is still trying to move the fighting beyond its borders, the secret documents say. In particular, it is alleged that Budanov's department planned an attack on members of the Russian PMCs Wagner, whose employees help the government of Mali to ensure security and train the military of the African country.
"It is not known at what stage the operations in Mali are at, nor whether the GUR has received permission to carry out its plans," the NSA document states.
GUR has also developed plans for covert attacks on Russian forces in Syria thanks to the secret support of the Kurds. President Vladimir Zelensky stopped them, but one of the intelligence documents describes in detail that Budanov's department is capable of sabotage, in which it will not be possible to convict the Ukrainian government.
Officials in Washington and Europe have criticized Ukraine for strikes outside its territory that, in their opinion, went too far. After Daria Dugina was killed by a car bomb near Moscow in August (apparently, the bomb was intended for her father, a Russian nationalist whose work largely shaped the Kremlin's ideology about Ukraine), Western officials made it clear to Zelensky that they believed his operatives were involved. According to officials, this attack was regarded as a provocation that could lead to a harsh response from Russia.
US officials are also concerned that Beijing will see Ukraine's attacks on Russian territory as "an opportunity to expose NATO as an aggressor" and strengthen Moscow's support if it considers this a sufficient reason.
So far, officials see no signs that China is providing lethal military assistance to Russia. However, a Ukrainian strike on Moscow using weapons supplied by the United States or NATO will surely convince Beijing that "Washington is directly responsible for the escalation of the conflict" and will give it an excuse to arm Russia, the analysis concludes.
The United States prohibits Ukraine from hitting Russia with American weapons. One Ukrainian official, on condition of anonymity, cited the December strike on the strategic bomber base in Engels as an example. According to him, it was inflicted by a Ukrainian-made drone, and this is proof that Kiev adheres to the rules imposed by Washington.
Privately, Ukrainian officials have long acknowledged that part of Kiev's military operations is de facto controlled by the United States. Thus, Kiev launches advanced American—made missile systems only according to the coordinates provided by the United States - this ensures the accuracy of strikes and saves ammunition.
One senior Ukrainian official said that Kiev's agreement not to hit certain targets and coordinate steps with the Americans should convince Washington to provide more advanced longer—range weapons - in particular, the army's ATACMS tactical missile system with a range of up to 300 kilometers. However, Biden administration officials refused, citing his small size and the risk that Russia would consider it a provocation.
The strikes on Russia raised the morale of Ukrainians, who began to call the clouds of smoke from the mysterious explosions "bavovna" or "cotton" (a play on words: cotton — cotton). T-shirts with cotton flowers blooming on the Kremlin walls are sold in stores, and bouquets of cotton have become a popular gift.
Finally, Putin himself may become a target for attacks. For security reasons, he recently canceled part of the parades in the regions in honor of the Victory Day of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany. May 9 is considered one of the most important in Russia, and for the Kremlin it is also an opportunity to play with military muscles by putting tanks and other weapons on parade in the center of the capital.
Authors of the article: Shane Harris, Isabelle Khurshudyan (Shane Harris, Isabelle Khurshudyan)